An Integrated Risk Assessment Model of Township‐Scaled Land Subsidence Based on an Evidential Reasoning Algorithm and Fuzzy Set Theory

Land subsidence risk assessment (LSRA) is a multi‐attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem and is often characterized by both quantitative and qualitative attributes with various types of uncertainty. Therefore, the problem needs to be modeled and analyzed using methods that can handle uncertainty. In this article, we propose an integrated assessment model based on the evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm and fuzzy set theory. The assessment model is structured as a hierarchical framework that regards land subsidence risk as a composite of two key factors: hazard and vulnerability. These factors can be described by a set of basic indicators defined by assessment grades with attributes for transforming both numerical data and subjective judgments into a belief structure. The factor‐level attributes of hazard and vulnerability are combined using the ER algorithm, which is based on the information from a belief structure calculated by the Dempster‐Shafer (D‐S) theory, and a distributed fuzzy belief structure calculated by fuzzy set theory. The results from the combined algorithms yield distributed assessment grade matrices. The application of the model to the Xixi‐Chengnan area, China, illustrates its usefulness and validity for LSRA. The model utilizes a combination of all types of evidence, including all assessment information—quantitative or qualitative, complete or incomplete, and precise or imprecise—to provide assessment grades that define risk assessment on the basis of hazard and vulnerability. The results will enable risk managers to apply different risk prevention measures and mitigation planning based on the calculated risk states.     

Student and faculty perceptions about mandatory influenza vaccinations on a health sciences campus

Objective: To examine the perceptions among faculty and health professional students regarding mandatory vaccination policies on a health sciences campus. Participants: A total of 296 faculty and 244 students completed surveys during Fall 2015. Methods: The online survey administered to individuals who received the influenza vaccine during the fall 2015 influenza vaccination clinic season included five items evaluating perceptions of employer mandatory vaccination requirements. Results: Chi-square analysis indicated that although faculty and students agree mandatory vaccinations in a health care environment are appropriate, faculty are more likely than students to get vaccinated in the absence of a mandate. Additionally, a small fraction of faculty would consider employment elsewhere when facing this mandate. Conclusions: Overall, faculty and students had favorable perceptions about mandatory influenza vaccine policies. Since students were less likely to be vaccinated in the absence of a mandate, education of students should be improved to support the importance of vaccinations in a health care environment.     

Sequential decision making without independence: a new conceptual approach

This paper presents a critical reflection on dynamic consistency as commonly used in economics and decision theory, and on the difficulty to test it experimentally. It distinguishes between the uses of the term dynamic consistency in order to characterize two different properties: the first accounts for the neutrality of individual preferences towards the timing of resolution of uncertainty whereas the second guarantees that a strategy chosen at the beginning of a sequential decision problem is immune to any reevaluation and will effectively be implemented from then on in the decision problem. Although these two properties are equivalent under expected utility (EU), this is not the case under non-EU. Building on the possible characteristics of individual dynamic preferences under risk, this paper proposes a conceptual categorization, that is experimentally testable, of possible sequential decision making behaviors of non-EU maximizers.     

Transformational Leadership, Organizational Culture, Organizational Effectiveness, and Programme Outcomes in Non-Governmental Organizations

This study examines whether transformational leadership influences organizational culture that furthers NGOs?? effectiveness. It also examines whether transformational leadership at the top directly influences NGOs?? effectiveness. Further, it tests whether NGO effectiveness improves the programme outcomes in terms of health, income, education, and happiness of villagers. Data were collected from 312 NGOs in Jharkhand state (India). Transformational leadership, organizational culture, and NGO effectiveness were assessed from NGO personnel using standard instruments, and programme outcomes on health, income, education, and happiness were evaluated from villagers using wooden cubes. Findings reveal that transformational leadership builds organizational culture that furthers NGO effectiveness. Transformational leadership does not influence directly NGO effectiveness but it enhances NGO effectiveness promoting organizational culture. Furthermore, NGO effectiveness improves the outcomes of programmes undertaken by NGOs in terms of better health, income, education, and happiness of beneficiaries.     

