EvacuAid: A Probabilistic Model to Determine the Expected Loss of Life for Different Mass Evacuation Strategies During Flood Threats

Evacuation of people in case of a threat is a possible risk management strategy. Evacuation has the potential to save lives, but it can be costly with respect to time, money, and credibility. The consequences of an evacuation strategy depend on a combination of the time available, citizen response, authority response, and capacity of the infrastructure. The literature that discusses evacuations in case of flood risk management focuses, in most cases, only on a best‐case strategy as a preventive evacuation and excludes other possible strategies. This article introduces a probabilistic method, EvacuAid, to determine the benefits of different types of evacuation with regards to loss of life. The method is applied for a case study in the Netherlands for preventive and vertical evacuation due to flood risk. The results illustrate the impact of uncertainties in available time and actual conditions (e.g., the responses of citizens and authorities and the use of infrastructure). It is concluded that preparation for evacuation requires adaptive planning that takes preventive and vertical evacuation into account, based on a risk management approach.     

So bad,so good: Slavery in the Southern United States

Women's Work, Men's Work: The Informal Slave Economies of Lowcountry Georgia. BETTY WOOD. Athens, Ga.: University of Georgia Press, 1995. x. 247 pp. $45.00 (cloth); $22.95 (paper). ISBN 1–878822–37–3; ISBN 0–8203–1667–9.

Working Toward Freedom: Slave Society and Domestic Economy in the American South. Edited by LARRY E. HUDSON, Jr. Rochester, NY, University of Rochester Press, 1994. xiii, 241pp. $19.95. ISBN 1–878822–38–1.     

Psychotherapeutic approaches to the cancer patient

Three basic therapeutic approaches applicable to the majority of cancer patients are outlined and illustrated with case vignettes. They are: (1) Initial catharsis and validation of feelings, (2) Restoring communication impaired by denial, and (3) Understanding the psychological meaning of the illness. Using this framework, the therapist's professional skills may be organized toward specific interventions, thereby stabilizing the associated ego functions against the regression often induced by the anxieties mobilized by working with seriously ill patients.     

Estimating the transmission probability of human immunodeficiency virus in injecting drug users in Thailand

We estimate the transmission probability for the human immunodeficiency virus from seroconversion data of a cohort of injecting drug users (IDUs) in Thailand. The transmission probability model developed accounts for interval censoring and incorporates each IDU's reported frequency of needle sharing and injecting acts. Using maximum likelihood methods, the per needle sharing act transmission probability estimate between infectious and susceptible IDUs is 0.008. The effects of covariates, disease dynamics, mismeasured exposure information and the uncertainty of the disease prevalence on the transmission probability estimate are considered.     

Between universalism and particularism: the historical bases of Muslim communal,national, and global identities

In recent decades there has been an extraordinary flourishing of transnational and global Islamic movements. Most of these are religious reform and missionary movements; some are political networks working to form Islamic states. Yet on closer examination we find that universalistic Islamic movements are almost always embedded in national state and parochial settings. Muslim, and national, ethnic, tribal and local identities blend together. This blending of universalistic and particularistic affiliations has deep‐rooted precedents in Islamic history. The original Muslim community of Medina represented a monotheistic vision encadred in a community of clans. The universal empire of the Caliphate gave rise to schools, brotherhoods, and sectarian communities. Sufi reform teachings of the late seventeenth to the twentieth century defined Islamo‐tribal movements. In the twentieth century universalistic Islamic reformism inspired nationalism and anti‐colonialism. The paper concludes with some comments on the mechanisms by which historical and cultural precedents are carried into modern times.     

An exploratory analysis of treatment completion and client and organizational factors using hierarchical linear modeling

Data from the Alcohol and Drug Services Study (ADSS) are used to analyze the structure and operation of the substance abuse treatment industry in the United States. Published literature contains little systematic empirical analysis of the interaction between organizational characteristics and treatment outcomes. This paper addresses that deficit. It develops and tests a hierarchical linear model (HLM) to address questions about the empirical relationship between treatment inputs (industry costs, types and use of counseling and medical personnel, diagnosis mix, patient demographics, and the nature and level of services used in substance abuse treatment), and patient outcomes (retention and treatment completion rates). The paper adds to the literature by demonstrating a direct and statistically significant link between treatment completion and the organizational and staffing structure of the treatment setting. Related reimbursement issues, questions for future analysis, and limitations of the ADSS for this analysis are discussed.     

Role Transitions,Objects, and Identity

Most research on role transitions, following a tradition pioneered by van Gennep, regards these major turning points in the life course primarily as times when people move between different sets of social networks. While these studies acknowledge that rites of passage occur within particular physical spaces in which material objects are present, the importance of such objects has received little attention. I explore one particular role transition—moving away to college—and illustrate that objects play a central role in how students construct their identities. Students at “Midwestern” University make strategic choices about which objects to leave at home as anchors of prior identities and which ones to bring to school as markers of new identities. Moreover, I suggest that the meanings of these two categories of objects differ by gender. I argue that this case opens up the possibility that objects play a much more central part in role transitions than social scientists have acknowledged. This study also challenges existing assumptions about different processes of identity formation. Therefore, it engenders the need for additional research about how people reinterpret objects during role transitions, and about the different meanings that objects may have for the constructions of masculinity and femininity.