Improving the RHC-strategy

It is well known that the RHC-strategy is inadmissible. For example, Rao-Blackwellization yields a strategy which has uniformly smaller risk than the RHC-strategy. The complicated form of the Blackwellized RHC-strategy as well as its inadmissibility is a disadvantage of this strategy. We propose a new strategy which has also uniformly smaller risk than the RHC-strategy. Some optimality results are derived.     

Spontaneous evolution of social exchange—An experimental study

Each of several exchange partners owns a specific commodity which she can share with others. Unlike in other social dilemma scenarios like prisoners’ dilemma, public goods games, etc., voluntary cooperation relies on bilateral exchanges whose profitabilities are interdependent. How will mutual sharing evolve? Will it include all group members or will smaller groups be more efficient? Our experimental data shed partly new light on older topics: cooperation is now relation specific, allowing for discrimination; group size effects are explored dynamically rather than in one-shot interaction; and, finally, we have weakened demand effects for voluntary cooperation by realistic efficiency gains.     

Was leistet Organisationsentwicklung?

Potentials of organization development (OD) are discussed from the perspectives of organization/client, counselling and science. The focal questions of the discussion are: What can OD achieve compared to strategy consulting? How can both forms be sensibly combined? What are the potentials of a psychologically based form of organizational counselling? Which (potentially latent) functions do organizational consulting / OD fulfil for the client organization? The discussion closes with considerations regarding a potential professionalization and the future of OD.     

Der Change Explorer — ein Instrumentarium zur Exploration und Beratung von Veränderungen in Organisationen

The Change Explorer is a multimethod tool for the evaluation of and improvement in the change management process. It has been developed based on an integrative systemic change management theory. The contribution describes the theoretical background and different modules, like the interview with card and structure analysis techniques, questionnaires, and results workshop, performed with the key persons involved in the changes. Flexible application possibilities, high practice acceptance and typical results are shown by three project examples. The first is a scientific research study on changes at the police; the second is an applied evaluation and improvement project of the change management at all important changes of a group of companies, and the third is an explorative study of change management in bicultural teams. The tool promotes common self-reflection under consideration of the different perspectives of the key persons involved. This allows developing improvements in the change management in a workshop of the interview partners, better supported by common experience. Important is here particularly the recording of concrete qualitative information on evaluation criteria and success factors by the interviews besides the assessment of quantitative data.     

Trend and seasonal decomposition in discrete time

A time series is decomposed into a trend-cyclical plus seasonal component by minimizing the sum of a smoothness and a goodness of fit criterion. The smoothness criterion is such that polynomials (trend-cyclical component) and trigonometric functions (seasonal component) are rated with the ideal value zero. The residual sum of squares serves as goodness of fit criterion. The solution is then decomposed into the two components in a natural way.     

Zur Gesellschaftsdynamik der Interkulturalit?t �C Implikationen f��r Supervision und Organisationsberatung

Migration has led to growing social diversity. The organisations have to deal with new challenges. Supervision and organisation??s consultancy try to understand the underlying dynamics and deep structures triggered by intercultural situations and to offer adequate consultancy. Experiencing the situations of exclusion or belonging plays a key role for the understanding of the social dynamic of interculturality. To understand the intercultural broadmindedness of the institutions which has been neglected for so long, ??Shifting Baselines?? will be presented as a new concept for supervision and organisation??s consultancy.     

Temporary vs. permanent migration A decision theoretical approach

The decision problem of the guest worker as a target saver is considered. He plans to accumulate capital in the host country for investment in the home country after return migration. As the worker is supposed to be incompletely informed about the economic variables in the host country he might prolong his stay unexpectedly provided the economic conditions in the host country are unfavourable. Explicit conditions for the economic variables are given such that temporary migration turns into permanent migration.We are indebted to an anonymous referee for helpful comments.     

The nearest proportional to size sampling design

The construction of a proportional to size sampling design nearest to a given design is introduced. The realization of the new design can be easily made with the help of the original one.