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11.
BAYESIAN SUBSET SELECTION AND MODEL AVERAGING USING A CENTRED AND DISPERSED PRIOR FOR THE ERROR VARIANCE 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Edward Cripps Robert Kohn David Nott 《Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics》2006,48(2):237-252
This article proposes a new data‐based prior distribution for the error variance in a Gaussian linear regression model, when the model is used for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging. For a given subset of variables in the model, this prior has a mode that is an unbiased estimator of the error variance but is suitably dispersed to make it uninformative relative to the marginal likelihood. The advantage of this empirical Bayes prior for the error variance is that it is centred and dispersed sensibly and avoids the arbitrary specification of hyperparameters. The performance of the new prior is compared to that of a prior proposed previously in the literature using several simulated examples and two loss functions. For each example our paper also reports results for the model that orthogonalizes the predictor variables before performing subset selection. A real example is also investigated. The empirical results suggest that for both the simulated and real data, the performance of the estimators based on the prior proposed in our article compares favourably with that of a prior used previously in the literature. 相似文献
12.
Sarah Brown Karl Taylor 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)》2008,171(3):615-643
Summary. We explore the determinants of debt, financial assets and net worth at the household level by using survey data for Germany, Great Britain and the USA. To identify which households are potentially vulnerable to adverse changes in the economic environment, we also explore the determinants of a range of measures of financial pressure: the probability that a household has negative net worth; the debt-to-income ratio; mortgage income gearing; the saving-to-income ratio. Our empirical findings suggest that the poorest and the youngest households are the most vulnerable to adverse changes in their financial circumstances. 相似文献
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Rapid advances in sociological computing are changing virtually every aspect of scholarly sociological work. These changes
offer an opportunity for sociologists to improve the quality of their work and bring new insights and approaches to bear on
important sociological problems. Nevertheless, sociologists display a profound ambivalence toward computer work by other sociologists.
Left unchecked, this ambivalence threatens to turn sociological computing into an opportunity missed. Inadequate rewards,
lack of training, and a general failure to understand the importance of computing in sociology threaten to stifle the development
of quality soft-ware, push sociologists competent in computing into other fields, and jeopardize the quality of sociological
scholarship. This article documents these ambivalent tendencies and proposes reasonable steps the discipline should take to
assure that sociological computing does not become an opportunity missed. 相似文献
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Unemployment rates differ widely and persistently across counties. This article examines equilibrium forces related to this geographic disparity with a focus on California. We show that although seasonal variation in employment can account for some of the differences, it cannot explain the total variation. Factors such as educational attainment, age, and gender appear to be strongly related to unemployment differences. Individuals living in higher‐unemployment areas also have a lower propensity to migrate. Because migration is usually considered to be the main equilibrating force, this evidence helps further explain why unemployment rates across counties are persistently different. 相似文献
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Reed W. Larson B. Bradford Brown Jeylan T. Mortimer 《Journal of research on adolescence》2002,12(1):iii-viii
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Nonprofit organizations rely on the mission to attract resources and guide decision making. Increasingly, mission statements are recognized as a strong management tool that can motivate employees and keep them focused on the organization's purpose. This research investigated employee attitudes toward the mission in a youth and recreation service organization. In general, the employees expressed positive attitudes toward the organization's mission, and those attitudes were related to employee satisfaction and intentions to remain with the organization. However, dissatisfaction with pay tended to override employee's mission attachment as explanation of why they may leave the organization. The implication is that mission might be salient in attracting employees but less effective in retaining them. 相似文献
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This article places the development of tourism in Bakau, TheGambia, within the general context of social and economic changesin the town. It focuses on the activities of beachboys in Bakauwho assume the role of culture brokers, acting as mediatorsand innovators in the community. It then studies the ambivalentreaction of Bakau elders to the beachboys' activities. 相似文献