Bayesian Estimation and Prediction for the Beta-Binomial Model

The beta-binomial distribution, which is generated by a simple mixture model, has been widely applied in the social, physical, and health sciences. Problems of estimation, inference, and prediction have been addressed in the past, but not in a Bayesian framework. This article develops Bayesian procedures for the beta-binomial model and, using a suitable reparameterization, establishes a conjugate-type property for a beta family of priors. The transformed parameters have interesting interpretations, especially in marketing applications, and are likely to be more stable. More specifically, one of these parameters is the market share and the other is a measure of the heterogeneity of the customer population. Analytical results are developed for the posterior and prediction quantities, although the numerical evaluation is not trivial. Since the posterior moments are more easily calculated, we also propose the use of posterior approximation using the Pearson system. A particular case (when there are two trials), which occurs in taste testing, brand choice, media exposure, and some epidemiological applications, is analyzed in detail. Simulated and real data are used to demonstrate the feasibility of the calculations. The simulation results effectively demonstrate the superiority of Bayesian estimators, particularly in small samples, even with uniform (“non-informed”) priors. Naturally, “informed” priors can give even better results. The real data on television viewing behavior are used to illustrate the prediction results. In our analysis, several problems with the maximum likelihood estimators are encountered. The superior properties and performance of the Bayesian estimators and the excellent approximation results are strong indications that our results will be potentially of high value in small sample applications of the beta-binomial and in cases in which significant prior information exists.     

From mood to movement: English nationalism,the European Union and taking back control†

This article considers whether the 2016 EU referendum can be perceived as an English nationalist movement. Specifically, attention is given to examining how memories of the former British Empire were nostalgically enveloped in anxieties regarding England’s location within the devolved UK state. The comments and work of Enoch Powell and George Orwell are used to help explore the link between nostalgia and anxiety in accounts of English nationalism. Despite their opposing political orientations, when considered together, it is argued that both men provide a unique cross-political perspective on Englishness, empire and nostalgia. By way of exploring these themes in relation to the EU referendum, Aughey’s assertion that English nationalism can be perceived as both a “mood” and “movement” is used to highlight how a sense of English anxiety regarding its lack of national sovereignty (mood), as well as a desire to reclaim this sovereignty by renegotiating trade relations with the “Anglo-sphere” (movement), were conjoined in the popular referendum slogan, “take back control”. In conclusion, it is argued that the contextualization of the referendum can be predicated upon an orientation to empire that steers away from glorifying pro-imperial images of England/Britain, towards a more positive and progressive appropriation of the EU referendum as a statement of national change and belonging.     

A theorem relating minque and unweighted means estimators of variance components in the one-way design

The unweighted means estimators of variance components in the one-way design are shown to equal the limit of the weighted MINQUE estimators as the ratio of the treatment variance weight to the error variance weight approaches infinity     

Accounting for the value of volunteer contributions

There is a need for an accounting paradigm that properly illustrates the value that nonprofits generate. Much of that value comes from volunteer contributions, which are significant but for the most part are not included in financial accounting statements, even though our research indicates that they account for almost a third of the value added by these organizations. This article reports the results of two studies related to measuring volunteer value in the accounting of nonprofits and then draws some policy implications from the research. The first study, a survey of 156 nonprofits in Canada, found that although about one‐third of the sample kept records of volunteer hours, only 3 percent included a value for them in their accounting statements. The second study, of nonprofit accountants, found that they did not feel that financial accounting statements properly represented the contribution of their organizations. A series of policy recommendations are presented, including suggestions for revising the regulations of accounting bodies for imputing volunteer value and creating accounting statements that better represent the contribution of nonprofits.     

Robust mixture modeling using the skew <Emphasis Type="Italic">t</Emphasis> distribution

A finite mixture model using the Student's t distribution has been recognized as a robust extension of normal mixtures. Recently, a mixture of skew normal distributions has been found to be effective in the treatment of heterogeneous data involving asymmetric behaviors across subclasses. In this article, we propose a robust mixture framework based on the skew t distribution to efficiently deal with heavy-tailedness, extra skewness and multimodality in a wide range of settings. Statistical mixture modeling based on normal, Student's t and skew normal distributions can be viewed as special cases of the skew t mixture model. We present analytically simple EM-type algorithms for iteratively computing maximum likelihood estimates. The proposed methodology is illustrated by analyzing a real data example.     

The paradox of victory: social movement fields,adverse outcomes,and social movement success

Theory and Society - Recent work on social movement fields has expanded our view of the dynamics of social movements; it should also expand our thinking about social movement success. Such a...     

A Versatile One-Dimensional Distribution Plot: The BLiP Plot

A versatile graphical tool, the BLiP plot, was developed for displaying one-dimensional data. The basic building blocks are boxes, lines, and points. Like many standard one-dimensional distribution plots, the BLiP plot is capable of displaying individual data values in points or lines and grouped information in lines or boxes. In addition, the BLiP plot includes many new features such as variable-width plots and several choices of point patterns. The main advantage of the BLiP plot is that it provides users with basic graphical elements in a friendly and flexible environment so that users can, according to their needs, construct anything from a simple, standard plot to a complex, customized plot to best present their data.     

Climate shocks and the timing of migration from Mexico

Although evidence is increasing that climate shocks influence human migration, it is unclear exactly when people migrate after a climate shock. A climate shock might be followed by an immediate migration response. Alternatively, migration, as an adaptive strategy of last resort, might be delayed and employed only after available in situ (in-place) adaptive strategies are exhausted. In this paper, we explore the temporally lagged association between a climate shock and future migration. Using multilevel event-history models, we analyze the risk of Mexico-US migration over a seven-year period after a climate shock. Consistent with a delayed response pattern, we find that the risk of migration is low immediately after a climate shock and increases as households pursue and cycle through in situ adaptive strategies available to them. However, about 3 years after the climate shock, the risk of migration decreases, suggesting that households are eventually successful in adapting in situ.     

A review and synthesis of demand management, capacity management and performance in health-care services

Responses to demand uncertainty in the field of health-care services is a very timely research issue because of ongoing changes in demand patterns that are driven by demographics and recent changes in the delivery of these services. Despite its importance to researchers, the literature on demand management, capacity management and performance in health care has not been extensively reviewed. The present paper addresses this need by analyzing and synthesizing 463 articles published between 1986 and 2006. The key contributions of this work are the analysis and synthesis of research on demand management, capacity management and performance, along with an agenda to guide future research in this important area.