Constituency Opinion: A Test of the Surrogate Model

Using direct measures of district opinion, this article teststhe linearity and additivity assumptions of the surrogate model.Neither assumption is upheld when subjected to appropriate empiricaltests     

The Impact of Character-training Courses Upon Young People: an Empirical Investigation

Summary This article reports an attempt to assess the impact of character-trainingcourses upon young people. Seventy-seven young people from aLancashire-based company were interviewed both before, and aftertheir participation on the courses. From previous studies andliterature produced by the courses, five possible effects werehypothesized: (1) That the courses increase the social competenceof trainees. (2) That following the courses young people putmore into and get more out of life. (3) Trainees subsequentlydevelop new leisure interests. (4) The courses develop leadershipqualities. (5) Following courses young people are more likelyto participate in community service. The interview scheduleswere designed to test these hypotheses. Comparisons betweenreplies received from pre- and post-trainees confirmed onlyone of the hypotheses: following their training the young peopledid develop leisure interests related to the content of thecourses. Otherwise the data collected before and after the coursesdid not follow the predicted patterns. Further analysis of thedata suggested that the courses have an additional and unintendedeffect: namely that they make young people less settled at work     

TAXES, TORTS, AND THE TOXICS RELEASE INVENTORY: CONGRESSIONAL VOTING ON INSTRUMENTS TO CONTROL POLLUTION

Theories of rational political ignorance and congressional voting imply that Congress members may take different interests into account when they vote on technical amendments than when they vote on a bill's final passage. This article uses votes on Superfund reauthorization to examine what factors influence politicians' support for different instruments to control pollution and how the interests Congress members take into account vary with the anticipated degree of electoral scrutiny. Controlling for a legislator's general support for environmental programs, a representative's votes on specific policy instruments in Superfund legislation depended on the district-level costs and benefits of the instruments.     

Parton, Howe and Postmodernity: A Critical Comment on Mistaken Identity

Correspondence to Carole Smith, School of Social Work,, Department of Social Policy and Social Work, Dover Street Building, The University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL Summary In their contributions to the debate about social work, modernityand postmodernity Parton(1994) and Howe (1994) argue that therecent changes in social work practice can best be understoodas features of, or responses to, the postmodern social orderin which it is located. This has led, they argue, to an increasingfragmentation of the profession and an undermining of its formalknowledge base. We will argue here that, not only does suchan argument oversimplify the nuances of the ‘postmodernity’question, but it represents a misreading of the pressures affectingpractice at this time, which are more properly attributableto the operation of the discourses and ideologies of a particularphase of late capitalism and high modernity.     

Beyond Retroduction? -- Hermeneutics, Reflexivity and Social Work Practice

Correspondence to Susan White, University of Manchester, Department of Social Policy and Social Work, Williamson Building, Oxford Road, Manchester Summary Over the last three decades qualitative research methodologieshave been in the ascent within social science. Yet social workevaluation studies have tended to be quantitative in nature,conventially relying upon the generation of criteria againstwhich interventions are retrospectively judged. The generationof such criteria inevitably depends upon pre-suppositions, whichin themselves go unresearched. As a consequence the .sense makingactivities on which social work interventions depend are renderedimmune from critical analysis. This reflects a broader tendencyfor social work to cling to naive realist epistemologies, whichare arguably obsolete within the interpretive paradigm in whichits activity is properly located. By examining the debates withininterpretive social science, this paper argues for an approachto social work assessment which avoids the pitfalls of naiveobjectivism and the nihilism of anarchic relativism, whilstretaining creativity, imagination and hope.     

THE PRODUCTION IMPACT OF “CASH‐FOR‐CLUNKERS”: IMPLICATIONS FOR STABILIZATION POLICY

Stabilization policies frequently aim to boost spending as a means to increase gross domestic product. Spending does not necessarily translate into production, however, especially when inventories are involved. We look at the “cash‐for‐clunkers” program that helped finance the purchase of nearly 700,000 vehicles in 2009. An analysis of auto sales and production movements reveals that the program did prompt a large spike in sales. But the program had only a modest and fleeting impact on production, as inventories buffered the movements in sales. These findings suggest caution in judging the efficacy of such policies by their impact on spending alone. (JEL E23, E65, L62)     

Forecasting lead times with economic data

Procurement lead time estimates are critical factors in production planning; however, they are generally based on a buyer's experience. The Westinghouse Corporation developed a linear model which successfully predicted procurement lead times for hot and cold rolled steel. This paper discusses nine models which use utilization and inventory data to predict lead time planning factors for aluminum, magnesium, steel and titanium products. The Lockheed-Georgia Company, which produces aerospace products, provided data for this research. The functional form of the models is significant and suggests that a nonlinear transformation of utilization based upon simple queueing models is a significant predictor of lead time duration.     

ARE PART-TIME WOMEN PAID LESS? A MODEL WITH FIRM-SPECIFIC EFFECTS

This paper uses data from a survey of child-care establishments to compare part-and full-time wages within two narrow occupations, one high skill and one low skill. Unlike previous studies, it controls for firm-specific effects. We find that when firm-specific effects are accounted for, only the low-skill workers in our sample receive lower wages for working part-time. On the other hand, when compensation is defined to include prorated fringe benefits, establishments appear to compensate both high- and low-skill part-timers at a lower hourly rate.     

Using a Markov Chain to Construct a Tractable Approximation of an Intractable Probability Distribution

Abstract.  Let π denote an intractable probability distribution that we would like to explore. Suppose that we have a positive recurrent, irreducible Markov chain that satisfies a minorization condition and has π as its invariant measure. We provide a method of using simulations from the Markov chain to construct a statistical estimate of π from which it is straightforward to sample. We show that this estimate is 'strongly consistent' in the sense that the total variation distance between the estimate and π converges to 0 almost surely as the number of simulations grows. Moreover, we use some recently developed asymptotic results to provide guidance as to how much simulation is necessary. Draws from the estimate can be used to approximate features of π or as intelligent starting values for the original Markov chain. We illustrate our methods with two examples.