The coexistence of Fox (Sciurus niger) and gray (S. caroliniensis) squirrels in the Chicago metropolitan area

Two species of tree squirrel inhabit the Chicago region, the fox (Sciurus niger) and gray (S. caroliniensis) squirrel. Chicago residents submitted squirrel observations and associated landscape variables via a Website, allowing us to map squirrel distributions. Data were analyzed for patterns of correlation. At a smaller scale, we did a foot survey of fox and gray squirrels in the suburb of Oak Park, replicating an earlier study and comparing results. Gray squirrels were associated with densely populated areas, parks and campuses, fox squirrels with suburban areas. Compared to gray squirrels, fox squirrels were more likely to be observed in areas of high cat density. In the suburb of Oak Park, the current trend seems to be an extension of gray squirrel distribution and a decrease in fox squirrel distribution. Our study provides support for the idea that fox and gray squirrel coexistence is facilitated by a trade-off between managing the cost of predation and foraging efficiency, gray squirrels out-competing fox squirrels in areas of high food and low predator (or pet) density.     

Uncertainty of Population Risk Estimates for Pathogens Based on QMRA or Epidemiology: A Case Study of Campylobacter in the Netherlands

Epidemiology and quantitative microbiological risk assessment are disciplines in which the same public health measures are estimated, but results differ frequently. If large, these differences can confuse public health policymakers. This article aims to identify uncertainty sources that explain apparent differences in estimates for Campylobacter spp. incidence and attribution in the Netherlands, based on four previous studies (two for each discipline). An uncertainty typology was used to identify uncertainty sources and the NUSAP method was applied to characterize the uncertainty and its influence on estimates. Model outcomes were subsequently calculated for alternative scenarios that simulated very different but realistic alternatives in parameter estimates, modeling, data handling, or analysis to obtain impressions of the total uncertainty. For the epidemiological assessment, 32 uncertainty sources were identified and for QMRA 67. Definitions (e.g., of a case) and study boundaries (e.g., of the studied pathogen) were identified as important drivers for the differences between the estimates of the original studies. The range in alternatively calculated estimates usually overlapped between disciplines, showing that proper appreciation of uncertainty can explain apparent differences between the initial estimates from both disciplines. Uncertainty was not estimated in the original QMRA studies and underestimated in the epidemiological studies. We advise to give appropriate attention to uncertainty in QMRA and epidemiological studies, even if only qualitatively, so that scientists and policymakers can interpret reported outcomes more correctly. Ideally, both disciplines are joined by merging their strong respective properties, leading to unified public health measures.     

Mending the Levee: How Supernaturally Anchored Conceptions of the Person Impact on Trauma Perception and Healing among Children (Cases from Madagascar and Nepal)

When dealing with children and youth who experience distressing events, psychosocial diagnostics and healing programmes principally resort to biomedical models. Children are often viewed as individualised ‘victims’ suffering from trauma and ‘in need’ of outside help. Highlighting case studies from Madagascar and Nepal, this article argues that the biomedical approach to trauma would be strengthened by a concomitant analysis of social networks, including the perceived relations with the supernatural. The various tandems of family and kin relationships, the living and the dead, constitute not only a social ‘levee’ breached by distressing events, but also the locus around which social relations are rebuilt.     

A Multivariate Intervention Model for the Dutch Mint Circulation: Estimation and Monte Carlo Simulation

For each of the five Dutch coinage denominations, a transfer-function model is estimated. The output variables are monthly observations of coins in circulation. Two input variables represent transaction flows; all other inputs are step functions, representing the occurrence of interventions. Using the method of cross-correlating the residuals of the individual equations, a multivariate transfer-function model is constructed and estimated. Next Monte Carlo simulation is applied to derive expectations and variances of the yearly addition to the stock of coins until 1996. Our results enlighten on some aspects of a problem situation faced by the Dutch State Mint.     

Inferring an Augmented Bayesian Network to Confront a Complex Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Model with Durability Studies: Application to Bacillus Cereus on a Courgette Purée Production Chain

The Monte Carlo (MC) simulation approach is traditionally used in food safety risk assessment to study quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) models. When experimental data are available, performing Bayesian inference is a good alternative approach that allows backward calculation in a stochastic QMRA model to update the experts’ knowledge about the microbial dynamics of a given food‐borne pathogen. In this article, we propose a complex example where Bayesian inference is applied to a high‐dimensional second‐order QMRA model. The case study is a farm‐to‐fork QMRA model considering genetic diversity of Bacillus cereus in a cooked, pasteurized, and chilled courgette purée. Experimental data are Bacillus cereus concentrations measured in packages of courgette purées stored at different time‐temperature profiles after pasteurization. To perform a Bayesian inference, we first built an augmented Bayesian network by linking a second‐order QMRA model to the available contamination data. We then ran a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to update all the unknown concentrations and unknown quantities of the augmented model. About 25% of the prior beliefs are strongly updated, leading to a reduction in uncertainty. Some updates interestingly question the QMRA model.     

