Lessons from stochastic small-area population projections: the case of Waikato subregions in New Zealand

Subnational population projections in New Zealand by means of the conventional deterministic cohort-component method have had a tendency to be conservative: underprojecting fast-growing populations and overprojecting slow-growing ones. In this paper we use a stochastic population projection method as an alternative. We generate population projections for five demographically distinct administrative areas within the Waikato region of New Zealand: Hamilton City, Franklin District, Thames-Coromandel District, Otorohanga District and South Waikato District. The results are compared to official subnational deterministic projections. The accuracy of subnational population projections in New Zealand is strongly affected by the instability of migration as a component of population change. Differently from the standard cohort-component method, in which net migration levels are projected, the key parameters of our method are age-gender-area specific probabilistic net migration rates. Generally, the identified and modelled uncertainty makes the traditional ‘mid-range’ scenario of subnational deterministic projections of limited use for policy analysis or planning beyond a relatively short projection horizon. We find that the projected range of rates of population growth is wider for smaller regions and/or regions more strongly affected by net migration. Directions for further development of the methodology are suggested.     

Stable growth in native‐dependent multistate population dynamics

Users of multistate life tables and projections have recognized that the Markovian assumptions underlying such models are unduly restrictive and should be relaxed whenever data permit. Efforts to include the influences of previous occupancies have included the incorporation of place‐of‐birth dependence. This paper addresses the stable growth properties of such generalized multistate models. It shows how place‐of‐birth‐specific stable growth measures can be calculated without projection simply by solving the characteristic equation. An example using Canadian data illustrates the argument.     

The impact of language and culture on perceived website usability

Online retailers offering their products across national and cultural borders are eager to enhance the usability of their websites to attract large numbers of visitors. The results of the present research show that the perceived usability increases when the website was originally conceived in the native language of the user. Thus, translation, even though of excellent quality, creates a cultural distance which impacts on the web users’ evaluation of the site. Conversely, where language is less important, such as in the evaluation of the quality of an offer, a consumer's native language has no impact on the buying decision.     

Multiple criteria decision analysis of treatment and land-filling technologies for waste incineration residues

In this paper, we present a real-world case realized in Switzerland on behalf of the federal agency in charge of the waste policy. The incineration of urban wastes generates hazardous residues that need specific treatment and/or land-filling technologies. The variety of local situations and appraisals led to the choice of very different solutions. Moreover, proponents were keen to propose new technologies. The purpose of this study was to provide the background for a national policy that would apply to all future projects.     

Public Day Care Centres,Company Day Care Centres,and Segregation Between Men and Women in the Labour Market: the Case of the Netherlands*

Abstract. What is needed to diminish segregation between men and women in the labour market is a program of affirmative action for the Netherlands as a whole. Specific measures aimed at the removal of barriers between occupations cannot be successful unless they are imbedded in such an overall program. A necessary part of such a plan are facilities that enable women and men to combine unpaid parental tasks and paid labour. In contrast with public day care centres, company day care centres do not fit into such a plan, because they even enlarge existing segregation. Company day care centres and other measures to facilitate parental care and paid labour are more often found in industries with a larger share of female workers. This relationship is found for both the Netherlands and the United States. It is concluded that it is in the interest of employers as well as women's emancipation to increase the number of public day care centres instead of the number of company day care centres.     

Automatic Sex-Liking and Sex-Failure Associations in Men With Sexual Dysfunction

Current models of sexual functioning imply an important role for both automatic and controlled appraisals. Accordingly, it can be hypothesized that erectile dysfunction may be due to the automatic activation of negative appraisals at the prospect of sexual intercourse. However, previous research showed that men with sexual dysfunction exhibited relatively strong automatic sex-positive instead of sex-negative associations. This study tested the robustness of this unexpected finding and, additionally, examined the hypothesis that perhaps more specific sex-failure versus sex-success associations are relevant in explaining sexual dysfunction and distress. Male urological patients (N = 70), varying in level of sexual functioning and distress, performed two Single-Target Implicit Association Tests (ST-IATs) to assess automatic associations of visual erotic stimuli with attributes representing affective valence (“liking”; positive versus negative) and sexual success versus sexual failure. Consistent with the earlier findings, the lower the scores on sexual functioning, the stronger the automatic sex-positive associations. This association was independent of explicit associations and most prominent in the younger age group. Automatic sex-positive and sex-failure associations showed independent relationships with sexual distress. The relationship between sexual distress and sex-failure associations is consistent with the view that automatic associations with failure may contribute to sexual distress.     

Optimal Cash Tender Offers*

This paper develops a contingent claims analysis, a simple decision model for determining the optimal price in a cash tender offer. The implied behavior of the optimal tender offer premium over the market price of the target common stock is also investigated. Those readers interested in applying the model may obtain an interactive computer program written in FORTRAN and implementable on a personal computer from the authors on request.     

Efficacy of a Self-Help Treatment for At-Risk and Pathological Gamblers

Available evidence suggests that self-help treatments may reduce problem gambling severity but inconsistencies of results across clinical trials leave the extent of their benefits unclear. Moreover, no self-help treatment has yet been validated within a French Canadian setting. The current study therefore assesses the efficacy of a French language self-help treatment including three motivational telephone interviews spread over an 11-week period and a cognitive-behavioral self-help workbook. At-risk and pathological gamblers were randomly assigned to the treatment group (n = 31) or the waiting list (n = 31). Relative to the waiting list, the treatment group showed a statistically significant reduction in the number of DSM-5 gambling disorder criteria met, gambling habits, and gambling consequences at Week 11. Perceived self-efficacy and life satisfaction also significantly improved after 11 weeks for the treatment group, but not for the waiting list group. At Week 11, 13% of participants had dropped out of the study. All significant changes reported for the treatment group were maintained throughout 1, 6 and 12-month follow-ups. Results support the efficacy of the self-help treatment to reduce problem gambling severity, gambling behaviour and to improve overall functioning among a sample of French Canadian problem gamblers over short, medium and long term. Findings from this study lend support to the appropriateness of self-help treatments for problem gamblers and help clarify inconsistencies found in the literature. The low dropout rate is discussed with respect to the advantages of the self-help format. Clinical and methodological implications of the results are put forth.