On the Assessment of Monte Carlo Error in Simulation-Based Statistical Analyses

Statistical experiments, more commonly referred to as Monte Carlo or simulation studies, are used to study the behavior of statistical methods and measures under controlled situations. Whereas recent computing and methodological advances have permitted increased efficiency in the simulation process, known as variance reduction, such experiments remain limited by their finite nature and hence are subject to uncertainty; when a simulation is run more than once, different results are obtained. However, virtually no emphasis has been placed on reporting the uncertainty, referred to here as Monte Carlo error, associated with simulation results in the published literature, or on justifying the number of replications used. These deserve broader consideration. Here we present a series of simple and practical methods for estimating Monte Carlo error as well as determining the number of replications required to achieve a desired level of accuracy. The issues and methods are demonstrated with two simple examples, one evaluating operating characteristics of the maximum likelihood estimator for the parameters in logistic regression and the other in the context of using the bootstrap to obtain 95% confidence intervals. The results suggest that in many settings, Monte Carlo error may be more substantial than traditionally thought.     

The Orthodox Church in revolutionary Cheliabinsk: reform,counter-reform,and popular revolution in 1917

In 1917 the Cheliabinsk Vicariate, like the Church in most areas in the Russian empire, declined to support the autocracy, welcomed the February Revolution, endorsed the Provisional Government, and envisioned a broad set of reforms that even included a greater role for the laity in Church governance. The key agent for reform in Cheliabinsk – as in other dioceses – was the Assembly of Clergy and Laity, the focus of this study. Although the Assembly did adopt a radical and ostensibly popular social and administrative program, the vicariate encountered growing lay disenchantment – because of its support for an unpopular war, because of a caveat deferring social reform, but also because of the Church’s reluctance to give parishioners full power over the parish. The intensifying crises of 1917 heightened expectations for reform, and the disintegration of authority in Cheliabinsk and within the Church itself widened the chasm between the Church and parishioners. In response, diocesan authorities supported conservative measures, which deferred reform, in an attempt to re-establish order, while parishioners – frustrated by the pace of reform and the Church’s wavering support of it – led a revolution against diocesan authority aimed at making the Church subservient to their own agendas.     

Malthus in the Bedroom: Birth Spacing as Birth Control in Pre-Transition England

We use duration models on a well-known historical data set of more than 15,000 families and 60,000 births in England for the period 1540–1850 to show that the sampled families adjusted the timing of their births in accordance with the economic conditions as well as their stock of dependent children. The effects were larger among the lower socioeconomic ranks. Our findings on the existence of parity-dependent as well as parity-independent birth spacing in England are consistent with the growing evidence that marital birth control was present in pre-transitional populations.     

Discrimination,Sleep, and Stress Reactivity: Pathways to African American-White Cardiometabolic Risk Inequities

This review provides a model explicating two related physiologic and behavioral pathways through which the chronic daily stress of the expectation and experience of discrimination exposure can shape life course cardiometabolic risk trajectories: sleep and stress reactivity. We argue that these two pathways work together jointly to shape African American-White disparities in cardiometabolic morbidities. The body’s ongoing anticipation of experiencing racism-related stressors disrupts sleep, a behavior highly responsive to stress reactivity, which is also elevated during stressful conditions. The constant feedback between sleep disruption and the body’s stress response can lead to higher allostatic load and disproportionate exposure to stress-related illness among African Americans earlier in their life course.     

From these roots: The role of historically Black colleges and universities in preparing the nation’s gerontologists for an aging society

ABSTRACT

The aging of the United States population is creating an increased need for social workers and other helping professionals with training in gerontology. Recent estimates indicate that less than 3% of MSW students are enrolled in an aging concentration, as compared to 19% enrolled in children/youth concentrations. In addition, the phenomenon of a diverse baby boomer generation joining the ranks of persons age 65 and older has created a plethora of scholarship and curriculum development aimed at readying the aging network for the unprecedented growth of older persons. Social work can make unique professional contributions to the field of gerontology and older persons. This study asserts, however, that social work is not adequately prepared to practice in an increasingly diverse aging society. The social work profession has articulated commitments to acknowledging and affirming how diversity and culture shape the human experience and to developing social workers who can competently engage in research-informed practice and practice-informed research. However, there remains a need in social work education for more widespread use of culturally relevant pedagogies that can help achieve these goals. Informed by both the Afrocentric and Black perspectives, this study presents a content analysis of the curricula infused at two historically Black universities. The nature and extent of the contributions of historically Black universities to social work education is the focus of this article. The scope of this investigation also includes the identification of prominent Black social work educators and discusses the implications of these perspectives for more culturally informed gerontology curricula that promote culturally competent gerontological social workers.     

