A wavelet-based approach to the analysis and modelling of financial time series exhibiting strong long-range dependence: the case of Southeast Europe

This paper demonstrates the utilization of wavelet-based tools for the analysis and prediction of financial time series exhibiting strong long-range dependence (LRD). Commonly emerging markets' stock returns are characterized by LRD. Therefore, we track the LRD evolvement for the return series of six Southeast European stock indices through the application of a wavelet-based semi-parametric method. We further engage the á trous wavelet transform in order to extract deeper knowledge on the returns term structure and utilize it for prediction purposes. In particular, a multiscale autoregressive (MAR) model is fitted and its out-of-sample forecast performance is benchmarked to that of ARMA. Additionally, a data-driven MAR feature selection procedure is outlined. We find that the wavelet-based method captures adequately LRD dynamics both in calm as well as in turmoil periods detecting the presence of transitional changes. At the same time, the MAR model handles with the complicated autocorrelation structure implied by the LRD in a parsimonious way achieving better performance.     

Evaluating a multiple-family group access intervention for refugees with PTSD

The purpose of this study was to analyze the effects of a multiple-family group in increasing access to mental health services for refugees with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). This study investigated a nine-session multiple-family group called Coffee and Families Education and Support with refugee families from Bosnia-Herzegovina in Chicago. Adults with PTSD (n = 197) and their families were randomly assigned to receive either the intervention or a control condition. The results indicated that a multiple-family group was effective in increasing access to mental health services and that depression and family comfort with discussing trauma mediated the intervention effect. Further well-designed studies of family interventions are needed for developing evidence-based interventions for refugee families.     

Reviews

Book reviewed in this article: Relationship Counselling For Children, Young People and Families Geldard, K. Geldard, D. MENDS Counsellor Manual: A Structured Approach to Assisting Men in Relationship Crisis: Pershouse, Owen C.     

Institutional rules, labour demand and retirement through disability programme participation

We use matched employer–employee data from Finland to model transitions out of work into sick leave and disability retirement. To identify the role of institutional factors, we exploit reforms that changed medical requirements for disability pension eligibility and experience-rated employer contributions. We find that transitions to sick leave and disability pension benefits are relatively rare in growing establishments, but rather common in establishments with a high degree of excess worker turnover. We also show that transitions to disability retirement depend on the stringency of medical screening and the degree of experience rating applied to the employer.     

Gambling-Related Harms Among Adolescents: A Population-Based Study

Internationally, and also in Europe, adolescent gambling is increasingly recognized as an important public health issue. Most research on adolescent gambling, however, is prevalence-focused and population-based studies are scarce. Few studies have examined gambling-related harms among adolescents. In a national sample, we examined self-experienced harms related to gambling and the relationship between reported harms and gambling behavior among Finnish adolescents. A national survey of 12–18-year-olds was conducted in Finland in 2011 (N = 4,566). Main measures were frequency of gambling and gambling-related harms reported during the past 6 months. The relationship between reported harms and gambling behavior was assessed using logistic regression analysis. Overall, 44% had gambled during the past 6 months. Of the sample, 12% were frequent gamblers (at least weekly) and 32% were occasional gamblers (monthly or less often). Compared to occasional gamblers, frequent gamblers were more likely to experience harms. The most commonly reported harms among frequent gamblers were “felt guilty or shameful due to gambling” (17%) followed by “problems with relationships” (13%) and “disruptions of daily rhythm” (10%). In age and gender-adjusted analysis, daily gamblers were significantly more likely to report all different types of harms when compared to other groups. These findings suggest that when planning and targeting youth gambling prevention and harm reduction strategies the nature and extent to which gambling may contribute to the different types of harms are important to consider.