The selection of zero-non-zero patterned cointegrating vectors in error-correction modelling

An effective and efficient search algorithm has been developed to select from an 1(1) system zero-non-zero patterned cointegrating and loading vectors in a subset VECM, B^q(l)y(t-1) + B^q-1 (L)Ay(t) = ε( t ) , where the long term impact matrix Bq(l) contains zero entries. The algorithm can be applied to higher order integrated systems. The Finnish money-output model presented by Johansen and Juselius (1990) and the United States balanced growth model presented by King, Plosser, Stock and Watson (1991) are used to demonstrate the usefulness of this algorithm in examining the cointegrating relationships in vector time series.     

Manager Characteristics and Employee Job Insecurity around a Merger Announcement: The Role of Status and Crossover

Most existing research theorizes individual factors as predictors of perceived job insecurity. Incorporating contextual and organizational factors at an information technology organization where a merger was announced during data collection, we draw on status expectations and crossover theories to investigate whether managers' characteristics and insecurity shape their employees' job insecurity. We find having an Asian as opposed to a White manager is associated with lower job insecurity, whereas managers' own insecurity positively predicts employees' insecurity. Also contingent on the organizational climate, managers' own tenure buffers, and managers' perceived job insecurity magnifies insecurity of employees interviewed after a merger announcement, further specifying status expectations theory by considering context.     

Recovery migration to the City of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: a migration systems approach

Hurricane Katrina’s effect on the population of the City of New Orleans provides a model of how severe weather events, which are likely to increase in frequency and strength as the climate warms, might affect other large coastal cities. Our research focuses on changes in the migration system—defined as the system of ties between Orleans Parish and all other U.S. counties—between the pre-disaster (1999–2004) and recovery (2007–2009) periods. Using Internal Revenue Service county-to-county migration flow data, we find that in the recovery period, Orleans Parish increased the number of migration ties with and received larger migration flows from nearby counties in the Gulf of Mexico coastal region, thereby spatially concentrating and intensifying the in-migration dimension of this predominantly urban system, while the out-migration dimension contracted and had smaller flows. We interpret these changes as the migration system relying on its strongest ties to nearby and less-damaged counties to generate recovery in-migration.     

The geographic distribution of gaming machine proceeds in New Zealand

ABSTRACT

Within NZ gambling and its associated harms are well-researched topics. However, most studies to date have relied upon the use of survey methodology or have focused on individual regions. In this paper we distribute gaming machine proceeds (GMP) from gaming venues to the surrounding localities in order to derive estimates of GMP per capita. It is hoped these estimates will enable the trusts who operate the electronic gaming machines (EGMs), and who are responsible for reinvesting a proportion of proceeds back into the community, to more accurately target funding towards the areas most affected by the harms of EGM gambling. Our estimates of GMP per capita also provide a means of assessing the criterion validity of the recently developed Dynamic Deprivation Index. Furthermore, although it is well known that Māori and Pacific Island populations have a higher incidence of problem gambling, our results imply that when controlling for socio-economic deprivation and the geographic location of EGMs the associations between ethnicity and GMP per capita are weak. From a policy perspective, this suggests the most effective way of limiting the harms of EGM gambling on these populations is to place tighter controls on the number of venues within their communities.     

Union Organizing and Membership Growth: Why Don’t They Organize?

This study analyzes U.S. union organizing activity and membership growth from 1990 to 2004, a period in which an overall pattern of union decline continued and in which organizing achieved renewed prominence as both a union policy and public policy issue. Models for organizing activity and membership growth were proposed and tested. Union decentralization and employer opposition were found to be key predictors of organizing activity differences among unions. These same factors, along with organizing activity, helped explain union differences in membership growth, as did a ??Sweeney era?? effect.     

Quantitative Risk Estimation for a Legionella pneumophila Infection Due to Whirlpool Use

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment was used to quantify the risk associated with the exposure to Legionella pneumophila in a whirlpool. Conceptually, air bubbles ascend to the surface, intercepting Legionella from the traversed water. At the surface the bubble bursts into dominantly noninhalable jet drops and inhalable film drops. Assuming that film drops carry half of the intercepted Legionella, a total of four (95% interval: 1–9) and 4.5×10⁴ (4.4×10⁴ – 4.7×10⁴) cfu/min were estimated to be aerosolized for concentrations of 1 and 1,000 legionellas per liter, respectively. Using a dose‐response model for guinea pigs to represent humans, infection risks for active whirlpool use with 100 cfu/L water for 15 minutes were 0.29 (～0.11–0.48) for susceptible males and 0.22 (～0.06–0.42) for susceptible females. A L. pneumophila concentration of ≥1,000 cfu/L water was estimated to nearly always cause an infection (mean: 0.95; 95% interval: 0.9–～1). Estimated infection risks were time‐dependent, ranging from 0.02 (0–0.11) for 1‐minute exposures to 0.93 (0.86–0.97) for 2‐hour exposures when the L. pneumophila concentration was 100 cfu/L water. Pool water in Dutch bathing establishments should contain <100 cfu Legionella/L water. This study suggests that stricter provisions might be required to assure adequate public health protection.     

From Structure to Agency to Process: The Evolution of Charles Tilly’s Theories of Social Action as Reflected in His Analyses of Contentious Politics

Charles Tilly’s social theories shifted over the course of his career from an early focus on quantitative and macro-sociological approaches to a later focus on relations and agency. His studies of state-making also shifted, from a focus on conflict and capitalism to explorations of democracy. This paper details these shifts and places them in the context of broader trends in comparative-historical and political sociology.