Using a Reconviction Predictor to Make Sense of Reconviction Rates in the Probation Service

Correspondence to John Wilkinson, Research Officer, Inner London Probation Service, Lansdale House, 57 Buckingham Gate, London SW1E 6AJ. Summary Reducing offending is a main aim of the probation service, butfew mechanisms exist to monitor how this is achieved. This paperdescribes how information about reconvictions can provide routinefeedback about effectiveness in combating offending. Using areconviction predictor, outcome, in terms of reconviction rate,can be evaluated against predicted outcome. A predictor wasvalidated for use in Inner London using case records. Informationwas obtained retrospectively about offenders at the start oftheir probation orders, and about subsequent reconvictions overthirteen months of probation. The predictor was found to haveconsiderable predictive power. The predictor was piloted forroutine use by probation officers, and a customized versionof the predictor was developed. The research is now moving intoa third stage, of developing an end of probation order returnwhich will supply information about reconvictions. Issues relatingto the use of reconvictions as a performance indicator, aondquestions of implementation, are discussed.     

EVIDENCE ON PRICE ADJUSTMENT COSTS IN U.S. MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY

This paper investigates the degree of rigidity in prices of manufactured products in the U.S., conditional on labor costs. I extend Rotemberg's model of quadratic price-adjustment costs and find that prices are costly to adjust: after a year, about 40 percent of adjustment remains to be completed for aggregate manufacturing, while for some industries the adjustment is twice as slow. But manufacturing prices are less sluggish than prices in the U.S. economy as a whole. Thus, nominal rigidity in other markets, such as those for services or labor, may be important.     

WHAT DO OPEN-ENDED QUESTIONS MEASURE?

Open-ended questions are frequently used by survey researchersto measure public opinion. Some scholars, however, have doubtsabout how accurately these kinds of questions measure the viewsof the public. A chief concern is that the questions tap, inpart, people's ability to articulate a response, not their underlyingattitudes. This paper tests whether this concern is warranted.Using open-ended questions from the Center for Political Studies,I show that almost all people respond to open-ended questions.The few individuals who do not respond appear uninterested inthe specific question posed, not unable to answer such questionsin general. These findings should increase our confidence inwork of scholars who have relied on open-ended questions.     

EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES OF CONSUMER DEMAND BEHAVIOR USING LABORATORY ANIMALS*

Using laboratory animals as subjects, two series of experimental studies of consumer demand behavior are reported. The experiments show that laboratory animals will change consumption patterns in response to changes in the budget set, consuming more of the lower priced commodities and less of the higher priced commodities. Large rotations in the budget line for essential commodities resulted in severe disruption of consumer behavior. The experiments demonstrate the feasibility of using non-human subjects in laboratory studies of economic behavior.     

MIGHT MAKES RIGHTS: A THEORY OF THE FORMATION AND INITIAL DISTRIBUTION OF PROPERTY RIGHTS

This paper is a theoretical and empirical investigation into the formation and initial distribution of property rights. Violence is singled out as a major constraint on this formation process. Its role is explicitly modeled in a choice theoretic framework and some of the implications are tested using data collected from contracts written during the California gold rush of 1848.