Applications of Machine Learning Methods to Predict Readmission and Length-of-Stay for Homeless Families: The Case of Win Shelters in New York City

ABSTRACT

New York City faces the challenge of an ever-increasing homeless population with almost 60,000 people currently living in city shelters. In 2015, approximately 25% of families stayed longer than nine months in a shelter, and 17% of families with children that exited a homeless shelter returned to the shelter system within 30 days of leaving. This suggests that “long-term” shelter residents and those that re-enter shelters contribute significantly to the rise of the homeless population living in city shelters and indicate systemic challenges to finding adequate permanent housing. This article focuses on our preliminary work with Win (Women-in-Need) shelters to understand the factors that predict readmission and length-of-stay of homeless families. We create a unified, comprehensive database of the homeless population being served by Win shelters, accounting for more than 6,000 homeless families. We apply logistic regression models and an unsupervised clustering algorithm to identify predictors of re-entry and long-term length-of-stay. Citizenship, age, medical conditions, employment, and history of foster care or shelter stays as a child are found to be significant predictors. The results of the K-means clustering identify three primary groups, consistent with previous typologies characterized by transitionally homeless, episodically homeless, and chronically homeless.     

Ethnic and Religious Components of the Jewish Income Advantage, 1969 and 1989

Because Jewish ethnicity and religion do not necessarily coincide, the income advantage associated with Jewish identity can be separated into its ethnic and religious components. We estimate the impact of Jewish ethnicity and religion on household income in 1969 and 1989. In both years, ethnically Jewish households had a considerable income advantage over other non-Hispanic White households. This advantage appears to have persisted even among households without full-time workers. Mixed-ethnicity households (those with both Jewish-born and non-Jewish workers) had a conspicuous advantage in 1969 but not in 1989. While religion brought an additional income advantage to Reform, Conservative, and nondenominational Jews, Orthodoxy was associated with a relative disadvantage. Orthodox Judaism appears to impede economic attainment, perhaps by isolating its adherents from the social and economic networks established by the broader Jewish community.     

Accuracy of death certificate ages for the extreme aged

This study attempts to verify age reporting on the death certificate for the “extreme aged” population and to evaluate the accuracy of recent death rates for this group in light of the findings. In addition, methods used and problems encountered in carrying out a record linkage study, particularly a low match rate, are identified. A sample of more than three thousand death records was selected from those filed for decedents age 85 and over in Pennsylvania and New Jersey in the 1968 to 1972 period. Death certificates of 53 percent of whites and 30 percent of nonwhites were linked to the 1900 U.S. Census. A comparison of age on the death certificate with the age reported for the same individual in the census record showed a high level of agreement for whites, except at ages 100 and over; for nonwhites, however, age agreement levels were substantially lower. Within racial groups, there was little difference by sex in agreement on age. These results, corroborating those of earlier studies, make it clear that nonwhite mortality at the oldest ages has been consistently understated in official statistics.     

Wage determination in U.S. manufacturing 1958–1976: A collective bargaining approach

This paper presents a cross-section collective bargaining approach to the analysis of inter-industry wage movements of production workers in U.S. manufacturing over the period 1958–1976. A Hicksian model is used to classify the determinants of wage change according to their likely influence on the concession and strike costs of management and unions. Three variables which are classified as management concession and strike costs are consistently significant in empirical testing: change in value productivity, labor intensity, and the profit rate. On the basis of this finding it is suggested that inter-industry wage changes are generally a function of management concession costs. The authors acknowledge the helpful comments of an anonymous referee.     

Indicators of contraceptive policy for nations at three levels of development

The study is concerned with examining variations in contraceptive policies among 74 nations of the world. Employing quantitative data collected by the United Nations, the national policies for three types of contraceptive devices (birth control pills, condoms and IUDs) were examined for nations at three levels of development. The policies for the three items were found to be highly intercorrelated. Given this fact, a restrictiveness index related to the commercial sale of the three types of contraceptive was constructed. A set of independent variables was then related to this restrictive index employing multivariate analysis. The results differed appreciably for the developed and non-developed nations. For the developed nations restrictiveness was significantly related to the fertility rate and the number of physicians in the society, whereas for the developing nations it was significantly related to the infant mortality rate in the society.     

