Using expected values to simplify decision making under uncertainty

A simulation study examines the impact of a simplification strategy that replaces distributional attribute evaluations with their expected values and uses those expectations in an additive value model. Several alternate simplified forms and approximation approaches are investigated, with results showing that in general the simplified models are able to provide acceptable performance that is fairly robust to a variety of internal and external environmental changes, including changes to the distributional forms of the attribute evaluations, errors in the assessment of the expected values, and problem size. Certain of the simplified models are shown to be highly sensitive to the form of the underlying preference functions, and in particular to extreme non-linearity in these preferences.     

Best Nonparametric Bounds on Demand Responses

This paper uses revealed preference inequalities to provide the tightest possible (best) nonparametric bounds on predicted consumer responses to price changes using consumer‐level data over a finite set of relative price changes. These responses are allowed to vary nonparametrically across the income distribution. This is achieved by combining the theory of revealed preference with the semiparametric estimation of consumer expansion paths (Engel curves). We label these expansion path based bounds on demand responses as E‐bounds. Deviations from revealed preference restrictions are measured by preference perturbations which are shown to usefully characterize taste change and to provide a stochastic environment within which violations of revealed preference inequalities can be assessed.     

Estimating Consumer Exposure to PFOS and PFOA

Perfluorinated compounds have been used for more than 50 years as process aids, surfactants, and for surface protection. This study is a comprehensive assessment of consumer exposure to perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) from a variety of environmental and product-related sources. To identify relevant pathways leading to consumer exposure to PFOS and PFOA a scenario-based approach has been applied. Scenarios represent realistic situations where age- and gender-specific exposure occurs in the everyday life of consumers. We find that North American and European consumers are likely to experience ubiquitous and long-term uptake doses of PFOS and PFOA in the range of 3 to 220 ng per kg body weight per day (ng/kg_bw/day) and 1 to 130 ng/kg_bw/day, respectively. The greatest portion of the chronic exposure to PFOS and PFOA is likely to result from the intake of contaminated foods, including drinking water. Consumer products cause a minor portion of the consumer exposure to PFOS and PFOA. Of these, it is mainly impregnation sprays, treated carpets in homes, and coated food contact materials that may lead to consumer exposure to PFOS and PFOA. Children tend to experience higher total uptake doses (on a body weight basis) than teenagers and adults because of higher relative uptake via food consumption and hand-to-mouth transfer of chemical from treated carpets and ingestion of dust. The uptake estimates based on scenarios are within the range of values derived from blood serum data by applying a one-compartment pharmacokinetic model.     

Applying Relational Models to the Graduation of Disability Schedules

Age-specific rates of particular disability types are important for planning purposes and are a valuable input to estimates and projections of populations with different disabilities. However, survey estimates of schedules of disability rates display evidence of sampling variability and sub-national disability schedules are often unavailable for reasons of disclosure protection. This paper develops and evaluates a method to smooth sampling variability in national schedules of disability using a technique that has applicability to sub-national estimation of age-specific disability rates. Relational models are used to adjust the limiting long-term illness schedule for England (Census 2001) to represent different disability schedules (Health Survey for England 2000/2001) smoothing sampling fluctuations. For hearing disability a simple Brass relational model involving two parameters provides a good fit. For other disability types a modified version of the Ewbank relational model with three parameters is required. This paper illustrates that relational models can accurately capture the relationship between age-specific rates of limiting long-term illness and various disability types.     

Parental Speech at 6 Months Predicts Joint Attention at 12 Months

In a prospective longitudinal study of a representative community sample (N = 264), mothers' references to infants' mental states were coded during a topic‐sharing task in the home at 6 months. Joint attention behaviour was assessed in the laboratory at 12 months. Individual joint attention skills (gaze following, gaze alternating, and declarative pointing) were significantly inter‐correlated, with a single factor accounting for 68% of the variance. Mothers' references to infants' mental states at 6 months predicted infants' joint attention at 12 months. The association was not explained by sociodemographic characteristics of the family, the mother's mental state, or by the quantity or acoustic properties of her speech. However, variability in pitch of maternal speech was an independent predictor of the infants' later joint attention skills. Taken together, these findings suggest that mothers' infant‐directed speech fosters infants' attentive participation in topic‐sharing interactions, which in turn provide an important arena in which joint attention skills develop over the first year of life.     

