The Demand for Lotto: The Role of Conscious Selection

This article presents estimates of the elasticity of demand for lottery tickets using time series data in which there is variation in the expected value of a lottery ticket induced by rollovers. An important feature of our data is that there are far more rollovers than expected given the lottery design. We find strong evidence that individuals do not choose their lottery numbers uniformly from a uniform distribution—that is, conscious selection. We use our estimates to derive the inverse supply function for the industry, and this enables us to identify the demand elasticity. We find the price elasticity to be close to unity, which implies that the operator is revenue maximizing—which is the regulator's objective.     

Perception,Preference, and Patriotism: An Exploratory Analysis of the 1980 Winter Olympics

This article analyzes scores given by judges of figure skating at the 1980 Winter Olympics. Judges' scores are found to be highly correlated, with little evidence of scoring along political lines. However, an analysis of variance shows a small but consistent “patriotic” bias; judges tend to give higher scores to contestants from their own country. The influence of such effects on final placings is estimated.     

On Jointly Estimating Parameters and Missing Data by Maximizing the Complete-Data Likelihood

One approach to handling incomplete data occasionally encountered in the literature is to treat the missing data as parameters and to maximize the complete-data likelihood over the missing data and parameters. This article points out that although this approach can be useful in particular problems, it is not a generally reliable approach to the analysis of incomplete data. In particular, it does not share the optimal properties of maximum likelihood estimation, except under the trivial asymptotics in which the proportion of missing data goes to zero as the sample size increases.     

Necessary and Sufficient Condition for Nonsingular Fisher Information Matrix in ARMA and Fractional ARIMA Models

It is demonstrated that a necessary and sufficient condition for the Fisher information matrix of a causal and invertible ARMA to be nonsingular is that the model not be redundant; that is, the autoregressive and moving-average polynomials have no roots in common. This result is also extended to fractional ARIMA models.     

The global “war for talent”

In this paper we examine the “global war for talent,” the factors that impact it, and organizations' responses to it. Using a comprehensive search of more than 400 contemporary academic and business press articles, the paper reviews relevant research and reassesses the “talent war.” We posit that the dominant approaches to the “talent war” based on a scarcity state of mind and action, often characterized by a tactical and exclusive top talent or “star” focus, are being challenged by the emergence of a more evolutionary paradigm. This new paradigm adopts more strategic, innovative, cooperative and generative approaches which we describe as creative ‘talent solutions.’ The paper also highlights implications for future research, teaching and development in the field.