Rhythmic organization of social interaction and observer ratings of positive affect and involvement

Many investigators have speculated that a high degree of rhythmic patterning of social interaction and close coupling between the activity rhythms of partners are associated with positive affect, attachment, and interpersonal attraction. Others suggest that predictable or rhythmic patterning is an indication of inflexibility, and that close linkages between the physiological arousal of partners are associated with negative affect. In the present study, spectral and cross spectral analyses were applied to vocal activity and heart rates recorded during 12 conversations. Indexes of rhythmicity and strength of coupling were derived and used as predictors of observer ratings of pleasantness of affect and degree of involvement. There was a curvilinear relationship between affect and rhythmicity of vocal activity, such that moderately rhythmic social interactions were evaluated most positively. This relationship remained statistically significant even when other variables (such as mean and standard deviation of amount of vocal activity) were statistically controlled. Strength of coupling between partner vocal activity patterns and strength of coupling between the vocal activity and heart rate within speaker were not statistically significant predictors of ratings of pleasantness. Results suggest that there may be an optimum degree of rhythmicity in social interaction, with moderately rhythmic interactions evaluated most positively.We gratefully acknowledge support from the Central University Research Fund and from the Office of the Dean of Liberal Arts at the University of New Hampshire. Thanks to Kim Mooney, Charles Dufour, Mark Henn and Jay Goober for their contribution in developing the coding system.     

Book Reviews and Book Notes

Abstract

The American City. By Stuart Alfred Queen and David Bailey Carpenter. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc., 1953. Pp. viii, 383. $5.00. Reviewed by Wayne C. Neely.

Out of Step. By Joseph Trenaman. New York: The Philosophical Library, Inc., 1952. Pp. xx, 223. $4.75. Reviewed by J. F. Santee.

Readings in Sociology. College Outline Series, Alfred M. Lee, Editor. New York: Barnes and Noble, Inc. 1951. Pp. 1, 439. $1.75. Reviewed by Wilfred T. Grenfell.

The War of the Revolution, Christopher Ward, edited by John Richard Alden, New York: Macmillan, two volumes. $15.00. Reviewed by Ralph Adams Brown.

The Rise of Modern America, 1865–1951. By Arthur Meier Schlesinger, New York: The Macmillan Company, 1951. Pp. xvii, 607. $5.25. Reviewed by Mahlon H. Helleruh.

Some Modern Historians of Britain. Edited by Herman Ausbel, J. Bartlet Brebner, and E. M. Hunt. New York: The Dryden Press, 1951. Pp. xxii, 384. $5.00. Reviewed by Raymond G. Cowherd.

Display for Learning. By Marporie East. Edited by Edgar Dale, Dryden Press, 3 W. 54th St., New York 19, N. Y. Pp. 306. $3.00.

Interstate Cooperation. A Study of the Interstate Compact. By Vincent V. Thursby. Washington, D. C.: Public Affairs Press, 1953. Pp. vii, 152. $3.25.

Exploring Pennsylvania: Its Geography, History and Government. By Sylvester K. Stevens; Ralph W. Cordier; Florence O. Benjamin. New York: Harcourt, Brace and Company, 1953. Pp. xi, 624. $3.84. Reviewed by Mahlon H. Hellerich.     

Size of place in relation to community attachment and satisfaction with community services

A general problem in the area of urban studies has been the determination of factors significantly related to community attachment. Louis Wirth had argued that with increasing community size the level of community attachment diminishes. However, Kasarda and Janowitz employed British data and found that the length of residence in the community was a more important determinant of community attachment. Buttel et al. re-examined the question and found that the size of the community was the most important determiner of community attachment. This study analyzes the question employing national survey data collected in 1971 in the Quality of American Life study. Employing variables comparable to those of the Buttel et al. study, similar results are obtained, except that race, a variable not included in the previous study, is found to be quite significant for determining levels of community attachment. However, when urban density is introduced as a variable for the urban areas in the sample, it is found to be the most important determiner of community attachment.     

University-assisted community school program of West Philadelphia: democratic partnerships that make a difference

The university-assisted community school model is showing results for children and youth in West Philadelphia. The University of Pennsylvania's (Penn's) Center for Community Partnerships has coordinated universitywide efforts, in partnership with the community, in order to create and develop community school programs. The Sayre program aims to become a university-assisted community school, with a comprehensive community problem-solving curriculum and communitywide program that is fully integrated across both the Sayre curriculum and the curriculum of a number of Penn's schools. The Penn-Sayre project demonstrates that higher education can be a permanent anchor for revitalizing schools and communities if the vast resources it possesses, particularly its faculty, students, and staff, are brought to bear in a coordinated fashion.