Demographics: people and markets

The basics of demography are now basic to us business as well. Demographics combine demographic data with socioeconomic and geographic factors to help business and other managers know the market for their goods and services. This pamphlet explains market, product, and site analyses, discusses data sources and resources, and includes case studies involving major corporations. Post-war population trends have had an enormous impact on consumer and labor markets, bringing home to business the importance of taking advantage of demographic shifts. Advances in computerized access to data describing changes and increased consciousness of their economic significance has spurred the application of demographic knowledge by managers and the growth of the demographics information industry. The pamphlet describes the resources and methods of demographics including the creation and use of demographic data products.     

Problems and possibilities of development work among tribals: a participatory evaluation of a voluntary agency in India

Mandal, a church-related non-governmental voluntary agency operating in north-west India's Nasik district since 1966 was evaluated for performance in promoting self-sustaining economic growth and socio- political awareness in its beneficiaries. The research design incorporated 2 questions, the extent to which Mandal had used the integrated approach, and the extent to which it promoted structural change in the village. 2 levels of analysis were used: random samples of 315 individuals (163 beneficiaries and 152 non-beneficiaries) and data from the takatu's office for 20 involved villages and 8 control villages. Quantitative data were sought by examining files and doing closed interviews, and qualitative data were collected by observation and open-ended interviews. The variables used in the analysis were educational level, class category, caste, agricultural investment, family net income, individual consciousness and social participation. It was concluded that on the individual level some positive impact was discernible in terms of family income and agricultural investment. At the village level no quantitative improvement was measurable, but the effect of Mandal was symbolic in that it sets an example for social change. The Mandal has acquired a health, non-partisan secular image for social action.     

The protection of migrant workers and international labour standards

International labor standards take the form of Conventions and Recommendations that embody the agreements reached by a 2/3 majority of the representatives of Governments, Employers, and Workers of International Labour Office (ILO) member states. Originally designed to guard against the danger that 1 country or other would keep down wages and working conditions to gain competitive advantage and thereby undermine advances elsewhere, international labor standards have also been inspired by humanitarian concerns--the visible plight of workers and the physical dangers of industrialization and by the notion of social justice, which embraces wellbeing and dignity, security, and equality as well as a measure of participation in economic and social matters. ILO standards apply to workers generally and therefore also to migrant workers, irrespective of the fact that the general standards are complemented by standards especially for migrant workers. The social security protection of migrant workers has been dealt with in ILO instruments primarily from the angle of equality of treatment but also from that of the maintenance of acquired rights and rights in course of acquisition, including the payment of benefits to entitled persons resident abroad. The ILO Conventions on migrant workers and the Recommendations which supplement them deal with practically all aspects of the work and life of non-nationals such as recruitment matters, information to be made available, contract conditions, medical examination and attention, customs, exemption for personal effects, assistance in settling into their new environment, vocational training, promotion at work, job security and alternative employment, liberty of movement, participation in the cultural life of the state as well as maintenance of their own culture, transfer of earnings and savings, family reunification and visits, appeal against unjustified termination of employment or expulsion, and return assistance. ILO's supervisory mechanism consists basically of a dialogue between the ILO and the Government that is responsible for a law, regulation, or practice alleged to be in contravention of principles it voluntarily accepted. The control machinery is often set in motion by workers' organizations. The UN General Assembly is currently elaborating a new instrument designed to cover both regular and irregular migrant workers and their families.     

Social policy and the birthrate

The arguments for and against policy measures designed to increase birth rates in European countries are reviewed. The author concludes that the deterioration of the environment associated with the growth of population in developed countries outweighs any arguments in favor of policy measures to increase fertility.     

Consequentialist demographic norms and parenting rights

This paper extends the author's recent work on dynamically consistent consequentialist social norms for an unrestricted domain of decision trees with risk to trees in which the population is a variable consequence — i.e., endogenous. Given a form of ethical liberalism and ethical irrelevance of distant ancestors, classical utilitarianism is implied (provided also that a weak continuity condition is met). The repugnant conclusion that having many poor people may be desirable can be avoided by denying that individuals' interests extend to the circumstances of their birth. But it is better avoided by recognizing that potential parents have legitimate interests concerning the sizes of their families.That action is best, which procures the greatest happiness for the greatest numbers. Francis Hutchison (1725).An abiding interest in concepts of optimality for the choice of population has been stimulated by frequent discussions with Partha Dasgupta. This paper was presented at the seminar on Distributive Justice and Inequality at the Wissenschaftskolleg zu Berlin, May 1986. I am grateful to the audience for their helpful comments, especially Maurice Salles and Patrick Suppes, and especially to John Weymark for carefully reading and suggesting distinct improvements to the earlier version.     

From making to being the excuse: An analysis of deception and verbal/nonverbal issues

Excuse-making is defined, and the issues of deception and verbal/nonverbal presentations are discussed in regard to the excuse process. Subsequently, the deception and verbal/nonverbal issues are described in greater detail in the context of whether the excuse occurs temporally after a negative outcome (retrospective), before a negative outcome (anticipatory), or as part of the characterological makeup of the person (incorporated). Going from retrospective to anticipatory to incorporated excuses, it is concluded that the role of nonverbal factors increases. Likewise, in the progression from making to being the excuse, it is argued that self- and other-deception also become more pervasive.     

The Indonesian transmigration program in historical perspective

"The purpose of this paper is to look at what has been achieved by the transmigration program [in Indonesia], to examine the major problems that have arisen and to consider the present constraints which now cast some doubt upon the future of the program." A historical overview of government policies from 1905 to 1988 is provided, and problems of land supply, land use, and lack of funds are discussed. Data are from the 1961 and 1980 Indonesian censuses. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

THE GUNS OF AUTUMN?: AGE DIFFERENCES IN SUPPORT FOR INCOME TRANSFERS TO THE YOUNG AND OLD

Data from the 1973 and 1986 General Social Surveys are usedto test the hypothesis that elderly individuals favor publicspending patterns that support their own interests and not thoseof children. Support for educational spending and welfare bythe elderly is found to be less than within other age groups.Age patterns of support for Social Security spending are mixed.Responses to a series of "vignettes" depicting low-income familieswith young children and elderly women living alone showed thatelderly respondents are slightly more supportive than averageof transfers to low-income families with children and less supportivethan average of transfers to low-income members of their owncohort. Elderly respondents appear more generous once theirmore frugal notions of what it takes to "get along" are takeninto account. Support for transfers to young families is moreclosely related to income than age and is not consistent withthe hypothesis that the elderly support programs that benefitthemselves at the expense of programs that benefit the young.