Infants' Transitions out of a Fussing/Crying State Are Modifiable and Are Related to Weight Status

Currently, about 10% of infants have a weight for length greater than the 95th percentile for their age and sex, which puts them at risk for obesity as they grow. In a pilot obesity prevention study, primiparous mothers and their newborn infants were randomly assigned to a control group or a Soothe/Sleep intervention. Previously, it has been demonstrated that this intervention contributed to lower weight‐for‐length percentiles at 1 year; the aim of the present study was to examine infant behavior diary data collected during the intervention. Markov modeling was used to characterize infants' patterns of behavioral transitions at ages 3 and 16 weeks. Results showed that heavier mothers were more likely to follow their infants' fussing/crying episodes with a feeding. The intervention increased infants' likelihood of transitioning from a fussing/crying state to an awake/calm state. A shorter latency to feed in response to fussing/crying was associated with a higher subsequent weight status. This study provides preliminary evidence that infants' transitions out of fussing/crying are characterized by inter‐individual differences, are modifiable, and are linked to weight outcomes, suggesting that they may be promising targets for early behavioral obesity interventions, and highlighting the methodology used in this study as an appropriate and innovative tool to assess the impact of such interventions.     

Happiness and Job Satisfaction in a Casino-Dominated Economy

Proposals for casinos usually focus on numbers of jobs without considering their quality. We surveyed 1,506 Macau residents, modelling happiness and job satisfaction. Being employed is shown to be important for ‘happiness’. But job attributes also matter, confirming the work domain as influential on wellbeing. Casino employees report similar happiness as others. However, despite relatively high pay, they report low overall job satisfaction. The particular aspects of their jobs that they rated generally negatively tended to be those inherent in casino employment rather than easily modifiable by managerial action.     

The effect of the interview on the interviewee

This paper is concerned with the effects of participating in semistructured interviews on the interviewees. It is based on evidence supplied by young adult women who were interviewed a number of times and asked about their previous interviews. While most claimed to have little recall of these earlier events, they did remember them as interesting and/or enjoyable. This was because the interview focused on them with the guaranteed but detached interest of the interviewer. Informants' reflections on previous interviews showed that there was a range of impact on women's views from (a)recording information; (b)clarification of views; (c)review of position; and (d)discovery of something new. Beyond interviews interacting with the informant's views there is also evidence that some interviewees' actions outside the interview were influenced by their participation. The fact that interviews involve the interaction of participants is now recognized in a number of intellectual approaches but the variability of this has not been documented.     

Off the Block but within the Neighbourhood: The Local Slave Trade in São Paulo

This article compares slave-trading networks in the 1860s and 1870s in Santos and Mogi das Cruzes, two largely dissimilar townships in the south-eastern province of São Paulo, Brazil. These local markets had different structural patterns, even though buyers in both places depended on personal connections to procure single or very small lots of slaves. Santos had a more defined network of slave traders, while buyers and sellers in Mogi das Cruzes relied more on family connections. These findings are linked with studies on the internal market in Brazil and other parts of the Americas to show that local slave trading was more important than has been assumed, yet requires greater study to understand fully.     

Editorial

This article describes the development of a new degree course (incorporating the DipSW) which has been designed to address the issue of 'relevance' in professional level education for the residential child care sector in Scotland. Funded by the Scottish Executive, a new body--the Scottish Institute for Residential Child Care--has been charged with devising and delivering a continuum of training, education and other resources to the sector in order to improve the quality of the residential experience of young people. One central element in this provision is the development of a BA/DipSW course that meets CCETSW requirements via a 'particular pathway' in residential child care. The article outlines some of the innovatory features of the course, the first of its kind in the UK, and identifies some of the perspectives that will inform the course curriculum. Brief comparisons are made with developments in the field of child and youth care elsewhere and attention is paid to issues around the provision of practice learning opportunities.