Trust after the Global Financial Meltdown

Over the last decade, and culminating in the 2008 global financial meltdown, there has been an erosion of trust and a concomitant rise of distrust in domestic companies, multinational enterprises, and political economies. In response to this attrition, this article presents three arguments. First, we suggest that trust is the “glue” of any viable political economy, and we propose that the stakes of violating public trust are particularly high in light of the asymmetry between trust and distrust. Second, we identify a constellation of key barriers to overcoming distrust that companies face in the current environment: (1) corporate mind‐sets that promote a preoccupation with quantification, hierarchical leadership models, and “blind trust” in authority; (2) the anonymity of core stakeholders; (3) the agency of the media as a driver of the political economy; and (4) firm‐centric models of stakeholder relationships. Third, we argue that, notwithstanding these challenges, these phenomena are not fatal and can be addressed through a holistic transformation in corporate culture. Such a transformation might include a shift to collaborative leadership models and replacing authority models with responsibility, a “names and faces” approach to stakeholders through cases and stories, more egalitarian communication exchanges with external stakeholders, and a reprioritization of the firm as a vital element among others within a system rather than the central core of a network. We conclude that the value of trust at the individual, institutional, national, and global levels cannot be overstated. Without a reinvigoration of trust in our political economies, at all levels, the future of an economically vibrant planet is indeed bleak.     

A robust logistic discrimination model

Logistic discrimination is a well documented method for classifying observations to two or more groups. However, estimation of the discriminant rule can be seriously affected by outliers. To overcome this, Cox and Ferry produced a robust logistic discrimination technique. Although their method worked in practice, parameter estimation was sometimes prone to convergence problems. This paper proposes a simplified robust logistic model which does not have any such problems and which takes a generalized linear model form. Misclassification rates calculated in a simulation exercise are used to compare the new method with ordinary logistic discrimination. Model diagnostics are also presented. The newly proposed model is then used on data collected from pregnant women at two district general hospitals. A robust logistic discriminant is calculated which can be used to predict accurately which method of feeding a woman will eventually use: breast feeding or bottle feeding.     

Lévy‐based Modelling in Brain Imaging

Abstract. A substantive problem in neuroscience is the lack of valid statistical methods for non‐Gaussian random fields. In the present study, we develop a flexible, yet tractable model for a random field based on kernel smoothing of a so‐called Lévy basis. The resulting field may be Gaussian, but there are many other possibilities, including random fields based on Gamma, inverse Gaussian and normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) Lévy bases. It is easy to estimate the parameters of the model and accordingly to assess by simulation the quantiles of test statistics commonly used in neuroscience. We give a concrete example of magnetic resonance imaging scans that are non‐Gaussian. For these data, simulations under the fitted models show that traditional methods based on Gaussian random field theory may leave small, but significant changes in signal level undetected, while these changes are detectable under a non‐Gaussian Lévy model.     

COLLUSION AND OVERLENDING

This study provides a theoretical background for collusion-induced overlending being the main cause of the 1997 Korean financial crisis. Our model consists of a lending institution, a borrowing chaebol of an unknown type, and an informed politician who can influence lending decision. We show that collusion can be formed between a low-type chaebol and the politician, and it may not be the lending institution's best interest to deter such collusion. This equilibrium, however, is possible only when the economic environment is favorable. When the economy deteriorates, the expectations of the fall of the collusion equilibrium can trigger financial crisis. (JEL G30, D82, O16)     

A Note on Collapsibility in DAG Models of Contingency Tables

Abstract.  Necessary and sufficient conditions for collapsibility of a directed acyclic graph (DAG) model for a contingency table are derived. By applying the conditions, we can easily check collapsibility over any variable in a given model either by using the joint probability distribution or by using the graph of the model structure. It is shown that collapsibility over a set of variables can be checked in a sequential manner. Furthermore, a DAG is compared with its moral graph in the context of collapsibility.     

论哲学与政策过程

哲学从最广义的角度讲,可以定义为“大量观念的集合体”。人们对任何事物的任何看法都可以称之为观念,看法本身也就是观念。因此一切学科都可以看作是广义上的哲学;政策是“旨在实现组织的理想与目的的基本目标、计划及工作”。从体系观点看,政策概念包括上位概念和下位概念,上位概念包括理想、目标,而下位概念有着计划、方案、活动。哲学是政策形成和执行的基础和前提,在一定的意义上政策本身就是哲学;参与政策过程的利害当事人包括最高统治者、部门的政策决定者、政策执行者、政策受惠者乃至一般顾客。参与政策过程的利益当事人都应该有坚定的哲学,没有坚定的哲学很难保证政策效果。     

人间和自然的相生与融合——21世纪生态界危机和韩国儒学

儒教内含着丰富的人与自然和谐共处的有机体思考方式和生态论式要素。这种要素为克服机械式世界观、人类肆意破坏大自然提供了理论基础,同时也为树立生态中心主义理论的形成提供了可能性。韩国的儒教也不例外。文章试图通过对韩国性理学者栗谷李珥、阳明学者霞谷郑齐斗,还有实学者湛軒洪大容及燕巖朴趾源等学者们思想的分析,找出其中有机体的、生态论的要素,为"韩国生态儒教"的确立提供基础。性理学者栗谷主张天地万物和人是同体,宇宙自然是一个有生命力的有机体,认为人类的生命源于宇宙自然,追求人与自然合一。在栗谷那里,人类被定义为赋予了以天地之心去照顾和养育自然的义务的存在。人类主体、能动地参与天地的化育中去,达到自然和人类合二为一的时候才能真正感受到乐趣(真乐)。阳明学者霞谷则主张人类和万物的同一性和一体性,把人类的心规定为天地之灵,即与万物感应的主体。人类通过生生不息的仁体的发显和展开来参与到宇宙自然万物的创生、养育过程中,来实现生命的本质,忠实履行天地之灵的作用。在性理学和阳明学看来,人类不是征服自然的主体,更不是自然的支配者。也不像在生态中心主义主张的那样,被赋予了同自然物等同的价值,作为自然的一部分生活的寒酸的存在。人类是在这个世界上最优越的存在,所以被称为天地之心或天地之灵,同时也被赋予了保护和养育自然的义务和责任。这种思考既能克服人类中心主义把自然看作是道具的弊端,也可以避免生态中心主义忽视人类价值的缺陷。实学家湛轩和燕严把自然物视为"活物",在重视人类和自然的有机统一关系方面与栗谷或霞谷持有类似的观点。但与栗谷和霞谷把人类规定为天地之心或天地之灵相比,湛轩和燕严则主张从天的立场上来看人和事物时二者的存在是平等,即人与事物的均等性,并提示了人与自然在平等的条件下互相尊重、互相帮助、互相依靠、相辅相助、共存共生的原理。人物均思想与生态学的平等主义相通,相生的原理和生态主义者的共生的原理也是一致的。这种认为人和事物平等的思考不仅是对‘自然存在物的尊重’,而且更进一步讲是‘追求人类和自然存在的和谐和共存’,为克服人类中心主义提供了契机。而且也可以避免性理学者们一不小心会倾向人类中心主义的顾虑,但有必要过于倾向于人均等而造成不利的影响。