Population growth,farmland, and the long-run standard of living

This paper studies the natural-resources element in the theory of population growth over the very long run. In the context of the stock of land and Malthusian crises in earlier times, the model shows how resources have become more available rather than more scarce, even as population and income have increased.The paper sketches a mechanism which, added to the Malthusian system, leads to entirely different conclusions than does the Malthusian system. Using the illustration of food and land, change in knowledge and hence in the stock of resources is made a function of the stock of knowledge and the price of resources. The speed of adjustment depends on the economic and social climate for the development of new knowledge. Population growth first raises food and land prices, which then stimulate the creation of new resources, eventually leading to less scarcity of resources and lower prices than originally prevailed.That is, population growth creates new problems which in the short run constitute additional burdens which, in the longer run, lead to new developments that leave people better off than if the problems had never arisen.This paper benefitted from being presented in earlier draft at a Population Association of America meeting, to the Economic History workshop at the University of Illinois, and to a seminar of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population in New Delhi. We appreciate valuable comments on earlier drafts from Stanley Engerman, E. L. Jones, William McNeill, and two anonymous referees. Gunter Steinmann acknowledges financial support from the Volkswagen Foundation and a travel grant from Fulbright Commission.     

Estimation of mortality from orphanhood in adulthood

This paper extends earlier research into methods for estimating adult mortality from information on the recent incidence of orphanhood. It presents a series of regression coefficients for estimating female and male mortality from synthetic cohort data on the subsequent orphanhood of those who had a living mother or father at exact age 20. Such information can be obtained either where questions about parental survival have been asked in two inquiries or by asking retrospectively about dates of orphanhood in a single survey. Although the method is somewhat sensitive to errors in the reporting of ages and dates, it is a promising source of up-to-date estimates of adult mortality that are free from bias due to the underreporting of the orphanhood of young children ("the adoption effect").     

The effects of regulatory tools on organizational populations

One of the main activities of regulation is the control of market development by influencing the number of firms in an industry, their entry into an industry, and their exit from an industry. Population ecology is used as a framework for explaining both the direct and indirect effects of regulatory activity on entry, exit, and market structure. This framework is then used to derive specific propositions about regulatory effects on entry, exit, and market structure in the health maintenance organization industry.     

From QA to TQM

In the decade from 1950 to 1960, two quality-related processes--medical audit and total quality management--were being developed, one directly in the health care field and the other in the manufacturing sector. These processes remained isolated from each other until the mid-1980s. Each would have a separate but major effect on the health care industry.     

From quality assurance to continuous quality improvement

To change from punitive and legalistic QA to positive and productive CQI, both attitudes and methods must change. This is a difficult challenge, but potential rewards for both the organization and its individual members suggest that the effort is worthwhile and deserves high priority. Members of the executive/management team will likely turn to physician executives for guidance on how to proceed.     

Common sense leadership

Common sense has to do with problem solving. In the complexities of everyday human life, we are faced time and again with the need to solve problems. In fact, every situation we face, at least at the first exposure, requires some form of problem solving. When we want food, we have to solve a series of problems from acquisition to preparation to serving and eating. When we deal with organizational needs, problem solving is the daily fare.     

RACE-OF-INTERVIEWER EFFECTS IN A PREELECTION POLL VIRGINIA 1989

All published preelection surveys of the 1989 Virginia gubernatorialcontest overestimated the vote share of the black candidateand eventual victor, Douglas Wilder. We offer a "social desirability"interpretation of the polls' inaccuracies and hypothesize thatclaiming support for Wilder was the socially desirable responsefor some whites, especially when the interviewer was black.We show a race-of-interviewer effect on the vote intention ofwhite respondents of 8–11 percentage points in a preelectionsurvey of Virginia voters. The effects were greatest among whiteDemocrats and among whites who were more uncertain of theirvote intention. We discuss the implications of these findingsfor race-of-interviewer research and for improving the accuracyof preelection forecasts in contests with black and white opposingcandidates.