Persistence and desistance in heavy cannabis use: the role of identity,agency, and life events

Many cannabis users ‘mature out’ of their drug use, and factors of cannabis use cessation have been identified. However, very little in-depth knowledge is available about the mechanisms underlying this phenomenon. Criminological studies have gained interesting insights in desistance from crime, yet these perspectives are rarely used in drug research. This qualitative, three-year longitudinal study explored the processes involved in desistance from frequent cannabis use for young adults. Using a narrative approach, desisters (frequent users who successfully quit their cannabis use) and persisters (frequent users with a persistent desire and unsuccessful attempts to quit) were compared. In the course of the study, desisters mainly exhibited increasing agency and goal setting, established strategies to achieve these goals, and could envision another self. Desistance was generally induced by life events that became turning points. Persisters experienced largely similar events, but lacked goals and strategies and held external factors responsible for their life course and failed quit attempts. Identity change is at the core of desistance from frequent cannabis use, and the meaning-giving to life events and experiences is essential. Agency is a necessary ingredient for desistance, develops over time and through action, and leads to a new drug-free identity with desistance in turn increasing agency.     

What About the Grandparents? Children's Postdivorce Residence Arrangements and Contact With Grandparents

Despite the importance of grandparents in their grandchildren's lives, little is known about grandparent–grandchild contact after parental divorce. In this study, the authors investigated differences in grandparent–grandchild contact across 3 postdivorce residence arrangements (mother residence, father residence, and shared residence) using recent survey data from the Netherlands (N = 3,842). The results indicated that contact with maternal grandparents after divorce was highest in mother‐residence arrangements, followed by shared residence and then father residence. Contact with paternal grandparents was highest for children in father‐residence and shared‐residence arrangements, followed by mother residence. Parental conflict had little influence on children's contact with maternal grandparents, but it decreased contact with paternal grandparents. Moreover, the results partly support the assumption that conflict moderates the relationship between residence arrangements and grandparental contact, with differences between residence arrangements being more pronounced in the case of high‐conflict divorced families than in low‐conflict ones.     

The enemies within: targeting Han Chinese and Hui minorities in Xinjiang

How can we account for the targeted pattern of violence in Xinjiang, in which Uyghur secessionist groups attack some second-order minorities such as the Han Chinese and the Hui, but not the sizeable populations of Kazak, Kyrgyz, and Mongol minorities? Based on a variety of primary and secondary sources, I argue that members of the Han minority, being the national majority in China but a ‘nested minority’ in Xinjiang, are doomed to become a primary target of secessionist attacks as they represent, in and of themselves, the state from which Uyghur nationalists are trying to secede. Han Chinese’s – and to a lesser extent the Hui’s – economic and political dominance over the Uyghurs, along with their lack of historical ties to Xinjiang, also motivates their targeting while reinforcing the bond between other indigenous and comparatively disadvantaged minorities.     

To see ourselves as others see us: identity and attitudes towards immigration amongst civic nationalists

ABSTRACT

This article examines how different conceptions of national identity can be linked to attitudes towards cultural pluralism. The tensions between more culturally pluralistic societies and sustained support for nationalism represent an important political issue in modern western European politics. Such tensions are of particular relevance for stateless nationalist and regionalist parties (SNRPs) for whom national/regional identity is a major political driver. This article empirically tests the relationship between different conceptions of national identity and attitudes towards cultural pluralism in two SNRPs—the Scottish National Party and the Frisian National Party. The article draws upon evidence from two unique full party membership studies and is supported with evidence from documentary analysis. A key finding is that the manner in which members conceptualise national identity has significant implications for their attitudes towards cultural pluralism, which has the potential of becoming a source of tension within SNRPs. A key implication of the article is that there is evidence that attitudes of general members and officially stated party positions and narratives diverge on issues relating to cultural pluralism and national identity. These tensions could potentially be harmful for the party's overall civic image.