Preelection Polls in Israel: Structural Constraints on Accuracy

This article examines the last two Israeli election campaignsof 1981 and 1984, and suggests that structural variables greatlyaffect the accuracy of reported preelection polls. Pollsters'quest for more detail and refinement driven by competition andmass media pressures for highly processed predictions is liableto result in less accurate reports. The kind of errors in polls'projections are situation-bound and greatly depend on the natureof the floating vote in the system. Interpollster accuracy,however, is mainly determined by pollster–sponsor dependencies.Pollsters working for political parties projected results morefavorable to their sponsors or less favorable to their sponsors'opponents. Moreover, the stronger the pollster–sponsorstructural dependencies, the greater the inaccuracy.     

Does a Reactor Need a Safety Backfit? Case Study on Communicating Decision and Risk Analysis Information to Managers

An approach to communicating decision and risk analysis findings to managers is illustrated in a real case context. This article consists essentially of a report prepared for senior managers of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to help them make a reactor safety decision. It illustrates the communication of decision analysis findings relating to technical risks, costs, and benefits in support of a major risk management decision: whether or not to require a safety backfit. Its focus is on the needs of decision makers, and it introduces some novel communication devices.     

Boards of directors in nonprofit organizations do they follow a life-cycle model?

In this study the authors used data from a survey of Canadian nonprofit organizations to empirically test hypotheses derived from models of nonprofit board “life cycles.” The authors suggest that while formal structural elements of board behavior change in the manner suggested by life-cycle models, the more enacted or behavioral aspects of nonprofit boards do not. The data further suggest caution in the use of life-cycle or age-dependent models to either explain or guide nonprofit board behavior.     

A Tale of Two Border Cities: Community Context,Ethnicity, and Homicide*

Objective. Using Poisson‐based negative binomial regression, we estimate the effect of neighborhood factors on homicides in two cities (San Antonio, Texas and San Diego, California) that have large Mexican‐origin populations. Methods. Three independent data sources (official homicide police reports, medical examiner records, and the U.S. Census) are used to construct the dependent homicide, and independent neighborhood, variables. Census tracts represent the unit of analysis, which serve as a proxy for neighborhoods. Given the spatial nature of the data, spatial estimation procedures were also modeled. Results. Spatial proximity to violence, neighborhood disadvantage, and affluence (in San Antonio) consistently buffered homicide across neighborhoods, even in heavily populated Latino neighborhoods. Conclusions. Spatial embeddedness and neighborhood characteristics are important for improving our understanding about ethnic neighborhood variations in levels of violence. Comparative approaches across places, namely, Latino‐dominated cities, can yield considerable insight into how the local context intersects race/ethnicity and violent crime.     

The Perceived Threat of Nuclear War, Salience, and Open Questions

The most serious problem facing the United States, accordingto many scientific and political leaders, is the threat of nuclearwar. Yet the standard survey question on the most importantproblem facing the country has often shown little public concurrencewith this assumption. Our article uses experimentation in nationalsamples to test whether this difference can be traced to limitationsin either the form or the wording of the standard question.The results indicate that there are some important systematicdifferences between open and closed versions of the question,and also differences that result from reference to the nationas distinct from the world, but neither type of difference accountsfor the infrequent mention of nuclear war on the standard question.Instead, other evidence indicates that most Americans believethat nuclear war is not going to happen at all, or that if itdoes happen it will be too far in the distant future to be ofpressing concern to them personally.     

Measuring Religious Identities in Surveys

The purpose of this article is to acquaint the broader publicopinion research audience with what has been a salient issuewithin the community of scholars of religion. We address thequestion of how best to conceptualize and measure religiousidentities in research on contemporary American society. Weconsider the main approaches to the measurement of religiousidentification with regard to their backgrounds, their assumptionsabout the importance of understanding religious identities inhistorically relevant terms, and the practical considerationsof survey measurement. Using data from the General Social Survey,particularly recent innovative efforts to obtain informationon subjective association with particular religious traditionsand/or movements (e.g., Pentecostal, fundamentalist, evangelical,mainline, or liberal Protestant), we compare the two main approaches:the traditional "denominational" approach, where religious identitiesare assumed to be associated with religious denominations, andthe subjective approach, where religious identities are assumedto be captured by a set of "nondenominational" reference categorieslinked to particular historical religious traditions or socialmovements. We conclude that both approaches have substantialpredictive validity, and the most effective strategy for futureresearch may be one that uses a combination of approaches, ratherthan one that relies entirely on a single method of measurement.     

Robustness of optimal decision rules where one of the team members is exceptionally qualified

This work investigates the robustness of optimal decision rules under a changing size of a decision group where the competence of one member is outstanding while the others possess an identical competence. More specifically, we focus on the expert rule, the almost expert rule and the tie-breaking chairperson rule. We first establish criteria for the optimality of each of these rules and then use it to investigate their robustness. Robustness is an important property of decision rules, especially when cost of adjustment to a new rule is high. Our findings are that the expert rule and the chairperson rule are robust while the almost expert rule is not.

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Diagnostic sequence of cocaine use disorder in relation to other mental health conditions among college students

Abstract

Objective: Cocaine use is increasing. Comorbidities and diagnostic sequencing are needed among college students to inform treatment of cocaine use disorder (CUD). Method: Using electronic medical records from the psychiatric clinic at the student health care center of a large, public university from 2005 to 2015, patients diagnosed with CUD were identified. Their top mental health conditions were identified and assessed to see whether the first diagnosis of these conditions was made (1) before, (2) at the same time as, or (3) after the first diagnosis of CUD. Results: Among the 50 CUD patients, their most common mental health comorbidities were alcohol use disorder, anxiety, depression, and cannabis use disorder. Anxiety and depression were likely to be diagnosed before CUD; alcohol and cannabis use disorders were likely to be diagnosed concurrently with CUD. Conclusion: Diagnostic sequencing can be used to inform screening, workup, and treatment for patients with CUD.     

Risk Policies in the United States: Definition and Characteristics Based on a Scoping Review of the Literature

The concept of “risk policy” is used with increasing frequency by decisionmakers, researchers, and the media. However, there is no precise, generally accepted definition of what is covered by policies in this area. Based on a scoping review of the literature published in key journals in the sector, we have identified the main characteristics of public risk policies drawn up and implemented in the United States. The sample comprised 21 articles published in six multidisciplinary journals between 2000 and 2010.