Analyzing the Demand for Deductible Insurance

This paper investigates aspects of insurance demand related to deductible insurance. In particular, an important issue concerning analysis of the optimal deductible level is resolved. A simple sufficient restriction on the pricing of insurance is given which ensures that the second order condition for choosing the expected utility maximizing deductible level is met for any risk averse decision maker. This restriction is stated and its sufficiency is demonstrated using the level of expected indemnification rather than the level of the deductible as the choice variable in the decision model.     

A novel wearable measurement system for ambulatory assessment of joint loading in the occupational setting

It is know that biomechanical overexposure of the joints is an important cause of occupational injuries. This paper presents a novel wearable measurement system for automated assessment of joint loading in the occupational setting. The wearable measurement system consists of a full body inertial sensor motion capture system which can be worn under the clothes and shoes instrumented with 3D force sensors (ForceShoes). Promising results have been found for the performance of the inertial sensor system and the ForceShoe, separately. Validation experiments are in preparation in which the performance of the combined measurements system will be tested in the laboratory by comparing the assessed joint loading to the joint loading assessed by a conventional state-of-the-art lab-based method.     

Imputation methods for doubly censored HIV data

In medical research, it is common to have doubly censored survival data: origin time and event time are both subject to censoring. In this paper, we review simple and probability-based methods that are used to impute interval censored origin time and compare the performance of these methods through extensive simulations in the one-sample problem, two-sample problem and Cox regression model problem. The use of a bootstrap procedure for inference is demonstrated.     

Ethnicity at the Individual and Neighborhood Level as an Explanation for Moving Out of the Neighborhood

We address the influence of both the ethnic composition of the neighborhood and the ethnicity of individual residents on moving out of neighborhoods in the Netherlands. Using the Housing Research Netherlands survey and multinomial logistic regression analyses of moving out versus not moving or moving within the neighborhood, we found that ethnicity at the individual level was not of much importance for moving out. The combination of ethnicity at the individual level and the neighborhood level, however, appeared to be a rather important explanation of geographical mobility. Ethnic minorities are more likely than native Dutch to move within neighborhoods, and less likely to move away from them, as the share of non-western minorities in those neighborhoods increases. Native Dutch move away more frequently than ethnic minorities as the share of non-western ethnic minorities in neighborhoods is greater. These results suggest ethnic enclave formation or place stratification in the Netherlands.     

The causal response of avian communities to suburban development: a quasi-experimental,longitudinal study

Correlations between urbanization and biodiversity are well known, but the causes driving such associations are lacking. We used a long-term, quasi-experimental approach to study the responses of avian communities to suburban and exurban development around Seattle, WA, USA. We measured indices of bird abundance, reproduction, and survival for 12 years at many locations, including 5 forest ‘reserves,’ 10 existing ‘developments,’ and 11 ‘changing’ sites where ongoing development converted forests to single-family residential neighborhoods. In the first few years of clearing, building, and occupation of new neighborhoods by humans avian communities shifted from those typical of second-growth forest to those more characteristic of developments. During this time avian diversity increased and numerical dominance by abundant birds declined. Species that adapted and exploited development reproduced more successfully there than did forest-dependent species that avoided development. Adults of species that thrived in developments attained equal annual survival across reserved to developed landscapes, while species that avoided neighborhoods tended to survive poorly outside of reserves. The humans living in our study areas frequently fed birds and provided nest boxes. These actions were positively correlated with increases in secondary cavity nesting and seed eating birds. Humans also maintained outdoor cats and 11 % of humans both fed birds and let their cats outside. These actions were negatively correlated with the abundance of birds regularly using feeders. We suggest that a key management goal in urban ecosystems is the maintenance of avian diversity because a diverse avifauna engages a diversity of humans.     

Estimating Housing Quality for Poverty and Development Policy Analysis: CWIQ in Ghana

Inadequate data on housing characteristics and lack of consensusregarding appropriate measures of housing quality characteristicsretard developments to meet housing needs of people in lessdeveloped countries. A constructed housing quality index is developed and Cronbach's alpha and factor analysis are employedeo evaluate its measurement properties. With data from the CoreWelfare Indicators Questionnaire (CWIQ) survey of 1997, theconstructed housing quality index identifies key factors relatedto housing quality in Ghana. Access to quality of life amenities contributes significant information and policy value to traditionalphysical attributes in modeling a housing quality index.     

A COURSE MODEL FOR TEACHING CONCEPTS RELATED TO THE SUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION OF QUANTITATIVE ANALYSES

This paper examines a course model for teaching the concepts of successful implementation of quantitative analyses to both administrative and technical students. The objectives of the course were to examine the principles of effective model building and to examine the problems in communication between administrative and technical individuals. The course model utilizes case study discussions in conjunction with a series of applications projects. The cases illustrated a wide variety of implementation concepts, including concepts related to problem definition, analysis planning, information needs, systems modeling, and general model building philosophies. The applications projects gave the students varied experiences in realistic problem solving. A subjective evaluation of the student's progress in the course did show an increased perceptiveness of what constitutes good model building. The quantitative students in the course seemed to improve in their ability to develop practical solutions to problem solving, while the administrative students improved their ability to communicate with technical individuals and to perform evaluations of technical proposals for quantitative analyses.     

The use of local and nonlocal priors in Bayesian test-based monitoring for single-arm phase II clinical trials

Bayesian sequential monitoring is widely used in adaptive phase II studies where the objective is to examine whether an experimental drug is efficacious. Common approaches for Bayesian sequential monitoring are based on posterior or predictive probabilities and Bayesian hypothesis testing procedures using Bayes factors. In the first part of the paper, we briefly show the connections between test-based (TB) and posterior probability-based (PB) sequential monitoring approaches. Next, we extensively investigate the choice of local and nonlocal priors for the TB monitoring procedure. We describe the pros and cons of different priors in terms of operating characteristics. We also develop a user-friendly Shiny application to implement the TB design.