APPLICATIONS OF SPECTRAL ANALYSIS

The basic concepts and application of spectral analysis are explained. Stationary time series and autocorrelation are first defined. Autocorrelation is related to the familiar concepts of variance and covariance. The use of autocorrelation analysis is explained in estimating the interdependent relationship of a time series over discrete time lags. In order to measure the behavior of the time series using autocorrelation, it would be necessary to examine a very large number of autocorrelation lags. Alternatively, the technique of Fourier analysis can be used to transform the autocorrelation function of the time series into a continuous function, termed a spectrum. The spectrum has a one to one correspondence to the autocorrelation for the time series and has the advantage of representing all possible autocorrelations over the discrete time lags. The spectrum can then be examined as a measure of the behavior of the time series. Spectral analysis indicates the reliability of the analysis of autocorrelated variables when familiar statistical techniques such as sample means and variances are used. The application of spectral analysis to management science problems in three general areas is illustrated: (1) inventory demand, (2) transportation simulation, and (3) stock market price behavior. Spectral analysis was used to detect cycles and trends in the data. Analyses were focused on the spectrum which provides a measure of the relative contribution of cycles in a band of frequencies to the total variance of the data.     

Assessing Child Protection Risk

Correspondence to Lorraine Waterhouse, Lecturer, Edinburgh Centre for Social Welfare Research, 23 Buccleuch Place, Edinburgh EH8 9LN. Summary The article outlines a set of child protection criteria usedby social workers for the evaluation of risk in sexual abusecases. The criteria were distilled from research findings basedon a sample of 51 child sexual abuse cases drawn from ChildProtection Registers in Scotland in 1987/89. Criteria dividebetween two types: primary (child care) criteria which concentrateon assessing circumstances prevailing within the family home;and secondary (disclosure) criteria which serve to either substantiateor refute disclosure. Primary criteria include attitude of non-abusingparent to alleged perpetrator; access between referred childand alleged perpetrator; type of abuse; age of child or youngperson; attitude of alleged perpetrator to allegations; andparental attitude to social work investigation. Secondary criteriainclude belief or disbelief of child; psychological symptomsin child; physical signs of abuse; children's attitudes towardsremaining at home; and criminal or psychiatric history includingalcohol or drug abuse. In practice the criteria tend to be usedlike a set of building blocks: tall towers represent higherrisk; low towers lesser risk. Given the enormous stakes involvedin child protection decisions, front-line practitioners wereunder considerable pressure to ‘play it safe’.     

GOVERNING A GROUNDWATER COMMONS: A STRATEGIC AND LABORATORY ANALYSIS OF WESTERN WATER LAW

We examine strategic behavior in groundwater depletion within the setting of state governance of groundwater resources in the American West. Solving a dynamic common-pool resource model for its optimal solution and its subgame perfect equilibrium provides benchmarks for behavior observed in laboratory experiments. Three forms of legal rules—common-pool depletion with a "rule-of-capture" to establish ownership (absolute ownership doctrine), entry restrictions (prior appropriation doctrine), and stock quotas (correlative rights doctrine—are examined in terms of their impact on individual strategic behavior in laboratory experiments.     

CHANGEABLE WEATHER IN A COOLING CLIMATE ATOP THE LIBERAL PLATEAU: CONVERSION AND REPLACEMENT IN FORTY-TWO GENERAL SOCIAL SURVEY ITEMS, 1972-1989

This article tracks trends (early 1970s to late 1980s) in U.S.opinion for 42 General Social Survey items with liberal/ conservativeovertones. The broad question is whether the great "liberal"shift since World War II has ended; the narrow issue is therelative importance of cohort succession and intracohort shifts.Despite common impressions, the overall trend is more liberalthan conservative, but it conceals opposing "weather" and "climate"processes. Within cohorts ("weather") I find a conservativetrend between the early and late 1970s and a liberal "rebound"in the 1980s. Between cohorts virtually all items show smallbut cumulative liberalizing produced by cohort succession. Thesecohort effects are declining in magnitude because the associationbetween year of birth and liberalism is nonlinear. I find acurvilinearity such that Americans born after World War II arenot consistently more liberal than their predecessors. Thisshift is not explained by the lesser schooling of youngest adultsor by ceiling effects. Consequently, I predict lessening ofthe liberalizing "climate" produced by cohort succession. Allthese propositions are qualified, depending on the topic, andthe analysis takes heed of the notorious age/period/cohort identificationproblem.     

Life and death in Hong Kong in an age of cosmopolitanism

Recent events in Hong Kong direct attention to a disturbing trend – the neglect of (selected) life. The society is increasingly discarding its policies and practices concerning immigrant workers, foreign pregnant women and impoverished men and women, whom it deems unworthy of protection or assistance. In this article, I argue for a radical cosmopolitanism that would entail a commitment not only to preventing the taking of life and building a non‐killing society but also to the elimination of the structural conditions that disallow life to the point of death. Drawing on recent bio‐political debates in Hong Kong, I consider the sovereign right over life and death within the neoliberal state. I argue that the state predicates neoliberal sovereignty on a systemic indifference to life; it calculates its bio‐political decisions according to a bio‐arithmetic of economic productivity and social responsibility; and it allows those whom it deems unworthy ‘to die’. As a potential counter discourse, I outline the coordinates and discuss the implications of a commitment to a radical cosmopolitanism.     

QUALITY‐ADJUSTED HUMAN CAPITAL AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH

This article examines the influence of quality‐adjusted educational attainment on growth and tests whether it facilitates the transfer of technology developed at the frontier for a panel of 60 countries. Using outcomes of pathogen stress as instruments, the results show that quality‐adjusted educational attainment and its interaction with distance to the frontier play important roles for growth. (JEL I20, O30, O40)