Refined Inference on Long Memory in Realized Volatility

There is an emerging consensus in empirical finance that realized volatility series typically display long range dependence with a memory parameter (d) around 0.4 (Andersen et al., 2001 Andersen , T. G. , Bollerslev , T. , Diebold , F. X. , Labys , P. ( 2001 ). The distribution of realized exchange rate volatility . Journal of the American Statistical Association 96 ( 453 ): 42 – 55 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Martens et al., 2004 Martnes , M. , Van Dijk , D. , De Pooter , M. ( 2004 ). Modeling and forecasting S&P 500 volatility: Long memory, structural breaks and nonlinearity. Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2004-067/4 . [Google Scholar]). The present article provides some illustrative analysis of how long memory may arise from the accumulative process underlying realized volatility. The article also uses results in Lieberman and Phillips (2004 Lieberman , O. , Phillips , P. C. B. ( 2004 ). Expansions for the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the fractional difference parameter . Econometric Theory 20 ( 3 ): 464 – 484 . [Google Scholar], 2005 Lieberman , O. , Phillips , P. C. B. ( 2005 ). Expansions for approximate maximum likelihood estimators of the fractional difference parameter . The Econometrics Journal 8 : 367 – 379 . [Google Scholar]) to refine statistical inference about d by higher order theory. Standard asymptotic theory has an O(n ^?1/2) error rate for error rejection probabilities, and the theory used here refines the approximation to an error rate of o(n ^?1/2). The new formula is independent of unknown parameters, is simple to calculate and user-friendly. The method is applied to test whether the reported long memory parameter estimates of Andersen et al. (2001 Andersen , T. G. , Bollerslev , T. , Diebold , F. X. , Labys , P. ( 2001 ). The distribution of realized exchange rate volatility . Journal of the American Statistical Association 96 ( 453 ): 42 – 55 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Martens et al. (2004 Martnes , M. , Van Dijk , D. , De Pooter , M. ( 2004 ). Modeling and forecasting S&P 500 volatility: Long memory, structural breaks and nonlinearity. Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2004-067/4 . [Google Scholar]) differ significantly from the lower boundary (d = 0.5) of nonstationary long memory, and generally confirms earlier findings.     

A bayesian analysis of trend determination in economic time series

In this paper we provide a comprehensive Bayesian posterior analysis of trend determination in general autoregressive models. Multiple lag autoregressive models with fitted drifts and time trends as well as models that allow for certain types of structural change in the deterministic components are considered. We utilize a modified information matrix-based prior that accommodates stochastic nonstationarity, takes into account the interactions between long-run and short-run dynamics and controls the degree of stochastic nonstationarity permitted. We derive analytic posterior densities for all of the trend determining parameters via the Laplace approximation to multivariate integrals. We also address the sampling properties of our posteriors under alternative data generating processes by simulation methods. We apply our Bayesian techniques to the Nelson-Plosser macroeconomic data and various stock price and dividend data. Contrary to DeJong and Whiteman (1989a,b,c), we do not find that the data overwhelmingly favor the existence of deterministic trends over stochastic trends. In addition, we find evidence supporting Perron's (1989) view that some of the Nelson and Plosser data are best construed as trend stationary with a change in the trend function occurring at 1929.     

On constructing sequences estimating the mixing distribution with applications

This paper shows that by minimizing a Chebychev norm a mixing distribution can be constructed which converges weakly to the true mixing distribution with probability one. Deely and Kruse (1968) established a similar result for the supremum norm. For both norms the constructed mixing distribution is computed by solving a linear programming problem, but this problem is considerably smaller when the Chebychev norm is used. Thus a suitable mixing distribution can be constructed from solving a linear programming problem with considerably less computational work than was previously known. To illustrate the application of this simpler procedure it is applied to derive nonparametric empirical Bayes estimates in a simulation study. Some density estimates are also illustrated.     

World Social Forum – possible perspectives

ABSTRACT

In the first part of this essay, I reflect on the divergences of opinion that have always existed in the process of the World Social Forum. This first part was written before the elections in Brazil last autumn. Since then Jair Bolsonaro has been installed as president of Brazil and the divergences I discuss in that first part have cooled down, at least in Brazil. Nevertheless, it remains important to record those divergences when we try to take further our debate about the future of the WSF process, as I do here as well, in the second part of my essay.     

Enhancing practitioner-led education in social work: developing a secondment project

ABSTRACT

This paper illustrates the development of a secondment project designed to enhance practitioner-led social work education in a Higher Education Institution. The project was developed as part of a Teaching Partnership initiative to establish joint working and standardized approaches to social work education between Higher Education Institutes and Local Authorities across a UK region. Highlighted is how the project utilized a six-stage strategy designed to gather information to produce an evidence-base to support the implementation of a pilot practitioner secondment arrangement. The paper discusses strategies used to gather information from a range of stakeholders to inform the project, the project outcome and some considerations for future secondment arrangements. Contributing to a limited source of literature, challenges and limitations of developing formal secondment arrangements and delivering practitioner-led education in Higher Education Institutes are highlighted. This paper will assist Higher Education Institutes and Local Authorities in the design and implementation of formal secondment arrangements where these are identified as in need of development.