建设人口均衡型社会:条件、问题及对策

在建设资源节约、环境友好型社会的进程中,人口的均衡发展是一个关键。自上世纪70年代初开始的计划生育政策,加速了我国人口生育率下降,有效地控制了人口过快增长,促进了经济增长与人口增长的协调发展。但是,从1990年代我国进入低生育率开始已有20来年,长期的低生育率的人口非均衡发展下将产生了更为复杂的人口现象,引发了人口规模与结构、劳动供给与需求、人口流动与区域发展等之间的失衡和矛盾,成为制约未来我国经济与社会发展的人口难题,破解这些人口难题是建设人口均衡型社会的应有之意。     

中国农村老年人家庭代际交换的年龄轨迹研究

文章基于生命历程理论的研究视角,借助西安交通大学人口与发展研究所与美国南加州大学合作在巢湖农村进行的历时9年的四期纵贯调查数据,构建起代际交换变动的多层曲线增长模型,对老年人在60岁及以后的整个生命阶段中,个体年龄、出生队列和家庭生命阶段三方面因素对家庭代际交换的效应进行了分解,并描绘了代际交换的年龄发展轨迹。结果表明,代际交换的发展动力源自于社会、家庭、个体三个层面,其动态轨迹既是个体发展过程和历史过程,也是家庭策略,其水平的高低取决于个人时间、历史时间和家庭时间的同步。     

代际支持对农村老年人生活满意度影响的纵向分析

文章利用2001年、2003年和2006年安徽省农村老年人生活状况跟踪调查数据,采用个体增长模型,结合农村实际状况,考察代际支持对农村老年人生活满意度的影响。结果发现老年人获得子女提供的经济支持、代际间双向的家务帮助和情感支持提升了老年人的生活满意度;在代际支持对生活满意度的影响中,老年人获得子女提供的经济支持对获得子女提供的家务帮助具有替代作用;结果反映了农村家庭代际支持仍是以老年人的需求为中心,揭示了养儿防老的儒家孝文化在中国农村仍盛行,而老年人为子女的牺牲精神现实生活中不可被轻视,揭示了代际支持对老年人生活满意度的影响机制为主效应模型的增益作用。     

Alternatives to post‐processing posterior predictive p values

The posterior predictive p value (ppp) was invented as a Bayesian counterpart to classical p values. The methodology can be applied to discrepancy measures involving both data and parameters and can, hence, be targeted to check for various modeling assumptions. The interpretation can, however, be difficult since the distribution of the ppp value under modeling assumptions varies substantially between cases. A calibration procedure has been suggested, treating the ppp value as a test statistic in a prior predictive test. In this paper, we suggest that a prior predictive test may instead be based on the expected posterior discrepancy, which is somewhat simpler, both conceptually and computationally. Since both these methods require the simulation of a large posterior parameter sample for each of an equally large prior predictive data sample, we furthermore suggest to look for ways to match the given discrepancy by a computation‐saving conflict measure. This approach is also based on simulations but only requires sampling from two different distributions representing two contrasting information sources about a model parameter. The conflict measure methodology is also more flexible in that it handles non‐informative priors without difficulty. We compare the different approaches theoretically in some simple models and in a more complex applied example.     

Splitting the Marital Home: Gendered Property Division and Postdivorce Foreclosure

Divorce proceedings often involve splitting the marital home and contested claims over property and other assets. This case study examines the divorce–foreclosure nexus through key informant interviews, analysis of divorce files and foreclosure notices, and a review of court records on debt, remarriage, and criminal offending. We found that property disposition is a gendered process, with men receiving the marital home 1.7 times more often than women, even though they had more court debt, job instability, and criminal offending than their wives. Male defendants who hired an attorney received the house 85% of the time (52% for women defendants with an attorney). In postdivorce, men were more likely than women to remarry, have second mortgages, and to reoffend. We conclude that “equal” rather than “equitable” property division would reduce women’s structural disadvantage in divorce settlements and postdivorce home ownership.     

Lower bone mineral density in older female endurance skiers – a cross-sectional,observational study

Background

Physical activity (PA) is generally beneficial for bone health, but the effect of high levels of PA over many years, in older women, is unknown.

Methods

T-score from Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and self-reported baseline characteristics were recorded for 24 female, cross-country-skiing-competitors, aged 68–76?years, from the Birkebeiner Ageing Study. Data from 647 women in the same age range from the Tromso-6 population study, with recorded DXA findings, were used for comparison.

Results

The athletes reported a median(range) of 9(1–34) participations in the 54?km, yearly ski-race, indicating long-term PA. They also reported more moderate and high levels of PA than women in the general population (52% vs. 12 and 30% vs. 0%, respectively). The athletes had lower body mass index (BMI) than the controls (mean BMI 21.7 vs 26.9?kg/m², p?<?0.001). As many as 22/24(92%) of the athletes and 477/647(74%) of the controls had a low bone mineral density (BMD) (T-score?<???1), p 0.048, Pearson chi square test. Odds ratio (OR) of low BMD was 3.9 in athletes vs. controls (p 0.048, logistic regression), but adjusting for BMI largely diminished the effect estimate, which was no longer statistically significant (aOR 1.81, p 0.432). The proportion of self-reported fractures was the same in the two groups.

Conclusions

This pilot study suggests that long-term, high levels of PA are associated with low bone mineral density in older women, and the finding might be due to differences in BMI. Despite the lower bone mineral density the athletes did not report more fractures.

     

Young bisexual people’s experiences of microaggression: Implications for social work

ABSTRACT

This article focuses on negative identity experiences reported by young bisexual people in a 28-day daily study, and the implications of these experiences for social work practice. Participants ranged in age from 18–30 years, had Internet access, could read and write in English, and identified as bisexual or felt the label applied to them. Participants who completed at least one diary entry (n = 91) included 49 women, 30 men, and seven genderqueer people. Using a constructivist grounded theory approach, data were organized according to the social ecological model. Erasure, stereotyping, and oppressive discourse microaggressions occurred at both the institutional and interpersonal levels. The majority of reported microaggressions occurred at the interpersonal level, with erasure and stereotyping being most common. Participants also reported three types of intrapersonal microaggressions: internalized oppressions, internalized stereotypes, and ambivalence about coming out. Findings can inform social workers’ efforts to increase their capacity to support bisexual people.     

Predicting job satisfaction of mental health peer support workers (PSWs)

ABSTRACT

The Mental Health Recovery Model is an empowering service philosophy which has been transforming the field of mental health. An important service approach to actualizing this model is hiring peer support workers (PSWs) who are peers advanced in recovery and employed to assist other peers in their recovery process. This study reports on factors hypothesized to affect PSW job satisfaction. Using multiple regression analyses, organizational culture and relationship with peers predicted 29% of job satisfaction. Based on these findings, suggestions are offered to assist social work administrators in effectively integrating and supporting PSWs in the workplace.