IN SEARCH OF THE WINNER'S CURSE

Earlier papers on the winner's curse have provided theoretical arguments that winning bidders in an auction will incur ex post losses even when all bidders use reasonable ex ante bidding strategies. This paper demonstrates that these arguments are erroneous: optimal ex ante bidders will never suffer from a winner's curse in an auction where only the winning bid is announced; furthermore, such bidders will on the average not suffer from a winner's curse in an auction where all bids are announced. Thus if a winner's curse is a behavioral reality then bidders are not generally using ex ante optimal strategies.     

Expectation/Disillusion and Presidential Popularity: The Reagan Experience

The Sigelman-Knight analysis of the "expectation/disillusion"interpretation of recurring declines in presidential popularityis replicated with data on the Reagan presidency. There is aconnection between Reagan's popularity and expectations aboutwhat he would be able to accomplish, but (just as was the caseduring the Carter presidency, and directly counter to predictions)it was the more highly educated whose expectations of presidentialperformance were initially highest. Moreover, as time passedthe size of the education-based gap in expectations of Reaganincreased over time. These findings leave the expectation/disillusioninterpretation in considerable doubt.     

Does Where You Stand Depend on When You Were Born? The Impact of Generation on Post-Vietnam Foreign Policy Beliefs

American involvement in Vietnam and its attending domestic conflicthave generated a good deal of speculation about generationaldifferences and, more specifically, about the divergent "lessons"that Americans of different ages have drawn from the most salientforeign policy episodes they have experienced. The most visiblelines of cleavage have quite often been described as fallingbetween those whose views were shaped by the events leadingup to World War II, on the one hand, and, on the other, thosewhose outlook has been molded by the war in Southeast Asia.Using data from questionnaire responses of 2,282 American leadersin various occupations, this article assesses the validity ofthe "Munich generation versus Vietnam generation" thesis. Thefindings indicate that the most salient cleavages on foreignpolicy exist between occupations and within generation, ratherthan vice versa. The article concludes with a discussion ofthe prospects for early achievement of domestic consensus onissues of international politics and American foreign policy.     

Working with Sex Offenders: A Social Skills Training Group

Summary The paper presents an account of a group of sex offenders ina local prison. Nine sessions of social skills training weregiven with the aim of facilitating relationships within theprison and possibly after release.     

STOCK RETURNS, INFLATION, AND REAL OUTPUT

This paper provides empirical evidence on the extent to which the inverse relationship between real stock returns and inflation in recent years is causal or spurious. The results indicate that this relationship is spurious and can be explained by the inverse correlation between unexpected inflation and unexpected real output. The expected and unexpected real output and inflation variables are generated from the ASA/NBER Business Outlook Surveys.