Modeling for insights,not numbers: the experiences of the energy modeling forum

It has often been contended that the primary goal of policy modeling should be the insights quantitative models can provide, not the precise-looking projections—i.e. numbers—they can produce for any given scenario. Students of the energy policy process, in particular, have noted that preoccupation with the plethora of detailed quantitative results produced by large-scale computer models has substantially impeded their influence on key policy decisions. The creation of the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) at Stanford University in 1976 represents one potential remedy for that situation. The EMF was formed to foster better communication between the builders and users of energy models in energy planning and policy analysis. The EMF operates through ad hoc working groups, composed of national and, more recently, international energy modeling and policy experts. These working groups conduct studies concentrating on a single energy topic. The diversity of backgrounds of the working group members ensures that the language of the EMF studies is English, not computer. Each working group identifies existing models relevant to the study's focus. A series of tests is then designed by the group to illuminate the models' basic structure and behavior. A comparison of results is published in a widely distributed report that identifies the models' strengths and weaknesses in the context of the study's topic. Seven EMF studies have been initiated to date: (1) Energy and the economy, (2) Coal in transition, (3) Electric load forecasting, (4) Aggregate elasticity of energy demand, (5) US oil and gas supply, (6) World oil and (7) Macroeconomic impacts of energy shocks. Each EMF study has broadened the understanding of the nature of the relevant policy issues and the models that have been, are, or could be used to address them. The present paper describes how each study's key insights were developed in the context of a simplified analytical framework that provided the proper perspective for understanding the model results.     

THE CORRELATES OF HEALTHY FAMILY FUNCTIONING: THE ROLE OF CONSENSUS AND CONFLICT IN THE PRACTICE OF FAMILY THERAPY

The present study explores the relative importance of individual, dyadic and triadic measures of intrafamily functioning in predicting family health. Using self-report data from 78 families, it was found that dyadic measures pertaining to marital quality and parent-child relationships were more powerful predictors than either individual measures of emotional maturity, anxiety, self-esteem or locus of control, or triadic measures of the families' hierarchical alignments. The study also found that while mothers' and fathers' assessments of intrafamily functioning were more important than the childrens' (except for the childrens' view of parent-child relationships), the parents differed in that marital quality was more important to the mothers' evaluations of the family unit while parent-child relationships were more important to the fathers'. Compositely, the findings suggest that family health is a complex multidimensional phenomenon, and that change in a particular dimension of family life may not necessarily be greeted with consensual validation or repudiation by all family members.     

Some joint distributions for conditional random walks

Joint distributions concerning maxima, minima, and their indices are determined for certain conditional random walks called Bernoulli excursion and Bernoulli meander. The distribution of the local time of these processes is treated by generating function technique. Limiting distributions are also given, providing some partial results for Brownian excursion and meander.     

Relations between Status and Power Structures: Toward a General Theory*

Contemporary work on the development of status and power structures is reviewed. It is shown that theorists have conceptualized the relationship between these structures in opposite ways. Some have held that the structures tend toward alignment. Specifically, they have held that persons tend to be equally high or low in both structures. Others have held that the structures tend toward non-alignment. Specifically, they have held that the range of persons statuses tends to be greater than the range of their power. An attempt is made to reconcile the different theories underlying these two conceptions by postulating that one conception is correct under certain conditions and that the other is correct under other conditions. The conditions specified involve an important but somewhat neglected aspect of the overall stratification structure, what is called the secondary stratification structure, and the importance persons assign to this structure.     

The dimensions of poverty

The nature of ‘poverty’ is examined in relation to a model of causes affecting the welfare of a community. It is suggested that one can operationally distinguish four major dimensions of poverty, namely economic, social, political and legal poverty; and that one might in addition be able to characterise three further aspects, namely psychological, ideological and conceptual poverty. It is proposed that at least the first four aspects should be distinguished and explicitly named, thereby specifically characterising these different dimensions of ‘poverty’; and that this would serve a useful purpose in clarifying the nature of the problems faced by the community considered.     

Gambling in young adolescents

A questionnaire was used to investigate gambling in British adolescents. Responses from fifty 13- to 14-year-olds were analyzed. Gambling was found to be very pervasive (90% of subjects reported at least some gambling activity). Males gambled more than females, both in absolute terms and as a proportion of income. Income was found to have some influence on gambling behavior, but the effects of intelligence and social class were nonsignificant. Slot machines were the commonest form of gambling in both sexes.The willing cooperation of the teacher and students concerned is gratefully acknowledged. This paper is based on a report submitted by the first author in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the BSc degree at the University of Exeter. Some of the data were presented to the conference of the British Psychological Society Developmental Section, held in Exeter in September 1986, and to the colloquium of the International Association for Research in Economic Psychology, held at Aarhus, Denmark, in September 1987.