EXPECTED INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES

While there may have been a Darby-Feldstein effect in the 1960's (interest rates rising by more than expected inflation because of tax considerations), the relationship is so variable that it more likely reflects changing investor confidence in the expected returns to capital assets. In addition, the degree of capacity utilization appears to have a strong influence on short-term interest rates, and there is a statistically significant but quantitatively small liquidity effect from changes in the growth rate of money.     

The (Parlous) State of German Unions

We trace the profound decline in German unionism over the course of the last three decades. Today, just one in five workers is a union member, and whether this degree of penetration is consistent with a corporatist model built on encompassing unions is now moot. The decline in union membership and density is attributable to external forces that have confronted unions in many countries (such as globalization and compositional changes in the workforce), to some specifically German considerations (such as the transition process in post-communist Eastern Germany), and to sustained intervals of classic insider behavior on the part of German unions. The "correctives" have included mergers between unions, decentralization, and wages that are more responsive to unemployment. At issue is the success of these innovations. For instance, the trend toward decentralization in collective bargaining hinges in part on the health of that other pillar of the dual system of industrial relations, the works council. But works council coverage has also declined, leading some observers to equate decentralization with deregulation. While this conclusion is likely too radical, German unions are at the crossroads. We argue that if they fail to define what they stand for, are unable to increase their presence at the workplace, and continue to lack convincing strategies to deal with contemporary economic and political trends working against them, their decline may become a rout.     

Making Judgements about parenting: The Example of Freeing for Adoption

Correspondence to Malcolm Hill, Senior Lecturer in Social work, University of Glasgow Department of Socail Administration and Soical work, Lilybank House, Bute Gardens, Glasgow G12 8RT. Summary Social workers frequently are involved in assessments aboutparenting. Thes issues are posed in a particularly Sharp formjudgements need to be made which may transfer parental rightsand reponsiblities permanently, as in cases of freeing for adoption.This article draws on a wider evaluation of freeing to identifythe key dimensions of parent child relations which influencedsocial work and work court decisions. In the majority of cases, there were requests to dispense withbirth parents' agreement to adoption. The principal corcumstanceswhich seen to warrant this involved inital neglect and/or poorbonding following by failure to respond to social work helpafter childern were in care. In most instances, the Courts endorsedthe local authorities position and granted freeing order. However,serveral judgments were in parents' favour. This was relatedsometimes to different perspectives on the relationship betweenfamily circumstances and the precise legal grounds for freeing.Also the lengthy precedures involved menat that in a few instancesthe parents had apperaed to imporve thier situation and so strengthenedthe legal case against freeing.     

Social Work Intervention with a Multiple Sclerosis Population

Correspondence to Dr. G. J. Welch, Department of Social Work, University of Natal, Durban 4001, South Africa. Summary The paper describes a successful social work intervention programmeaimed at stress reduction and increased self-acceptance formembers of a multiple sclerosis self-help group. The clinicalprogramme is described in detail and both statistical and graphedoutcome results are reported.     

CONSUMPTION BENEFITS OF NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE GAME TRIPS ESTIMATED FROM REVEALED AND STATED PREFERENCE DEMAND DATA

This paper examines the demand for hockey game trips among metropolitan and nonmetropolitan residents of Alberta, Canada. Using data on both revealed and stated preference game‐trip behavior from a telephone survey conducted throughout Alberta, we estimate the effect of ticket prices, team quality, arena amenities, and capacity on the latent demand for National Hockey League hockey games. We find that lower ticket prices, higher team quality, and additional capacity encourage attendance. In the status quo scenario, consumer surplus per game is $50 for those who had attended hockey games and about 50% less for those who had not attended games. Exploiting the stated preference data, we develop a number of other consumer surplus estimates. We also include travel costs in the estimation of the demand function and estimate the full value of the game trip considering both ticket prices and travel costs. Sold‐out arenas in Calgary and Edmonton generate annual consumption benefits of $40 and $35 million when only ticket prices are used to calculate consumer surplus (i.e., excluding travel costs). Considering the full‐price consumer surplus for the Calgary Flames of $103 per game trip, the annual consumption benefits may be as high as $82 million. (JEL R22, L83, D61)     

Two Facets of Peer Review and the Proper Role of Study Sections

The current National Institutes of Health study section system is under increasing criticism due to tight budgets and decreased levels of perceived competence. There is also an overemphasis on written critiques from the study section by unsuccessful applicants. It is argued that this arises from confusion between two different purposes of peer review. A system of universal participation in peer review by senior funded investigators is proposed to ameliorate these problems.     

Rating Methodological Quality: Toward Improved Assessment and Investigation

Assessing methodological quality is considered essential in deciding what investigations to include in research syntheses and in detecting potential sources of bias in meta-analytic results. Quality assessment is also useful in characterizing the strengths and limitations of the research in an area of study. Although numerous instruments to measure research quality have been developed, they have lacked empirically-supported components. In addition, different summary quality scales have yielded different findings when they were used to weight treatment effect estimates for the same body of research. Suggestions for developing improved quality instruments include: distinguishing distinct domains of quality, such as internal validity, external validity, the completeness of the study report, and adherence to ethical practices; focusing on individual aspects, rather than domains of quality; and focusing on empirically-verified criteria. Other ways to facilitate the constructive use of quality assessment are to improve and standardize the reporting of research investigations, so that the quality of studies can be more equitably and thoroughly compared, and to identify optimal methods for incorporating study quality ratings into meta-analyses.     

Fertility transition in a rural,Catholic population: Bavaria, 1880–1910

The decline of human fertility that occurred in Europe and North America in the nineteenth century, and elsewhere in the twentieth, remains a topic of debate largely because there is no accepted explanation for the event. This paper uses district-level data from Bavaria to study the correlates of the decline of fertility in that German kingdom in the nineteenth century. Bavaria's fertility transition was later and less dramatic than in other parts of Germany. Our results for Bavaria indicate that the European Fertility Project was right about the role of religion and secularization, but missed an important role for the economic and structural effects stressed by economic historians.     

The use of period batch control (PBC) in the implosive industries

Period batch control (PBC) is a just-in-time (JIT) production control system of the flow control, single cycle type. It was developed in the UK before the Second World War, by the late R. J. Gigli, who installed it in 30 different factories and used it to regulate the manufacture of Spitfire fighter aircraft for the Battle of Britain. Implosive industries are those—such as foundries, glass works, spinning mills and potteries, among others—which produce a wide variety of different products from a very small number of material items. The paper shows how PBC is used in implosive industries, and explains why it is normally the best method to adopt in such factories.