Child care subsidy and child maltreatment

This study examined the relationship between receipt of child care subsidies and child maltreatment investigations in a sample of low‐income mothers in Illinois. We expected that receiving child care subsidies would have a protective effect on child maltreatment risk and therefore decrease the likelihood of child protective services investigations. Using structural equation modelling, we tested the direct and indirect paths of the receipt of child care subsidies to physical abuse or neglect. We found only direct effects of receiving child care subsidies on both physical abuse and neglect investigations. The findings suggest an important protective role of child care subsidies in the lives of low‐income families.     

The Bullwhip Effect—Impact of Stochastic Lead Time,Information Quality,and Information Sharing: A Simulation Study

We use a simulation model called ‘SISCO’ to examine the effects in supply chains of stochastic lead times and of information sharing and quality of that information in a periodic order‐up‐to level inventory system. We test the accuracy of the simulation by verifying the results in Chen et al. (2000a) and Dejonckheere et al. (2004). We find that lead‐time variability exacerbates variance amplification in a supply chain, and that information sharing and information quality are highly significant. For example, using the assumptions in Chen et al. (2000a) and Dejonckheere et al. (2004), we find in a numerical experiment of a customer‐retailer‐wholesaler‐distributor‐factory supply chain that variance amplification is attenuated by nearly 50 percent at the factory due to information sharing. Other assumptions we make are based on interviews or conversations with managers at large supply chains.     

Risk assessment of banknotes as a fomite of SARS-CoV-2 in cash payment transactions

The COVID 19 pandemic has triggered concerns and assumptions globally about transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus via cash transactions. This paper assesses the risk of contracting COVID-19 through exposure to SARS-CoV-2 via cash acting as a fomite in payment transactions. A quantitative microbial risk assessment was conducted for a scenario assuming an infectious person at the onset of symptoms, when virion concentrations in coughed droplets are at their highest. This person then contaminates a banknote by coughing on it and immediately hands it over to another person, who might then be infected by transferring the virions with a finger from the contaminated banknote to a facial mucous membrane. The scenario considered transfer efficiency of virions on the banknote to fingertips when droplets were still wet and after having dried up and subsequently being touched by finger printing or rubbing the object. Accounting for the likelihood of the scenario to occur by considering (1) a local prevalence of 100 COVID-19 cases/100,000 persons, (2) a maximum of about one-fifth of infected persons transmit high virus loads, and (3) the numbers of cash transactions/person/day, the risk of contracting COVID-19 via person-to-person cash transactions was estimated to be much lower than once per 39,000 days (107 years) for a single person. In the general populace, there will be a maximum of 2.6 expected cases/100,000 persons/day. The risk for a cashier at an average point of sale was estimated to be much less than once per 430 working days (21 months). The depicted scenario is a rare event, therefore, for a single person, the risk of contracting COVID-19 via person-to-person cash transactions is very low. At a point of sale, the risk to the cashier proportionally increases but it is still low.     

Becoming “People of Faith:” Personal Moral Authenticity in the Cultural Practices of a Faith-Based Social Justice Movement

Interactive cultural practices such as songs and storytelling are key to contemporary social movement organizing because they can attenuate the challenges of social difference by expanding participants’ understandings of self and community. Yet the precise cultural dynamics through which such practices become effective are not well understood. Using the case of a large faith-based community organizing coalition, I show that practices focused on personal moral authenticity are especially effective in fostering alignment between social movement goals and individuals’ pre-existing moral commitments. I define personal moral authenticity as the ambition to develop, enact, and perform a moral identity that is “true” to an enduring internal self, and validate that identity through interactions with others. This is an effective basis for organizing practices because it spans the various cultures of commitment that prevail in different racial and religious subgroups and gives individuals a personal stake in social change projects. In highlighting how it animates practices in faith-based community organizing, one of the most robust fields of grassroots civic activity in the United States, this article illuminates an important part of the cultural dynamics underlying much contemporary social change work, and specifies how religion contributes to progressive social change efforts amid ongoing religious disaffiliation.     

Comparison of Bayesian sample size criteria: ACC, ALC, and WOC

A challenge for implementing performance-based Bayesian sample size determination is selecting which of several methods to use. We compare three Bayesian sample size criteria: the average coverage criterion (ACC) which controls the coverage rate of fixed length credible intervals over the predictive distribution of the data, the average length criterion (ALC) which controls the length of credible intervals with a fixed coverage rate, and the worst outcome criterion (WOC) which ensures the desired coverage rate and interval length over all (or a subset of) possible datasets. For most models, the WOC produces the largest sample size among the three criteria, and sample sizes obtained by the ACC and the ALC are not the same. For Bayesian sample size determination for normal means and differences between normal means, we investigate, for the first time, the direction and magnitude of differences between the ACC and ALC sample sizes. For fixed hyperparameter values, we show that the difference of the ACC and ALC sample size depends on the nominal coverage, and not on the nominal interval length. There exists a threshold value of the nominal coverage level such that below the threshold the ALC sample size is larger than the ACC sample size, and above the threshold the ACC sample size is larger. Furthermore, the ACC sample size is more sensitive to changes in the nominal coverage. We also show that for fixed hyperparameter values, there exists an asymptotic constant ratio between the WOC sample size and the ALC (ACC) sample size. Simulation studies are conducted to show that similar relationships among the ACC, ALC, and WOC may hold for estimating binomial proportions. We provide a heuristic argument that the results can be generalized to a larger class of models.     

General Feelings Toward Unions and Employers as Predictors of Union Voting Intent

The union voting intention literature shows that many nonunion employees who indicate that they think unions are instrumental in increasing wages, benefits, and working conditions would vote against forming a union. Although American workers have often been characterized as pragmatic with regard to their support for unions, the “disconnect” between union beliefs and union voting intentions just described suggests that more subtle forces are at work. In this paper, it is shown empirically that union instrumentality is a limited predictor of union voting intentions for a recent national cross-section of workers. Rather, more general feelings toward unions and employers are primary. These accounted for a large portion of the variance in union voting intentions, with general feelings towards unions by far the most critical predictor. A concluding section discusses whether the results may reflect changes in union power and changes in employee views of unions. Areas for future research are discussed.     

Population recovery in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: exploring the potential role of stage migration in migration systems

In this research brief, we explore how places affected by natural disasters recover their populations through indirect, or “stage,” migration. Specifically, we consider the idea that post-disaster impediments (e.g., housing and property damage) in disaster-affected areas spawn migration flows toward and, over time, to disaster-affected areas through intermediary destinations. Taking as our case Orleans Parish over a 5-year period after Hurricane Katrina, we show that stage migration accounted for up to about one-fourth of population recovery. We close by discussing the implications, limitations, and potential extensions of our work.