首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
文章检索
  按 检索   检索词:      
  示例: 沙坡头地区,人工植被区,变化  检索词用空格隔开表示必须包含全部检索词,用“,”隔开表示只需满足任一检索词即可!
出版年份:   被引次数:   他引次数: 提示:输入*表示无穷大
  收费全文   1865篇
  免费   20篇
管理学   180篇
民族学   20篇
人口学   249篇
丛书文集   1篇
理论方法论   131篇
综合类   29篇
社会学   843篇
统计学   432篇
  2024年   23篇
  2023年   36篇
  2022年   24篇
  2021年   41篇
  2020年   94篇
  2019年   117篇
  2018年   145篇
  2017年   152篇
  2016年   141篇
  2015年   71篇
  2014年   120篇
  2013年   342篇
  2012年   140篇
  2011年   53篇
  2010年   47篇
  2009年   38篇
  2008年   45篇
  2007年   36篇
  2006年   26篇
  2005年   20篇
  2004年   21篇
  2003年   20篇
  2002年   14篇
  2001年   15篇
  2000年   11篇
  1999年   8篇
  1998年   12篇
  1997年   7篇
  1996年   6篇
  1995年   9篇
  1994年   1篇
  1993年   1篇
  1992年   6篇
  1991年   5篇
  1990年   5篇
  1989年   4篇
  1988年   1篇
  1987年   2篇
  1986年   4篇
  1985年   4篇
  1984年   4篇
  1982年   2篇
  1981年   3篇
  1980年   1篇
  1978年   1篇
  1975年   2篇
  1972年   1篇
  1971年   1篇
  1968年   2篇
  1967年   1篇
排序方式: 共有1885条查询结果,搜索用时 0 毫秒
21.
    
Two-stage designs offer substantial advantages for early phase II studies. The interim analysis following the first stage allows the study to be stopped for futility, or more positively, it might lead to early progression to the trials needed for late phase II and phase III. If the study is to continue to its second stage, then there is an opportunity for a revision of the total sample size. Two-stage designs have been implemented widely in oncology studies in which there is a single treatment arm and patient responses are binary. In this paper the case of two-arm comparative studies in which responses are quantitative is considered. This setting is common in therapeutic areas other than oncology. It will be assumed that observations are normally distributed, but that there is some doubt concerning their standard deviation, motivating the need for sample size review. The work reported has been motivated by a study in diabetic neuropathic pain, and the development of the design for that trial is described in detail.  相似文献   
22.
    
We study a repeated game with asymmetric information about a dynamic state of nature. In the course of the game, the better‐informed player can communicate some or all of his information to the other. Our model covers costly and/or bounded communication. We characterize the set of equilibrium payoffs and contrast these with the communication equilibrium payoffs, which by definition entail no communication costs.  相似文献   
23.
□ A doubly nonstationary cylinder-based model is built to describe the dispersal of a population from a point source. In this model, each cylinder represents a fraction of the population, i.e., a group. Two contexts are considered: The dispersal can occur in a uniform habitat or in a fragmented habitat described by a conditional Boolean model. After the construction of the models, we investigate their properties: the first and second order moments, the probability that the population vanishes, and the distribution of the spatial extent of the population.  相似文献   
24.
Compositional tables represent a continuous counterpart to well-known contingency tables. Their cells contain quantitatively expressed relative contributions of a whole, carrying exclusively relative information and are popularly represented in proportions or percentages. The resulting factors, corresponding to rows and columns of the table, can be inspected similarly as with contingency tables, e.g. for their mutual independent behaviour. The nature of compositional tables requires a specific geometrical treatment, represented by the Aitchison geometry on the simplex. The properties of the Aitchison geometry allow a decomposition of the original table into its independent and interactive parts. Moreover, the specific case of 2×2 compositional tables allows the construction of easily interpretable orthonormal coordinates (resulting from the isometric logratio transformation) for the original table and its decompositions. Consequently, for a sample of compositional tables both explorative statistical analysis like graphical inspection of the independent and interactive parts or any statistical inference (odds-ratio-like testing of independence) can be performed. Theoretical advancements of the presented approach are demonstrated using two economic applications.  相似文献   
25.
  总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
This paper evaluates 29 methods for obtaining a two-sided confidence interval for a binomial proportion (16 of which are new proposals) and comes to the conclusion that: Wilson's classic method is only optimal for a confidence of 99%, although generally it can be applied when n≥50; for a confidence of 95% or 90%, the optimal method is the one based on the arcsine transformation (when this is applied to the data incremented by 0.5), which behaves in a very similar manner to Jeffreys’ Bayesian method. A simpler option, though not so good as those just mentioned, is the classic-adjusted Wald method of Agresti and Coull.  相似文献   
26.
27.
    
