Using expected values to simplify decision making under uncertainty

A simulation study examines the impact of a simplification strategy that replaces distributional attribute evaluations with their expected values and uses those expectations in an additive value model. Several alternate simplified forms and approximation approaches are investigated, with results showing that in general the simplified models are able to provide acceptable performance that is fairly robust to a variety of internal and external environmental changes, including changes to the distributional forms of the attribute evaluations, errors in the assessment of the expected values, and problem size. Certain of the simplified models are shown to be highly sensitive to the form of the underlying preference functions, and in particular to extreme non-linearity in these preferences.     

Calibration of FISK, an Invasiveness Screening Tool for Nonnative Freshwater Fishes

Adapted from the weed risk assessment (WRA) of Pheloung, Williams, and Halloy, the fish invasiveness scoring kit (FISK) was proposed as a screening tool for freshwater fishes. This article describes improvements to FISK, in particular the incorporation of confidence (certainty/uncertainty) ranking of the assessors' responses, and reports on the calibration of the score system, specifically: determination of most appropriate score thresholds for classifying nonnative species into low-, medium-, and high-risk categories, assessment of the patterns of assessors' confidences in their responses in the FISK assessments. Using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, FISK was demonstrated to distinguish accurately (and with statistical confidence) between potentially invasive and noninvasive species of nonnative fishes, with the statistically appropriate threshold score for high-risk species scores being ≥19. Within the group of species classed as high risk using this new threshold, a "higher risk" category could be visually identified, at present consisting of two species (topmouth gudgeon Pseudorasbora parva and gibel carp Carassius gibelio ). FISK represents a useful and viable tool to aid decision- and policymakers in assessing and classifying freshwater fishes according to their potential invasiveness.     

Confidentiality Constraints Within Mergers and Acquisitions: Gaining Insights Through a ‘Bubble’ Metaphor*

Mergers and acquisitions are extremely sensitive, both within and outside the organizations involved. Confidentiality agreements are therefore essential for allowing teams the ‘space’ to develop potential scenarios for future integration. Despite the importance of confidentiality in practice, the subject has received little coverage in the management literature. By adopting a case‐study approach, this research explores aspects of confidentiality in a four‐year post‐acquisition integration programme in a FTSE100 pharmaceutical company. The paper identifies a range of personal impacts on the signatories, as well as various dimensions of information transfer despite the agreement being in place. Through the use of a metaphor, the research suggests that a confidentiality agreement has many similarities with the properties and characteristics of a bubble. This bubble trope is used to enhance conceptual understanding of confidentiality constraints in an organizational‐change context. The paper concludes by suggesting some ‘key learnings’ in relation to using confidentiality agreements in strategic change programmes such as a merger or acquisition.     

Statutory Bodies: How Distinctive and In What Ways?

This article sets the organizational scene for the symposium. It does this by addressing statutory bodies, first in terms of their distinctive statutory foundations, and thereafter with reference to arrangements which they have in common with other types of organizations. Their distinctiveness results from the required legislative action, coupled with forms of political maneuvering and policy analysis. Their other features include their structures, ownership, work, legal power and relationships. Overall, they are legitimate, purposeful and responsible entities with a need to respond to various integration and autonomy arenas in which they are located.     

Introduction to Special Issue on Sustainable Corporate Governance

Papers in this special issue focus on sustainable corporate governance measures in the aftermath of the financial crisis, and a background environment of increased scepticism over executive pay and corporate behaviour more generally. The authors provide an overview of recent corporate governance reforms, including ‘say‐on‐pay’ and gender‐pay‐gap transparency, and explain how the research papers in the special issue contribute to understanding of corporate governance research and practice in the areas of boards of directors, corporate governance reform and corporate culture and risk‐taking.     

GIS‐Based Integration of Social Vulnerability and Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Advance Emergency Preparedness,Planning, and Response for Severe Nuclear Power Plant Accidents

In the nuclear power industry, Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is used to estimate damage to public health and the environment if a severe accident leads to large radiological release. Current Level 3 PRA does not have an explicit inclusion of social factors and, therefore, it is not possible to perform importance ranking of social factors for risk‐informing emergency preparedness, planning, and response (EPPR). This article offers a methodology for adapting the concept of social vulnerability, commonly used in natural hazard research, in the context of a severe nuclear power plant accident. The methodology has four steps: (1) calculating a hazard‐independent social vulnerability index for the local population; (2) developing a location‐specific representation of the maximum radiological hazard estimated from current Level 3 PRA, in a geographic information system (GIS) environment; (3) developing a GIS‐based socio‐technical risk map by combining the social vulnerability index and the location‐specific radiological hazard; and (4) conducting a risk importance measure analysis to rank the criticality of social factors based on their contribution to the socio‐technical risk. The methodology is applied using results from the 2012 Surry Power Station state‐of‐the‐art reactor consequence analysis. A radiological hazard model is generated from MELCOR accident consequence code system, translated into a GIS environment, and combined with the Center for Disease Control social vulnerability index (SVI). This research creates an opportunity to explicitly consider and rank the criticality of location‐specific SVI themes based on their influence on risk, providing input for EPPR.     

When bubbles burst: Mimetic insights into minimising confidentiality breaches

This paper presents a theoretical model to help managers visualise and manage confidential situations more effectively. The model metaphorically likens a confidential setting to the properties of a soap bubble, e.g. elastic expansion or contraction, minimal surface area to contain a given volume, fragility, surface tension, pressure, stress, strain and the potential for bursting thereby releasing the contents to the external environment. We explore the conceptual developments in two phases. Firstly, looking at how a bubble and confidential scenario form and grow. Secondly, we consider how a bubble may burst and map these forces to ways in which confidentiality may be breached. Many attributes are mapped, the key ones being: the embedded value within the system, the criticality of maintaining confidentiality, increasing pressure, the corresponding stress/strain dynamics and the levels of trust between stakeholders. Key research propositions are derived from the model which aims to minimise the risk of a confidentiality breach.     

Supervising Professional Work under New Public Management: Evidence from an ‘Invisible Trade’

This paper assesses the extent to which the new public management (NPM) project has succeeded in replacing the custodial mode of professional work supervision with a more bureaucratic approach. The paper conceptualizes the key components of each mode within two ideal types of professional work supervision. It then draws on findings from a study of local‐authority social service departments to consider current arrangements against these ideal type configurations. The findings demonstrate that elements of the bureaucratic mode have emerged unevenly. So far, they have not displaced the emphasis that the supervisors of professional work place on protecting autonomy and limiting management control systems. This suggests that custodial approaches to the supervision of professional work may be more resilient than has been assumed within previous analyses of NPM.