Behavioral economics and the value of a statistical life

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - There are many possible connections between the value of statistical life (VSL) and behavioral economics. A list of topics includes endowment effects, risk...     

A population sample registry for public health survey investigations: methods,lessons, and successes

Public health relies on sample surveys to monitor the health of populations and investigate factors that contribute to population health and illness. Such investigations require surveying individuals who are selected in ways that support statistical inference to the population. Faced with rising costs and declining participation, survey researchers are exploring economical ways to recruit samples that validly represent larger populations. The current report describes an innovative resource, the Colorado Adult Population Sample–Survey Research Registry, which maintains survey access to respondents from a probability-based state health survey. We describe recruitment and retention strategies, explore representativeness, report several studies that used the registry, and discuss future directions.     

Transition probabilities and ARL performance of Six Sigma zone control charts

In this article, Six Sigma zone control charts (SSZCCs) are proposed for world class organizations. The transition probabilities are obtained using the Markov chain approach. The Average Run Length (ARL) values are then presented. The ARL performance of the proposed SSZCCs and the standard Six Sigma control chart (SSCC) without zones or run rules is studied. The ARL performance of these charts is then compared with those of the other standard zone control charts (ZCCs), the modified ZCC and the traditional Shewhart control chart (SCC) with common run rules. As expected, it is shown that the proposed SSZCC outperforms the standard SSCC without zones or run rules for process shifts of any magnitude. When compared to the other standard ZCCs and the Shewhart chart with common run rules, it is observed that the proposed SSZCCs have much higher false alarm rates for smaller shifts and hence they prevent unwanted process disturbances. The application of the proposed SSZCC is illustrated using a real time example.     

Strong convergence rates of probabilistic integrators for ordinary differential equations

Probabilistic integration of a continuous dynamical system is a way of systematically introducing discretisation error, at scales no larger than errors introduced by standard numerical discretisation, in order to enable thorough exploration of possible responses of the system to inputs. It is thus a potentially useful approach in a number of applications such as forward uncertainty quantification, inverse problems, and data assimilation. We extend the convergence analysis of probabilistic integrators for deterministic ordinary differential equations, as proposed by Conrad et al. (Stat Comput 27(4):1065–1082, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-016-9671-0), to establish mean-square convergence in the uniform norm on discrete- or continuous-time solutions under relaxed regularity assumptions on the driving vector fields and their induced flows. Specifically, we show that randomised high-order integrators for globally Lipschitz flows and randomised Euler integrators for dissipative vector fields with polynomially bounded local Lipschitz constants all have the same mean-square convergence rate as their deterministic counterparts, provided that the variance of the integration noise is not of higher order than the corresponding deterministic integrator. These and similar results are proven for probabilistic integrators where the random perturbations may be state-dependent, non-Gaussian, or non-centred random variables.

     

The racialized patterns of police violence: The critical importance of research as praxis

The tragic killing of George Floyd at the hands of the police resulted in hundreds of thousands of protestors marching in the streets demanding change. The call for change criticized the killing of Blacks by law enforcement and challenged White supremacy as an institution of social control and racial violence. A key component of the marches and protests was a message to the residents of the United States: “Black Lives Matter.” As society grapples with a reckoning, researchers studying police violence for the past 6 decades have been empirically and theoretically debating the reasons why use of force by law enforcement continues to have a higher proportion of Black and Brown victims compared to Whites. Although the research on fatal police killings was studied by only a small number of individuals prior to 2014, after the killing of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri the research in different areas of the country increased rapidly as did the forms of analysis and research disciplines making their own contributions. The Washington Post and Guardian news agencies established that deaths at the hands of the police were occurring for at least 900 to 1100 individual deaths per year for which firearms resulted in the greatest cause of death. As US government agencies failed to produce a national data source on police involved killings, the media took a leading role in providing greater national understanding. The authors examine what role academic researchers contribute to the discussion for solutions, particularly those from marginalized backgrounds. As protestors march, lawyers sue and defend, and politicians create new forms of legislation, researchers need to play a more important role initiating critical studies, making sense of the data, and providing a theoretical framework for which police violence can be understood. This article will provide an overview of the literature on racialized police violence, point out key patterns involving racial and ethnic disparities, and emphasize how researchers can play a more important role in advocating for change.     

Self-exciting threshold models for time series of counts with a finite range

In this article, an integer-valued self-exciting threshold model with a finite range based on the binomial INARCH(1) model is proposed. Important stochastic properties are derived, and approaches for parameter estimation are discussed. A real-data example about the regional spread of public drunkenness in Pittsburgh demonstrates the applicability of the new model in comparison to existing models. Feasible modifications of the model are presented, which are designed to handle special features such as zero-inflation.     

Attention and Executive Functions as Mediators of Attachment and Behavior Problems

The purpose of this study was to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the relation between early parent‐child interactions and subsequent behavior problems and how certain cognitive processes mediate this relation. Specifically, this study investigated whether attention, inhibition, and planning skills mediate the relation between attachment security and behavior problems. Data were collected as part of the National Institute of Child Health and Development‐Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development when children (N = 1004) were between 36 months and the third grade. Results from structural equation models indicated that sustained attention mediated the relation between disorganized attachment and social problems. Planning mediated the relation between disorganized attachment and subsequent thought problems, attention problems, and delinquent behavior. Avoidant, ambivalent, and disorganized attachment directly predicted several behavior problems. Implications for theory and future research are discussed.     

Control Chart for Monitoring Autocorrelated Process with Multiple Exogenous Inputs

We propose to use AR-Sieve Bootstrap in the construction of a control chart of an autocorrelated process influenced by multiple exogenous inputs. The control charts are compared with Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) control chart through a simulation study. AR-Sieve bootstrap control limits are narrower than EWMA control limits. While the proposed method yields a higher rate of false alarms, it is quick in detecting even minimal structural changes.     

The Mediating Role of Emotion Dysregulation in the Relation Between Adult Attachment Insecurity and Depression Among Young Gay and Bisexual Men

Objectives: Attachment insecurity may be more pronounced among young gay and bisexual men (YGBM). Further, attachment insecurity is associated with dysregulated patterns of emotion regulation, which can lead to depression. However, pathways linking attachment insecurity to depression are underexplored among YGBM. Methods: This study used pilot data from N?=?67 YGBM to examine if emotion dysregulation mediated the association between attachment insecurity and depression. Results: Results supported the study hypotheses. Attachment insecurity was associated with emotion dysregulation, which was associated with depression. Conclusion: Findings provide preliminary evidence that emotion regulation training may be a useful approach for addressing depression among YGBM.