Improved estimation of a finite population mean based on paired observations

This paper considers an improvement of the customary estimator of a finite population mean under a single stage sampling design when paired data, are available on each unit of the sample. Guided by the well known problem of “corninon mean”, a mixture i.e. a weighted combination of the mean of the principal characteristic and that of the auxiliary (possibly transformed) characteristic is proposed. It is shown that, under some conditions, improveinent (with respect to MSE) over the traditional estimator is possible for a broad range of the values of the mixing constant. An estimator of the MSE of the proposed estimator is also provided.     

Alternative covariance estimates in a replicated measurement error model with correlated,heteroscedastic errors

The article concerns covariance estimates in a replicated measurement error model with correlated, heteroscedastic errors. Freedman has conjectured that using more of the data will improve estimates of covariance matrices and result in a more efficient estimate of the coefficient of the regression model. The paper confirms the conjecture asymptotically for the case that all random variables are normally distributed, but the gain is not substantial.     

Automating and evaluating reversible jump MCMC proposal distributions

The reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler (Green in Biometrika 82:711–732, 1995) has become an invaluable device for Bayesian practitioners. However, the primary difficulty with the sampler lies with the efficient construction of transitions between competing models of possibly differing dimensionality and interpretation. We propose the use of a marginal density estimator to construct between-model proposal distributions. This provides both a step towards black-box simulation for reversible jump samplers, and a tool to examine the utility of common between-model mapping strategies. We compare the performance of our approach to well established alternatives in both time series and mixture model examples.     

Asymptotic distributions for the intervals estimators of the extremal index and the cluster-size probabilities

Under appropriate long range dependence conditions, the point process of exceedances of a stationary sequence weakly converges to a homogeneous compound Poisson point process. This limiting point process can be characterized by the extremal index and the cluster-size probabilities. In this paper we address the problem of estimating these quantities and we consider the intervals estimators introduced in Ferro and Segers [2003. Inference for clusters of extreme values. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 545–556] and in Ferro [2004. Statistical methods for clusters of extreme values. Ph.D. Thesis, Lancaster University]. We establish asymptotic weak convergence to Gaussian random variables and we give their asymptotic variance.     

Diagnostic checks for discrete data regression models using posterior predictive simulations

Model checking with discrete data regressions can be difficult because the usual methods such as residual plots have complicated reference distributions that depend on the parameters in the model. Posterior predictive checks have been proposed as a Bayesian way to average the results of goodness-of-fit tests in the presence of uncertainty in estimation of the parameters. We try this approach using a variety of discrepancy variables for generalized linear models fitted to a historical data set on behavioural learning. We then discuss the general applicability of our findings in the context of a recent applied example on which we have worked. We find that the following discrepancy variables work well, in the sense of being easy to interpret and sensitive to important model failures: structured displays of the entire data set, general discrepancy variables based on plots of binned or smoothed residuals versus predictors and specific discrepancy variables created on the basis of the particular concerns arising in an application. Plots of binned residuals are especially easy to use because their predictive distributions under the model are sufficiently simple that model checks can often be made implicitly. The following discrepancy variables did not work well: scatterplots of latent residuals defined from an underlying continuous model and quantile–quantile plots of these residuals.     

Two ways of modelling overdispersion in non-normal data

For non-normal data assumed to have distributions, such as the Poisson distribution, which have an a priori dispersion parameter, there are two ways of modelling overdispersion: by a quasi-likelihood approach or with a random-effect model. The two approaches yield different variance functions for the response, which may be distinguishable if adequate data are available. The epilepsy data of Thall and Vail and the fabric data of Bissell are used to exemplify the ideas.     

Robustness of testing the equality of two slopes in simple linear structural relationships

The usual test of the equality of two slopes in a simple structural relation-ship is the test formed from the normal approximation using the Fisher information matrix, assuming two explanatory variables are independent. This paper examines the robustness if the explanatory variables are, in fact, dependent. A more efficient estimator is derived for a matched pair situation.     

论财务报告的发展趋势

文章分析了财务报告环境发生的重大变化,并从理论与实践的角度论述了财务报告内容、模式和信息披露等几个方面的基本发展趋势.     

论中西哲学的会通

自从提出中国哲学中不存在西方ontology以后,有一种新的观点,试图为不同于西方ontology的所谓中国哲学本体论作辩护,并欲以此会通中西哲学,这实际上涉及到什么是哲学的根本问题。从逻辑上说,在中国哲学中寻找本体论,仍未脱出西方哲学观念的框架,而会通中西哲学的历史任务则必定要求传统哲学观念的更新。根据唯物史观可以初步探讨出新哲学观念的特征。