Incorporating Time‐Dose‐Response into Legionella Outbreak Models

A novel method was used to incorporate in vivo host–pathogen dynamics into a new robust outbreak model for legionellosis. Dose‐response and time‐dose‐response (TDR) models were generated for Legionella longbeachae exposure to mice via the intratracheal route using a maximum likelihood estimation approach. The best‐fit TDR model was then incorporated into two L. pneumophila outbreak models: an outbreak that occurred at a spa in Japan, and one that occurred in a Melbourne aquarium. The best‐fit TDR from the murine dosing study was the beta‐Poisson with exponential‐reciprocal dependency model, which had a minimized deviance of 32.9. This model was tested against other incubation distributions in the Japan outbreak, and performed consistently well, with reported deviances ranging from 32 to 35. In the case of the Melbourne outbreak, the exponential model with exponential dependency was tested against non‐time‐dependent distributions to explore the performance of the time‐dependent model with the lowest number of parameters. This model reported low minimized deviances around 8 for the Weibull, gamma, and lognormal exposure distribution cases. This work shows that the incorporation of a time factor into outbreak distributions provides models with acceptable fits that can provide insight into the in vivo dynamics of the host‐pathogen system.     

Differential customer racial attitudes toward scandal and patriotism: The Mitchell Report,the Olympics,race, and baseball memorabilia

This paper investigates differential customer racial reaction to negative and positive publicity related to professional athletes. In terms of negative publicity, it analyzes the effect of mention in the Mitchell Report on the price of baseball cards. In regards to positive publicity, it considers the impact of having been identified as a member of the United States Olympic or national team. After controlling for player productivity with performance statistics, the effects of being mentioned in the Mitchell Report are isolated within regression analysis to draw conclusions concerning customer racial attitudes toward the steroids scandal. Similar analysis is conducted to see the impact of being seen as a baseball representative of the United States. Regression results are consistent with the conclusion that negative publicity devalues the cards of nonWhite players but not of White players. Positive publicity, however, increases the value of a player's card regardless of ethnicity.     

Private equity regulation: a comparative analysis

This article examines the existing contractual arrangements and industry standards in private equity. It shows that investors are, in principle, capable of structuring their particular investments according to their own preferences, there are a range of governance problems and risks that could be potentially hazardous for some classes of investors. We examine the circumstances where existing industry codes and legal tools can be used to address the problems that arise in relation to private equity and buyout activity.     

The Box–Cox Transformation and Non‐Iterative Estimation Methods for Ordinal Log‐Linear Models

Recently Beh and Farver investigated and evaluated three non‐iterative procedures for estimating the linear‐by‐linear parameter of an ordinal log‐linear model. The study demonstrated that these non‐iterative techniques provide estimates that are, for most types of contingency tables, statistically indistinguishable from estimates from Newton's unidimensional algorithm. Here we show how two of these techniques are related using the Box–Cox transformation. We also show that by using this transformation, accurate non‐iterative estimates are achievable even when a contingency table contains sampling zeros.     

Spurred to Action or Retreat? The Effects of Reception Contexts on Naturalization Decisions in Los Angeles1

Undocumented immigration has been linked to a wave of anti‐immigrant legislation during the early 1990s. California led the way by passing Proposition 187, which many suspect led legal immigrants to naturalize. No research has confirmed this suspicion. I argue that the years before, during, and after the legislation’s passage and the strength of the labor market represent two contexts of reception in which immigrants reside, which determine naturalization decisions. Event history models show that California’s naturalization rates dramatically increased after the legislation’s passage, a pattern that is most pronounced among Latinos, while rates declined during difficult times, a pattern more pronounced among Asians. Thus, Latinos’ naturalization rates are affected more by the state policy climate, while Asians rates are affected more by long‐term economic health.