Modeling Demand For Unionization With Nontraditional Data Analysis Methods

Upon reviewing the extant literature on determinants of unionism, it becomes clear that many areas that have had a plethora of research attention do not converge upon singularly directional findings. This study explores a potential cause of such an apparent anomaly: nonlinearity of data. An exploratory examination of correlation coefficients among typical union determinant variables seems to show different patterns of relationships at different levels of union demand. Thus, a break from traditional linear data analysis techniques is explored in the interest of explaining more variance with typical, theoretically derived variables by using neural network analysis. Results of analyses on industry level data reveal that using neural network analysis to model union demand explained over four times as much variance as multiple regression analysis.     

Disagreement over the immigration of low-income earners in a welfare state

This paper studies natives’ economically motivated preferences over different levels of immigration of low-income earners. Immigration affects natives through both intra- and intergenerational redistribution programmes and in the labour market. Our analysis suggests, in a welfare state that looks after the poor and the aged, economic motivation does not necessarily lead a native to have an extreme opinion on the preferable level of immigration, although it causes disagreement among natives. We find, regardless of parameter values, high-income earners prefer at least as much immigration as low-income earners who, in turn, prefer at least as much immigration as pensioners. The median voter is then likely to be a low-income native.

Changement technologique et emploi au Brésil,en Colombie et au Mexique: quels sont les travailleurs les plus affectés?

L'analyse, axée sur les tâches, de la structure de l'emploi urbain du Brésil, de la Colombie et du Mexique montre que celui-ci a nettement diminué entre 2002 et 2015 dans des professions semi-qualifiées et augmenté dans les professions faiblement et fortement qualifiées. La décomposition des résultats suggère que le déclin de l'emploi des secrétaires et des sténographes s'explique entièrement par les changements intrabranche (hypothèse de «routinisation»), tandis que dans la conduite des machines et l'artisanat l'explication tient aux changements interbranches. Sous l'angle sociodémographique, le changement technologique affecte négativement les femmes, mais il profite aux travailleurs plus jeunes et plus instruits.     

Smoothed bootstrap bandwidth selection for nonparametric hazard rate estimation

A smoothed bootstrap method is presented for the purpose of bandwidth selection in nonparametric hazard rate estimation for iid data. In this context, two new bootstrap bandwidth selectors are established based on the exact expression of the bootstrap version of the mean integrated squared error of some approximations of the kernel hazard rate estimator. This is very useful since Monte Carlo approximation is no longer needed for the implementation of the two bootstrap selectors. A simulation study is carried out in order to show the empirical performance of the new bootstrap bandwidths and to compare them with other existing selectors. The methods are illustrated by applying them to a diabetes data set.     

“Migrant Capital” and Domestic Work: Labour Trajectories of Immigrant Women in Spain

This article analyses the labour trajectory of migrant women in domestic service. The research considers women's working conditions upon arrival, or their “migrant capital” (i.e. their human, social and economic capital) as the defining factors in their labour trajectories. The study, conducted on a sample of migrant women in domestic service, reveals the different value each type of capital has at each stage of a labour trajectory. The social network is the core capital in their first job. Nevertheless, the key factors in labour mobility are human capital and a household's financial needs. The processes of administrative regularization and family reunification prompt far‐reaching changes in these women's labour trajectories. Finally, labour trajectories during the economic crisis have been shaped by financial needs, leading to a decapitalization of the human capital acquired, with even legal status surrendering its value.     

Design of ISD-1: an instrument for social diagnosis in care homes for older persons*

This article describes the design process and main features of an instrument developed for use in the specialist area of intervention in care homes for older persons. The essential aim of ISD-1 (instrument for social diagnosis) is to permit the correct formulation of social diagnoses and to standardise and define the professional language used by social workers. Its content has been organised into 4 dimensions of social diagnosis, divided into 15 sub-dimensions containing 83 diagnostic categories. This work was performed in Spain, in the 24 care homes of the Madrid Social Care Agency of the Community of Madrid, involving the participation of the 40 social workers practising in these centres. ISD-1 is an easily understood and used tool, of potential use for social workers practising in care homes for older persons and capable of being adapted for use in other institutional environments, as well as being capable of adaptation and translation for its application in other countries.     

“思想的无端骄傲”——评《中国思想史》第一卷

本文是对清华大学教授葛兆光新著《中国思想史》第一卷的学术评论。文章认为 ,葛先生“重写”思想史的基本路子即以论带史、以今视昔、以文领义 ,而“基本路子只有一条 ,一分为三 ,乃是方便说法”。事实上 ,思想史领域本来就别有洞天 ,“葛先生自许的突破之处 ,不过是划地为牢 ,然后纵身一跃 ,作突破状而已。”文章还批评了《中国思想史》中存在的理路不清、用词不当的一些“大议论”。本文作者总结道 :如果要我用一句话来评论这本书 ,我将说 :“在这本号称‘思想史’的书里 ,我看不到历史上的思想和知识 ,我只看到现在一位中国人葛兆光的‘思想’”。     

Driven by politics: agenda setting and policy-making in Hungary 2010–2014

Studies on media and politics generally find an effect of the media on the symbolic policy agenda. Analysing data from the Hungarian Comparative Agendas Project, we demonstrate that this effect is extremely weak in the Hungarian policy-making process. We identified those issues that received greater than average coverage in the media. However, we found that in the majority of cases governmental initiatives or decisions preceded the media coverage – that is, instead of the media agenda pulling the policy agenda, the general logic is the opposite: the media are talking about the policy initiatives of the government. The ambition of the paper is twofold. First, our findings reinforce those claims in the literature that point to the many institutional and political factors affecting the media-politics nexus. This suggests that policy-making might be very different in new(er) democracies. Second, our research analyses the policy-making side of Viktor Orbán’s governance. Changes in the polity, democratic backlash and illiberal tendencies are usually the focus concerning the political changes in Hungary since 2010, but no attention has been devoted to how this type of governance is reflected in policy-making. Our paper seeks to make a contribution also in this respect.     

Forced Migration and Mortality in the Very Long Term: Did Perestroika Affect Death Rates Also in Finland?

In this article, we analyze mortality rates of Finns born in areas that were ceded to the Soviet Union after World War II and from which the entire population was evacuated. These internally displaced persons are observed during the period 1971-2004 and compared with people born in the same region but on the adjacent side of the new border. We find that in the 1970s and 1980s, the forced migrants had mortality rates that were on par with those of people in the comparison group. In the late 1980s, the mortality risk of internally displaced men increased by 20% in relation to the expected time trend. This deviation, which manifests particularly in cardiovascular mortality, coincides with perestroika and the demise of the Soviet Union, which were events that resulted in an intense debate in civil society about restitution of the ceded areas. Because state actors were reluctant to engage, the debate declined after some few years, and after the mid-1990s, the death risk again approached the long-term trend. Our findings indicate that when internally displaced persons must adjust to situations for which appropriate coping behaviors are unknown, psychosocial stress might arise several decades after their evacuation.