A stratified Warner''s randomized response model

This paper proposes a new stratified randomized response model based on Warner's (J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 60 (1965) 63) model that has an optimal allocation and large gain in precision. It also presents a drawback of the Hong et al. (Korean J. Appl. Statist. 7 (1994) 141) model under their proportional sampling assumption. It is shown that the proposed model is more efficient than the Hong et al. (Korean J. Appl. Statist. 7 (1994) 141) stratified randomized response model. Additionally, it is shown that the estimator based on the proposed method is more efficient than the Warner (J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 60 (1965) 63), the Mangat and Singh (Biometrika 77 (1990) 439) and the Mangat (J. Roy. Statist. SQC. Ser. B 56 (1) (1994) 93) estimators under the conditions presented in both the case of completely truthful reporting and that of not completely truthful reporting by the respondents.     

Patterns of delinquent careers: An assessment of three perspectives

The literature on careers of juvenile delinquents has been divided as to whether or not career specialization occurs. It has recently been proposed that the careers of delinquents may be viewed as arising from a Markov process with the observed arrest histories the result of a series of stochastic events. This approach has considerable appeal for it provides a wealth of information about criminal behavior, including predictions concerning the length and diversification of a delinquent career, the long-run distribution of various types of crimes, the extent of specialization in delinquency, and offense switching over the course of a delinquent career. In the present paper, the career patterns for a sample of highly delinquent, incarcerated juveniles are investigated. Although some support is found for specialization in delinquent careers, especially among robbery offenders, the findings generally support situational theories of crime.     

THE 1985-86 OIL PRICE COLLAPSE AND AFTERWARDS: WHAT DOES GAME THEORY ADD?

This paper focuses on the strategies used by OPEC to generate cartel profits over the period 1983-90. The evidence supports the hypothesis that OPEC adopted a swing producer strategy from 1983 to 1985. But when Saudi Arabia's profits fell below the level of Coumot profits in the summer of 1985, it abandoned the role of swing producer, driving prices to the Cournot level. Subsequently, Saudi Arabia appears to have adopted a tit-for-tat strategy designed to punish excessive cheating by other OPEC members. Based on these findings, the strengths and limitations of game theory are assessed.     

The expected likelihood of transitivity: A survey

May developed an algebraic choice model to describe pairwise comparisons from an empirical study. A probabilistic choice variation of May's model has also been developed. This study presents a survey of work that considers the expected likelihood that a subject using the probabilistic model will have transitive responses for pairwise choices on a set of three alternatives. Of particular interest is the impact that various factors that influence the probabilistic choice model have on the expected likelihood of transitivity. These factors include the degree of accuracy with which the subject perceives the attributes of the alternatives, the number of attributes of comparison, and the consistency with which alternatives are ranked across attributes.This research was supported through a fellowship from the Center for Advanced Study of the University of Delaware.     

SMALL ACTS OF CUNNING:

The purpose of this paper is to offer a genealogy of some of the disciplinary practices that constitute the everyday life of contemporary postmodern America. I argue that we are witnessing the emergence of a new economy of illegalities, and with it, an increased tension between exceptional punishment and generalized surveillance. This physics of power is constituted, in part, through a new political technology of the body that directs a gaze of accountability on an individuals "life-style" and is often premised on regulating, probing or, measuring the body's functions, processes, characteristics or movements. In this way, the body is being used as a central element in the localization of contemporary power. All this, I believe, is made possible by the historical moment of late twentieth-century capitalism.     

THE EFFECTIVENESS OF FAMILY THERAPIES FOR SELECTED BEHAVIORAL DISORDERS OF CHILDHOOD

This article reviews the scientific evidence for the effectiveness of family-based aproaches in the treatment of selected childhood behavioral disorders. Although limitations certainly exist, family interventions have consitently improved child and, in some cases, parent functioning in families with children presenting with conduct disorder (CD) and autism. Parents and other family members also directly benefit from child-focused interventions, gaining in knowledge, child management skills, and attitudinal improvements. Longh-term follow-ups indicate that CD and autistic children achieved lasting gains. Similarly, the research on attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) indicates that parent training improves child noncompliance and aggression yet does not consistently affect core symptoms of ADHD. There is no evidence that adding short-term family interventions improves ADHD child functioning beyond improvements from the use of psychostimulant medications. Some tentative support for family involvement in the treatment of childhood anxieties and fears is reviewed, but clear conclusions await future investigations. Finally, several methodological limitations and needed areas of research are discussed.