ESTIMATING DYNAMIC EULER EQUATIONS WITH MULTIVARIATE PROFESSIONAL FORECASTS

Dynamic Euler equations restrict multivariate forecasts and so can be estimated and tested using the predictions of professional forecasters. We illustrate this novel, empirical method by studying the links between forecasts of U.S. nominal interest rates, inflation, and real consumption growth since 1981. Using forecast data for both returns and macroeconomic fundamentals exploits the complete panel of forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, which yields 3,400 observations, many more than the 117 quarterly time‐series observations. Harnessing the full panel enhances precision in testing asset‐pricing models and may avoid aggregation bias. We find clear evidence for the Fisher effect but mixed evidence of a relationship between expectations of real interest rates and real consumption growth. (JEL E17, E21, E43)     

Childhood mortality and quality of care among abandoned children in nineteenth-century Italy

A great deal of scholarly attention has been devoted in recent years to the large-scale abandonment of newborn babies in the European past, with special emphasis given to the staggering rates of infant mortality among the foundlings. For the most part, scholars have agreed with the foundling home officials of the past in assigning much of the blame for this excess mortality to the women who took in the foundlings as wetnurses and subsequently as foster mothers. This article takes issue with this view, based on an examination of the children abandoned at the foundling home of Bologna, Italy in the nineteenth century. Four cohorts of foundlings are examined - those abandoned in 1809–30, 1829–30, 1849–50, and 1869–70 (N=3615) - as we trace the changing pattern of infant and early childhood mortality. Longitudinal methods are used in examining the life course of these foundlings and the determinants of their mortality.     

INVESTING IN HEALTH: THE LONG‐TERM IMPACT OF HEAD START ON SMOKING

Head Start is a comprehensive, early childhood development program designed to augment the human capital and health capital levels of disadvantaged children. Evaluations of Head Start have tended to focus on cognitive outcomes; however, there is increasing recognition that other important outcomes can be influenced by participation. This article evaluates the long‐term impact of Head Start participation on smoking behavior in young adulthood by comparing the behavior of adults who attended Head Start with those of siblings who did not. We find that participation in Head Start reduces the probability that an individual smokes cigarettes as a young adult. (JEL I12, I28, I38)     

COMPARING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF REGULATION AND PRO‐SOCIAL EMOTIONS TO ENHANCE COOPERATION: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM FISHING COMMUNITIES IN COLOMBIA

This paper presents the results from a series of framed field experiments conducted in fishing communities off the Caribbean coast of Colombia. The goal is to investigate the relative effectiveness of exogenous regulatory pressure and pro‐social emotions in promoting cooperative behavior in a public goods context. The random public revelation of an individual's contribution and its consequences for the rest of the group leads to significantly higher public good contributions and social welfare than regulatory pressure, even under regulations that are designed to motivate fully efficient contributions. (JEL C93, H41, Q20, Q28)     

这些方法让你成为人生赢家

正如果你想改变你人生中的某一方面,不管是去创业还是减肥或者移民,以下8条建议都能帮助你达到你的目标,得到自己想要的,最终成为一名人生赢家。不要在意他人的眼光我知道不去顾及他人的眼光是一件很难的事,但是一旦你做到了你的人生将发     

AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF CHARITABLE GIVING WITH INTERDEPENDENT PREFERENCES

Many economists and social scientists have conjectured that individual gifts to charity may be interdependent. This paper explores empirically how an individual's charitable contributions may be affected by the giving of others in a "reference group" of similar individuals. We find modest evidence of interdependence of preferences through these reference groups, although the aggregate effects are not large. Hence, we conclude that the inferences from standard models, which ignore interdependence of preferences, are not likely to be misleading. ( JEL H31, H41, D12)     

Classifying Undecided Voters in Pre-Election Polls

The treatment of "don't know", "no opinion," or other nsonsubstantiveresponses is a problem in many consumer research surveys. Thispaper looks at the problem in the context of 1980 presidentialelection opinion polls. During the campaign, a relatively largeproportion of those interviewed said that they were undecidedas to whom they planned to vote for. Discriminant analysis isused to allocate undecided voters to candidates. The methodis validated by a postelection follow-up survey.     

A THREE-PHASE APPROACH TO INSTILLING A CONTINUOUS LEARNING CULTURE IN MANUFACTURING EDUCATION AND TRAINING

We describe a “learn-by-doing” approach that involves the following three phases designed in part to integrate management and engineering curricula and instill a continuous learning philosophy: (1) involve cross-functional teams as “process and business owners” in a replica of a real-life manufacturing/design problem (Do), (2) require teams to not only learn by doing but to then apply or implement what they have learned in phase 1 (Apply), and (3) share best practices and knowledge gained with subsequent participants (Document). These last two phases are essential and potentially the most valuable but are often ignored in the learning process. They can be accomplished either manually or through the use of an electronic bookshelf (e.g., company or school intranet), which is a database system used to collect and store templates of best practices, collective wisdom, and related information associated with learning and operational activities. We describe two of several educational packages we have developed and discuss their impact on our teaching, our students, and practitioners.     

A SYSTEMATIC STRATEGY FOR OPTIMIZING MANUFACTURING OPERATIONS

A manufacturing optimization strategy is developed and demonstrated, which combines an asset utilization model and a process optimization framework with multivariate statistical analysis in a systematic manner to focus and drive process improvement activities. Although this manufacturing strategy is broadly applicable, the approach is discussed with respect to a polymer sheet manufacturing operation. The asset utilization (AU) model demonstrates that efficient equipment utilization can be monitored quantitatively and improvement opportunities identified so that the greatest benefit to the operation can be obtained. The process optimization framework, comprised of three parallel activities and a designed experiment, establishes the process-product relationship. The overall strategy of predictive model development provided from the parallel activities comprising the optimization framework is to synthesize a model based on existing data, both qualitative and quantitative, using canonical discriminant analysis, to identify main effect variables affecting the principal efficiency constraints identified using AU, operator knowledge and order-of-magni-tude calculations are then employed to refine this model using designed experiments, where appropriate, to facilitate the development of a quantitative, proactive optimization strategy for eliminating the constraints. Most importantly, this overall strategy plays a significant role in demonstrating, and facilitating employee acceptance, that the manufacturing operation has evolved from an experienced-based process to one based on quantifiable science.     

AN INTEGRATIVE SUMMARY OF DOCTORAL DISSERTATION RESEARCH IN QUALITY MANAGEMENT

Since 1980, practitioner interest in the field of quality management (qm) has grown significantly, resulting in academic researchers embracing QM as a legitimate discipline of study. One approach to evaluating the intellectual health of a discipline is an examination of doctoral dissertation research. This work both complements and extends other published reviews of the quality management discipline by analyzing doctoral dissertation research since 1981, categorizing this research, examining shifts in major research themes, evaluating data collection and analysis methodologies, and discussing general trends in this research area. Our findings suggest that the challenges in QM have become more interdisciplinary and integrated, and reveal an encouraging trend toward more rigorous research methodologies and the increased use of theories from other disciplines, leading to a more mature body of research in this field.