CHANGEABLE WEATHER IN A COOLING CLIMATE ATOP THE LIBERAL PLATEAU: CONVERSION AND REPLACEMENT IN FORTY-TWO GENERAL SOCIAL SURVEY ITEMS, 1972-1989

This article tracks trends (early 1970s to late 1980s) in U.S.opinion for 42 General Social Survey items with liberal/ conservativeovertones. The broad question is whether the great "liberal"shift since World War II has ended; the narrow issue is therelative importance of cohort succession and intracohort shifts.Despite common impressions, the overall trend is more liberalthan conservative, but it conceals opposing "weather" and "climate"processes. Within cohorts ("weather") I find a conservativetrend between the early and late 1970s and a liberal "rebound"in the 1980s. Between cohorts virtually all items show smallbut cumulative liberalizing produced by cohort succession. Thesecohort effects are declining in magnitude because the associationbetween year of birth and liberalism is nonlinear. I find acurvilinearity such that Americans born after World War II arenot consistently more liberal than their predecessors. Thisshift is not explained by the lesser schooling of youngest adultsor by ceiling effects. Consequently, I predict lessening ofthe liberalizing "climate" produced by cohort succession. Allthese propositions are qualified, depending on the topic, andthe analysis takes heed of the notorious age/period/cohort identificationproblem.     

Life and death in Hong Kong in an age of cosmopolitanism

Recent events in Hong Kong direct attention to a disturbing trend – the neglect of (selected) life. The society is increasingly discarding its policies and practices concerning immigrant workers, foreign pregnant women and impoverished men and women, whom it deems unworthy of protection or assistance. In this article, I argue for a radical cosmopolitanism that would entail a commitment not only to preventing the taking of life and building a non‐killing society but also to the elimination of the structural conditions that disallow life to the point of death. Drawing on recent bio‐political debates in Hong Kong, I consider the sovereign right over life and death within the neoliberal state. I argue that the state predicates neoliberal sovereignty on a systemic indifference to life; it calculates its bio‐political decisions according to a bio‐arithmetic of economic productivity and social responsibility; and it allows those whom it deems unworthy ‘to die’. As a potential counter discourse, I outline the coordinates and discuss the implications of a commitment to a radical cosmopolitanism.     

QUALITY‐ADJUSTED HUMAN CAPITAL AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH

This article examines the influence of quality‐adjusted educational attainment on growth and tests whether it facilitates the transfer of technology developed at the frontier for a panel of 60 countries. Using outcomes of pathogen stress as instruments, the results show that quality‐adjusted educational attainment and its interaction with distance to the frontier play important roles for growth. (JEL I20, O30, O40)     

Sex Hormones and Sexual Desire

Some scholars attempt to explain sexual desire biologically by claiming that sex hormones play a necessary causal role in sexual desire. This can be claimed even if sexual desire is seen to be an experience. Yet the evidence for such biological essentialism is inadequate. With males the loss of sexual desire following hormonal changes can easily be explained in terms of social stigmas that are attached to the physiological situation. Concerning females, the relevance of sex hormones here is even more unclear. Although some women seem to have fluctuations in sexual desire during hormonal changes, other women do not. Even where there are such fluctuations these can be explained by responses to other physiological changes or the meanings that are attached to the situation. Research with non‐human primates supports this view of the non‐essential relation of sex hormones to sexual desire. A phenomenology of sex hormones is given that shows a possible non‐essential relation between sex hormones and sexual desire. Here hormone induced excitations in the genitals may or may not lead to sexual desire depending on the meaning they are given within awareness. This suggests that sexual desire has its origin in the meanings we give our biology and not in our biology itself.     

ESTIMATING DYNAMIC EULER EQUATIONS WITH MULTIVARIATE PROFESSIONAL FORECASTS

Dynamic Euler equations restrict multivariate forecasts and so can be estimated and tested using the predictions of professional forecasters. We illustrate this novel, empirical method by studying the links between forecasts of U.S. nominal interest rates, inflation, and real consumption growth since 1981. Using forecast data for both returns and macroeconomic fundamentals exploits the complete panel of forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, which yields 3,400 observations, many more than the 117 quarterly time‐series observations. Harnessing the full panel enhances precision in testing asset‐pricing models and may avoid aggregation bias. We find clear evidence for the Fisher effect but mixed evidence of a relationship between expectations of real interest rates and real consumption growth. (JEL E17, E21, E43)     

INVESTING IN HEALTH: THE LONG‐TERM IMPACT OF HEAD START ON SMOKING

Head Start is a comprehensive, early childhood development program designed to augment the human capital and health capital levels of disadvantaged children. Evaluations of Head Start have tended to focus on cognitive outcomes; however, there is increasing recognition that other important outcomes can be influenced by participation. This article evaluates the long‐term impact of Head Start participation on smoking behavior in young adulthood by comparing the behavior of adults who attended Head Start with those of siblings who did not. We find that participation in Head Start reduces the probability that an individual smokes cigarettes as a young adult. (JEL I12, I28, I38)     

COMPARING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF REGULATION AND PRO‐SOCIAL EMOTIONS TO ENHANCE COOPERATION: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM FISHING COMMUNITIES IN COLOMBIA

This paper presents the results from a series of framed field experiments conducted in fishing communities off the Caribbean coast of Colombia. The goal is to investigate the relative effectiveness of exogenous regulatory pressure and pro‐social emotions in promoting cooperative behavior in a public goods context. The random public revelation of an individual's contribution and its consequences for the rest of the group leads to significantly higher public good contributions and social welfare than regulatory pressure, even under regulations that are designed to motivate fully efficient contributions. (JEL C93, H41, Q20, Q28)     

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