Corporate planning and control systems in Williams & Glyn's Bank

The paper describes the planning procedures presently existing in Williams & Glyn's Bank. Emphasis is placed on the link between the Corporate Plan and the shorter-term budgets; the Corporate Plan provides the framework within which the budget is compiled and the budget is then used as a means of implementing the plan and monitoring progress. Emphasis is also given to the dissemination of the Corporate Plan both to all staff at Branch Manager, or equivalent level, and above and to members of the National Union of Bank Employees Joint Consultative Committee.Lectures based on this paper have been given to the Organization and Use of the Corporate Planning Process Study Group and to the Yorkshire and Humberside Regional Group; both Groups belong to the Society for Long Range Planning.     

Prediction in Some Poisson Errors in Variables Models

Predictive distributions are developed and illustrated for prediction in some Poisson errors in variables models. Two different situations in which multiplicative treatment effects are appropriate are considered within the context of predicting counts of road accidents. Hierarchical prior structures are investigated, and numerical integration and Gibbs sampling routines are used to derive the predictive and posterior probabilities. Examples of analyses are provided with data from road accidents in Sweden.     

The Use of Lay Assessors

This paper reports on some findings from a research study conductedby the authors for the Commission for Social Care Inspection.It examines the reasons for the involvement of lay assessorsand perceptions of the effectiveness of lay assessors in specificregulatory functions.     

Helping parents to manage infant crying and sleeping: a review of the evidence and its implications for services

Infant crying and night waking are common concerns for parents, costly problems for health services and may trigger infant abuse or lead to serious child disturbances. Parents are given contradictory advice on how to manage infant crying and sleeping, indicating the need for evidence‐based guidance. This review of recent research draws distinctions between infant crying and sleeping problems, between the problem identified by parents and the infant behaviour underlying the problem, between different types of crying behaviour and their causes, and between the types of cases which present at different ages. It proposes that the two main approaches to parenting advocated by baby‐care experts, ‘infant‐demand’ and ‘structured’ parenting, have different benefits, and costs. Comparative studies have found that infant‐demand parenting is associated with low amounts of fussing and crying in the first three months of age, but with night waking which continues beyond three months. Randomised controlled trials have provided evidence that structured parenting leads to more overall fussing and crying during the first three months, but reduced night waking and crying after that. The findings are translated into recommendations for preventing and treating infant crying and sleeping problems, for policy debate, and for further research. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Futures forecasting for strategic planning at general electric

Without in any way denying that there are forces for stability, I want to state, as strongly as I can, my conviction that change is now more rapid, more complex and more pervasive than ever before in human history. There are forces loose in the world, particularly in the ‘post-industrial society’ of the United States, that go far beyond the youth movement in creating change. As a result, it is utterly unrealistic to pretend that business can continue to plan its strategies in the traditional mode.     

Methods for exploring treatment effect heterogeneity in subgroup analysis: an application to global clinical trials

Multi‐country randomised clinical trials (MRCTs) are common in the medical literature, and their interpretation has been the subject of extensive recent discussion. In many MRCTs, an evaluation of treatment effect homogeneity across countries or regions is conducted. Subgroup analysis principles require a significant test of interaction in order to claim heterogeneity of treatment effect across subgroups, such as countries in an MRCT. As clinical trials are typically underpowered for tests of interaction, overly optimistic expectations of treatment effect homogeneity can lead researchers, regulators and other stakeholders to over‐interpret apparent differences between subgroups even when heterogeneity tests are insignificant. In this paper, we consider some exploratory analysis tools to address this issue. We present three measures derived using the theory of order statistics, which can be used to understand the magnitude and the nature of the variation in treatment effects that can arise merely as an artefact of chance. These measures are not intended to replace a formal test of interaction but instead provide non‐inferential visual aids, which allow comparison of the observed and expected differences between regions or other subgroups and are a useful supplement to a formal test of interaction. We discuss how our methodology differs from recently published methods addressing the same issue. A case study of our approach is presented using data from the Study of Platelet Inhibition and Patient Outcomes (PLATO), which was a large cardiovascular MRCT that has been the subject of controversy in the literature. An R package is available that implements the proposed methods. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.