Eliciting expert knowledge about several uncertain quantities is a complex task when those quantities exhibit associations. A well-known example of such a problem is eliciting knowledge about a set of uncertain proportions which must sum to 1. The usual approach is to assume that the expert's knowledge can be adequately represented by a Dirichlet distribution, since this is by far the simplest multivariate distribution that is appropriate for such a set of proportions. It is also the most convenient, particularly when the expert's prior knowledge is to be combined with a multinomial sample since then the Dirichlet is the conjugate prior family. Several methods have been described in the literature for eliciting beliefs in the form of a Dirichlet distribution, which typically involve eliciting from the expert enough judgements to identify uniquely the Dirichlet hyperparameters. We describe here a new method which employs the device of over-fitting, i.e. eliciting more than the minimal number of judgements, in order to (a) produce a more carefully considered Dirichlet distribution and (b) ensure that the Dirichlet distribution is indeed a reasonable fit to the expert's knowledge. The method has been implemented in a software extension of the Sheffield elicitation framework (SHELF) to facilitate the multivariate elicitation process.  相似文献   
28.
    
First hitting times arise naturally in survival analysis where the underlying stochastic counting process represents the strength of the health of an individual. The patient experiences a clinical endpoint when this process reaches a critical point for the first time. We propose a very flexible and unified first hitting time density function in a stochastic carcinogenesis counting process, and its mathematical properties are investigated. The Poisson and negative binomial first hitting time models are addressed and two examples with real data are presented.  相似文献   
29.
    
In this paper, we describe a series of laboratory experiments that implement specific examples of a general network structure. Specifically, actions are either strategic substitutes or strategic complements, and participants have either complete or incomplete information about the structure of a random network. Since economic environments typically have a considerable degree of complementarity or substitutability, this framework applies to a wide variety of settings. We examine behavior and equilibrium selection. The degree of equilibrium play is striking, in particular with incomplete information. Behavior closely resembles the theoretical equilibrium whenever this is unique; when there are multiple equilibria, general features of networks, such as connectivity, clustering, and the degree of the players, help to predict informed behavior in the lab. People appear to be strongly attracted to maximizing aggregate payoffs (social efficiency), but there are forces that moderate this attraction: (1) people seem content with (in the aggregate) capturing only the lion's share of the efficient profits in exchange for reduced exposure to loss, and (2) uncertainty about the network structure makes it considerably more difficult to coordinate on a demanding, but efficient, equilibrium that is typically implemented with complete information.  相似文献   
30.
    
We developed a stochastic model for quantitative risk assessment for the Schistosoma mansoni (SM) parasite, which causes an endemic disease of public concern. The model provides answers in a useful format for public health decisions, uses data and expert opinion, and can be applied to any landscape where the snail Biomphalaria glabrata is the main intermediate host (South and Central America, the Caribbean, and Africa). It incorporates several realistic and case‐specific features: stage‐structured parasite populations, periodic praziquantel (PZQ) drug treatment for humans, density dependence, extreme events (prolonged rainfall), site‐specific sanitation quality, environmental stochasticity, monthly rainfall variation, uncertainty in parameters, and spatial dynamics. We parameterize the model through a real‐world application in the district of Porto de Galinhas (PG), one of the main touristic destinations in Brazil, where previous studies identified four parasite populations within the metapopulation. The results provide a good approximation of the dynamics of the system and are in agreement with our field observations, i.e., the lack of basic infrastructure (sanitation level and health programs) makes PG a suitable habitat for the persistence and growth of a parasite metapopulation. We quantify the risk of SM metapopulation explosion and quasi‐extinction and the time to metapopulation explosion and quasi‐extinction. We evaluate the sensitivity of the results under varying scenarios of future periodic PZQ treatment (based on the Brazilian Ministry of Health's plan) and sanitation quality. We conclude that the plan might be useful to slow SM metapopulation growth but not to control it. Additional investments in better sanitation are necessary.  相似文献   
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号