Mixed estimation of old-age mortality

"Section 2 will first extend the method of mixed estimation to maximum likelihood estimation in general. Then, we will review generalized linear models with logistic and Poisson regressions as examples. In Section 3 we discuss different approaches for formulating the auxiliary information in practice. Section 4 first reviews the method of Coale and Kisker, provides empirical estimates for it, and then proceeds with the mixed estimation variant. In Section 5 we apply the methods to the estimation of mortality at ages 80+ in Finland in 1980-1993. We will first consider the evidence for mortality crossover between males and females....Then we will estimate life expectancies at age 100." (EXCERPT)     

Dynamically Consistent Preferences with Quadratic Beliefs

This article characterizes a family of preference relations over uncertain prospects that (a) are dynamically consistent in the Machina sense and, moreover, for which the updated preferences are also members of this family and (b) can simultaneously accommodate Ellsberg- and Allais-type paradoxes.Replacing the "mixture independence" axiom by "mixture symmetry" proposed by Chew, Epstein, and Segal (1991) for decision making under objective risk, and requiring that for some partition of the state space the agent perceives ambiguity and so prefers a randomization over outcomes across that partition (proper uncertainty aversion), preferences can be represented by a (proper) quadratic functional. This representation may be further refined to allow a separation between the quantification of beliefs and risk preferences that is closed under dynamically consistent updating.     

Second generation decline? Children of immigrants,past and present--a reconsideration

"Is the contemporary second generation on the road to the upward mobility and assimilation that in retrospect characterized the second generation of earlier immigrations? Or are the American economic context and the racial origins of today's immigration likely to result in a much less favorable future for the contemporary second generation? While several recent papers have argued for the latter position, we suspect they are too pessimistic. We briefly review the second generation upward mobility in the past and then turn to the crucial comparisons between past and present."     

Mexico-United States labor migration flows

"International migration from Mexico to the United Sates is viewed very differently depending on from which side of the border this phenomenon is observed and evaluated....[It is] imperative to begin a process of ?demythifying' migration as a necessary and sufficient condition that would allow both countries to come together within the context of bilateral relations and find ways to act jointly to address the impacts of the issue. Such a demythifying effort must begin with scientific research which can help develop a diagnosis of the costs and benefits that labor migration from Mexico to the United States brings to the two countries."     

Book reviews

The Political Sociology of Florian Znaniecki and Contemporary Politics (in Polish), Olgierd Sochacki (Ed.) Wydawnictwo Gdanskie, The Scientific Society of Gdansk, 1996

Why Read. Internal Space and the Social Function of Literature: An Investigation with. Psychoanalysts and Psychology Students, Graziella Pagliano (Ed.) Bonanno Editore, 1994

Voix Littéraires de Femmes

Cuadernos sobre Vico, Nos 5–6, José M. Sevilla et al. 1995–96

Studi in memoria di Ernesto Grassi Proceedings of the International Conference in Memory of Ernesto Grassi (Ischia, 4–6 October 1993), Emilio Hidalgo‐Serna and Massimo Marassi (Eds), Napoli, La Città del Sole, 1996

Naples Istituto Italiano per gli Studi Fiosofici, La Gittà del Sole, Napoli, 1996

Family, Women and Employment in Central‐Eastern Europe, Barbara Lobodzinska (Ed.) Greenwood Press, 1995     

Evaluation design for a community prevention trial. An environmental approach to reduce alcohol-involved trauma

The Community Prevention Trial was 5-year effort to reduce alcohol-involved injuries and death through a comprehensive program of community awareness and policy activities. The three experimental communities were of approximately 100,000 population each (one in Northern California, one in Southern California, and one in South Carolina). Matched comparison communities were used for each experimental community. This article describes the evaluation approach used in a program that sought to change environmental factors not a specific population or target group. This approach demanded unique evaluation approaches for determining overall community aggregate effects, that is, distal outcomes, as well as changes in key mediating variables, that is, process effects. The problem of trending and lagged effects of community prevention programs are discussed.     

Analysis approaches to community evaluation

Analysis approaches to the evaluation of community interventions must be sensitive to a wide variety of analytic contaminants that may bias the statistical assessment of changes in outcome measures. These contaminants include model misspecifications related to failures to control for community-specific time trends, temporal autocorrelated errors in equations, spatial autocorrelated errors among geographic units, and other failures of unit independence otherwise indexed by estimated intraclass correlations. Although an enormous amount of progress has been made toward the solution of many of these analytic problems over the past years, the contemporary evaluator of community interventions is left with a number of unenviable design and analysis choices; choices that inevitably force an assessment of the relative threats of different sources of error to the internal and external validity of the evaluation. This article describes the choices made for the evaluation of the Community Trial Project outcome data.