“It’s a generosity loop”: Religious and spiritual motivations of volunteers who glean produce to reduce food insecurity

Food insecurity is a common social issue and households look to assistance from food pantries, which often have difficulty supplying fresh or nutritious food. A substantial amount of produce is left in the fields, which can be collected through gleaning. In a focus group with volunteer gleaners at a faith-based nonprofit organization that attempts to fill the gaps of food insecurity, the motivations, challenges, and benefits of volunteering were examined. Volunteering in gleaning generated a sense of collective purpose and community; it addressed deeply held religious and spiritual impulses; and it puts volunteers directly in contact with nature.     

The role of social work field education programmes in the transmission of developmental social work knowledge in Southern and East Africa

This paper reports on the findings of a study on the role of social work field education programmes in the transmission of developmental social work knowledge in Southern and East Africa. It highlights the challenges in locating developmental social work placements and the creativity shown by social work educators in addressing these challenges and improving learning opportunities for social work students. Both academics and students were found to be committed to developmental social work, within a willing practice environment hampered by knowledge, capacity and resource constraints. Social work education was found to be playing a transformative role through the teaching of a developmental social work curriculum and the creation of collaborative developmental social work learning experiences. Social work educators trained and supported agency supervisors in developmental social work, while students served as conduits, modelling developmental social work practice. What has yet to be determined in future research is the students’ perspective of this developmental educational environment.     

Personal reflection and experience of a Fulbright Scholar: teaching a mental health course in Vietnam’s changing culture

This paper documents the experience of developing and teaching a course on mental health for undergraduate social worker students during a semester in Vietnam. Social work is a profession at the early stages of development in Vietnam, requiring much curriculum development. There are over 40 universities with undergraduate social work education programs, but few of the faculty have had training or experience in practicing social work. The paper will summarize the main reasons for developing such a course given the current state of mental health need and services in a changing culture, as well as the current state of professional social work education and the newly established profession of social work. The author describes the contexts underlying the course—the status of social work and social work education in Vietnam, the context of mental health and mental illness in Vietnam, and curriculum adaptation to the cultural context. From this experience, the lessons learned about the role of cross-cultural critical thinking, cultural knowledge, and other strategies will be discussed about teaching a subject like mental health internationally.     

Evaluation of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Safer,Smarter Kids:</Emphasis> Child Sexual Abuse Prevention Curriculum for Kindergartners

This study assessed the effectiveness of the Safer, Smarter Kids kindergarten sexual abuse prevention curriculum in meeting its educational objectives of increasing children’s knowledge of safety risks and self-protection strategies. The study utilized a two-phase non-probability convenience sample of public school kindergarten students. The sample consisted of 1169 students in four school districts in Florida. Using an alpha level of .05, a paired-samples t test was calculated to compare the mean pretest scores to the mean posttest scores of the youth participants. The mean difference was significantly greater than zero (p-value ≤.001). The measurement instrument used to assess student gains functioned well in terms of reliability (α = .82). The effect size was large with a Cohen’s d effect size of 1.09. The results indicated that completion of the Safer, Smarter Kids curriculum was followed by a significant increase in students’ knowledge of key prevention concepts with a 77 % increase in scores post intervention.     

Understanding barriers to healthy behaviors in black college men

Objective: Due to the short life expectancy of black men, it is important to understand what impacts health behaviors in this group so that interventions and programs can be developed to improve their health behaviors which may help in increasing the life expectancy of black men. The purpose of this study was to understand what perceived barriers exist for black college men that prevent them from engaging in healthy behaviors. Participants and Methods: Thirty-five black male students at a southern Historically Black College and University participated in five focus groups and four interviews. A qualitative analysis was used to analyze data for similar themes and codes. Results: Perceived barriers to engaging in healthy behaviors appear to be influenced by image, food cost, and education. Cues to action for not engaging in healthy behaviors appear to be related to role models. Conclusions: Black college men are not adequately informed or educated about elements that can impact their health and how they can improve it. College administrators and researchers should develop interventions that include elements of increasing health knowledge and age-appropriate role models to improve health behavior change among this group.