Judgment Analysis in Policy Formation: A New Method for Improving Public Participation

Effective communication between citizens and public officialsis essential to a representative democracy, but conventionalmethods of communication are inade- quate for the process ofcomplex policy formation. Such inadequacy is due, at least inpart, to known difficulties of understanding and describingcognitive processes. A new method, derived from social judgmenttheory, which enhances the quality of communication betweenthe public and its representatives, is described and illustrated.     

From Community to Public Safety Governance in Policing and Child Protection

L'interopérabilité grandissante entre le maintien de l'ordre et la protection de l'enfant au Canada et au Royaume‐Uni semble indiquer que nous nous trouvons au milieu d'un changement gouvernemental passant de la gouvernance communautaire à une gouvernance de la sécurité publique. En effet, les discours mettant l'accent sur l'expertise locale en maintien de l'ordre et en protection de l'enfant se sont grandement transformés en raison des critiques sur le manque d'interdépendance entre les organismes. Les deux pays ont maintenant créé des bases de données interinstitutionnelles pour la gestion des personnes à risque. Cette intégration administrative engendre différentes formes de réglementations. Les auteurs concluent leur article en soutenant que cet ethos émergeant peut être conceptualisé comme une rationalité gouvernementale naissante. The growing interoperability between policing and child protection in Canada and the United Kingdom suggests that we are in the midst of a governmental shift from community governance to public safety governance. Indeed, discourses emphasizing local expertise in policing and child protection have largely muted because of criticisms over the lack of interagency interconnectedness. Both countries have now developed national interagency databases for the management of persons of risk. This institutional integration engenders different forms of regulation. We conclude by arguing that this emergent ethos may be conceptualized as a nascent governmental rationality.     

AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF CHARITABLE GIVING WITH INTERDEPENDENT PREFERENCES

Many economists and social scientists have conjectured that individual gifts to charity may be interdependent. This paper explores empirically how an individual's charitable contributions may be affected by the giving of others in a "reference group" of similar individuals. We find modest evidence of interdependence of preferences through these reference groups, although the aggregate effects are not large. Hence, we conclude that the inferences from standard models, which ignore interdependence of preferences, are not likely to be misleading. ( JEL H31, H41, D12)     

Public Attitudes Toward Freedom of the Press

This article presents findings on a study of public attitudestoward the rights and responsibilities of the media. Publicthinking about freedom of the press appears to be dominatedby a principle of fairness. Specifically, people want and expectthe communications media to provide equal coverage to opposingpolitical candidates and to present both sides of controversialissues. Despite other studies showing a lack of political tolerance,the public is willing to permit considerable diversity in thepoints of view that are presented in the media. Although thepublic rejects many proposals for censorship laws, it does support"fairness-enhancing" laws. The authors hypothesize that thepublic's perspective on freedom of the press grows out of itsrole as listeners rather than as speakers.     

Classifying Undecided Voters in Pre-Election Polls

The treatment of "don't know", "no opinion," or other nsonsubstantiveresponses is a problem in many consumer research surveys. Thispaper looks at the problem in the context of 1980 presidentialelection opinion polls. During the campaign, a relatively largeproportion of those interviewed said that they were undecidedas to whom they planned to vote for. Discriminant analysis isused to allocate undecided voters to candidates. The methodis validated by a postelection follow-up survey.     

DYNAMIC FEEDING IN A STOCHASTIC PARALLEL PROCESSING SYSTEM

I consider a dynamic input scheduling problem of a stochastic parallel processing system consisting of n identical flexible machining cells. The processing times at each cell are independent random variables. Previous study has indicated the NP complexity of the problem. In this paper, I prove the separability under an ideal just-in-time input condition. Using the separability, I then construct an approximation procedure for most realistic applications where the separability condition is violated. The approximation procedure requires only linear time and performed quite well on an extensive test with numerical examples.     

THE HUMAN SIDE OF MISTAKE‐PROOFING

Poka‐yoke (mistake‐proofing) is a powerful quality improvement approach, which usually employs relatively simple devices to achieve marked improvements. Inexpensive jigs, fixtures, switches, and gauges act as obvious environmental cues to signal mistake detection. Poka‐yoke has been largely ignored as an avenue for serious academic research. This paper provides scientific underpinning to the largely anecdotal mistake‐proofing literature, by drawing upon research from psychology and cognitive science concerning human error. We delineate areas where additional research would be worthwhile, and guide practitioners in understanding what they are trying to accomplish and how poka‐yoke devices attain this end.     

Models for Dependent Extremes Using Stable Mixtures

Abstract.  This paper unifies and extends results on a class of multivariate extreme value (EV) models studied by Hougaard, Crowder and Tawn. In these models, both unconditional and conditional distributions are themselves EV distributions, and all lower-dimensional marginals and maxima belong to the class. One interpretation of the models is as size mixtures of EV distributions, where the mixing is by positive stable distributions. A second interpretation is as exponential-stable location mixtures (for Gumbel) or as power-stable scale mixtures (for non-Gumbel EV distributions). A third interpretation is through a peaks over thresholds model with a positive stable intensity. The mixing variables are used as a modelling tool and for better understanding and model checking. We study EV analogues of components of variance models, and new time series, spatial and continuous parameter models for extreme values. The results are applied to data from a pitting corrosion investigation.     

EDUCATIONAL BENEFITS AND MILITARY SERVICE: AN ANALYSIS OF ENLISTMENT,REENLISTMENT, AND VETERANS' BENEFIT USAGE 1991–2005*

Montgomery GI Bill (MGIB) educational benefits are a prime recruiting tool in today's all‐volunteer military. This paper studies the effects of changes in education benefits using data of the period 1990–2005. Higher benefits lead to higher separation due to both pure incentive effects and by attracting more college‐oriented youth into military service. We deal with potential selection issues by distinguishing between anticipated and unanticipated benefit changes. Higher education benefits are associated with higher separation from the Army and Air Force, but not the other services. A $10,000 increase in MGIB benefits is estimated to increase usage by about 5 percentage points, but the duration of usage is estimated to be insensitive to benefit levels. (JEL H52, I21, J24)