Modelling impact heterogeneity

Summary.  The treatments embodied in social interventions are characterized by their heterogeneity, delivered as they often are by different individuals operating in different social and geographical contexts. One implication of this heterogeneity is that average treatment effects will often be less useful than estimates of differential impacts across contexts. The paper shows how multilevel models can be used to estimate variability of impact and to account for systematic effects. These models are specified for multisite interventions, for studies using cluster allocation and for designs that incorporate matching. The paper indicates how qualitative and quantitative approaches to evaluation could be linked.     

ANCILLARITY AND MINIMAL SUFFICIENCY

A discussion of ancillarity in multinomial distributions provides the context for an example which queries the priority of the Sufficiency Principle.     

Operations research from the viewpoint of general systems theory

This paper examines the operations research process from the viewpoint of General Systems Theory. The components of the OR process and the relations between them are critically examined. The five components are: (1) the “reality” of the problem situation, (2) the conceptual model of the problem situation, (3) the scientific model of the conceptual model, (4) the solution to the scientific model, and (5) the implementation of the solution. The paper argues that we have sub-optimized both our knowledge (study) and our application of the OR process. That is, there have been extremely few studies and applications of OR which have concerned themselves with OR from a whole systems point of view. The paper argues that without a whole systems perspective OR can neither be understood nor effectively applied.     

Childbearing Following Marital Dissolution in Britain

This paper investigates the subsequent fertility of British women who have experienced the dissolution of their first marriage in recent decades. Data for 7739 women from the 1990–1995 General Household Surveys are used to examine the socio-demographic factors associated with experiencing a post-dissolution birth. Just under one half of women who had experienced marital dissolution went on to experience a conception within twelve years. A women's age and her repartnering status are shown to be the factors most strongly associated with the probability of a post-dissolution conception. The age of a woman's youngest child is found to be more strongly associated with her likelihood of experiencing a conception than her parity at marital dissolution.     

Growing Pains: How Risk Perception and Risk Communication Research Can Help to Manage the Challenges of Global Population Growth

In 2011, the global human population reached 7 billion and medium variant projections indicate that it will exceed 9 billion before 2045. Theoretical and empirical perspectives suggest that this growth could lead to an increase in the likelihood of adverse events (e.g., food shortages, climate change, etc.) and/or the severity of adverse events (e.g., famines, natural disasters, etc.). Several scholars have posited that the size to which the global population grows and the extent to which this growth increases the likelihood of adverse outcomes will largely be shaped by individuals’ decisions (in households, organizations, governments, etc.). In light of the strong relationship between perceived risk and decision behaviors, it is surprising that there remains a dearth of empirical research that specifically examines the perceived risks of population growth and how these perceptions might influence related decisions. In an attempt to motivate this important strand of research, this article examines the major risks that may be exacerbated by global population growth and draws upon empirical work concerning the perception and communication of risk to identify potential directions for future research. The article also considers how individuals might perceive both the risks and benefits of population growth and be helped to better understand and address the related issues. The answers to these questions could help humanity better manage the emerging consequences of its continuing success in increasing infant survival and adult longevity.