Aggregate Consumption and the Predictability of Asset Returns

This article analyzes the predictability of asset returns that are discounted using a consumption-based discount factor. The main objective of the analysis is to investigate how ancillary statistical assumptions affect the performance of this model. It is shown that, unlike tests of constant-discountrate models, tests of consumption-based models do not critically depend on statistical assumptions; for sufficiently high discount rates, there exist intuitively plausible rates of risk aversion for which appropriately discounted returns are unpredictable, regardless of the statistical specification. Test results are determined by serial correlation properties of prices and dividends and not by serial-correlation properties of returns.     

The origins of agriculture: Population growth during a period of declining health

The increase in the Neolithic human population following the development of agriculture has been assumed to result from improvements in health and nutrition. Recent research demonstrates that this assumption is incorrect. With the development of sedentism and the intensification of agriculture, there is an increase in infectious disease and nutritional deficiencies particularly affecting infants and children.Declining health probably increased mortality among infants, children and oldest adults. However, the productive and reproductive core would have been able to respond to this increase in mortality by reducing birth spacing. That is, agricultural populations increased in size, despite higher mortality, because intervals between births became shorter.     

The role of animation as a program development strategy

As an approach to community organization, animation involves the activation of people to take responsibility for their own affairs, with the aim of achieving their own, self-defined ends. The authors analyze the use of animation as a strategy of social program development undertaken by a nonprofit organization to initiate a clubhouse serving people with serious mental illness. Six animation strategies and their impact on the local community, sponsoring organization, and subsequent clubhouse program development are examined. The authors recognize the intensive resource requirements of animation, but they conclude that successful animation results in a program that enjoys high levels of community support, understanding, and legitimacy.     

The empowerment of marginals: strategic paradoxes

This article is about the disability movement in the Netherlands and its strategies for empowerment of disabled people. Only since the end of 2003 has the Netherlands enjoyed anti‐discrimination legislation for disabled people. But, how important actually is legislation for the empowerment of disabled people? To answer this question, we take a closer look at social movements and their involvement in empowerment and active citizenship. We criticise the disregard of differences and care in notions of active citizenship and propose instead the idea of a ‘varied society’ based on the notions of diverse and ‘careful citizenship’. One of our main arguments is that empowerment strategies necessary to create this kind of society are above all bottom‐up strategies. However, the highly organised disability movement in the Netherlands is confronted with strategic paradoxes that have ‘de‐powering’ consequences. Based on these paradoxes, five recommendations for the disability movement in the Netherlands are presented.     

“I'll Be There for You”: Teen Parents' Coparenting Relationships

Marriage promotion policy agendas have focused research attention on coparenting relationships, but little is known about coparenting among teen parents. Using qualitative interviews with 76 teen mothers and fathers supplemented with site observations at a school and clinic, the authors investigated coparenting relationships and those relationships' embeddedness in extended families and social institutions. They identified prevalent coparenting trajectories and analyzed individual‐, interaction‐, and institutional‐level influences on coparenting. Coparenting trajectories diverged depending on whether the couple stayed together and assumed traditionally gendered parenting roles. Participants perceived that coparenting relationships strongly shaped their current and future socioeconomic, emotional, and practical circumstances and their success at “being there” for their child. Extended families, institutions, and social programs often pushed teen parents apart, although many participants felt they needed a functional relationship with the other parent. Coparenting relationships, considered jointly with extended families and social institutions, are fundamental for understanding teen parenthood and shaping effective social policies.     

Mindfulness as a Coping Mechanism for Employment Uncertainty

Mindfulness‐based stress interventions are well suited to reduce the anxiety of clients living with employment uncertainty. With the advent of globalization, increased job flux, and at‐will employment policies, feelings of insecurity are becoming more prevalent, contributing to work‐related stress (D. L. Blustein, 2006), which in turn is associated with lowered job satisfaction, elevated turnover intentions, and increased cardiovascular risk (C. D. Spielberger, P. R. Vagg, & C. F. Wasala, 2003). Mindfulness, an intentional consciousness learned through meditation, can reduce psychological suffering by reducing the anticipation anxiety experienced by employed workers who face a high degree of employment uncertainty.