The End of the Demographic Transition: Relief or Concern?

Demographic transition theory might seem to imply that, after a period of exceptional population growth resulting from the time lag between mortality and fertility declines, every population, and then the whole world population will stabilize and, consequently, no more acute population problems will appear. Does the claim, recently gaining credibility, that the end of the transition is at hand actually imply a stage without major population problems? Nothing is less sure. First, it is just a claim, the realization of which still entails a period of dramatically rapid population growth in some countries, especially the poorest. But more tellingly, the end of the transition is also the end of the paradigm on which we have been relying to understand and anticipate demographic changes. Nobody knows what might ensue later: How long and low can fertility fall? How long and high can life expectancy increase? How far can population aging go? As many questions without answer and probably as many problems whose size we cannot even imagine lie ahead.     

Local Institutional Quality and Return Migration: Evidence from Viet Nam

This article examines the link between local institutional quality in the home country and locational choices of international return migrants. We scrutinize the locational choices of Vietnamese return migrants to the south central and the south regions of Viet Nam in 2014. Binary and multinomial regression models are fitted to identify the influence of migrants’ individual attributes and the characteristics of regional destinations within Viet Nam. Our analysis reveals that both individual‐specific and region‐specific variables are significantly related to Vietnamese return migrants’ choices when registering for permanent residency back in their home country. More remarkably, we provide compelling evidence of the positive role of institutional quality at the local level in these migration decisions. Moreover, the effect of institutional quality differs with the characteristics of migrants: regions with better institutional quality are more attractive both to younger return migrants and to those who returned from host countries with better institutional quality.     

On Multidimensional Approaches to Financial Literacy Measurement

Social Indicators Research - Financial literacy has become an important research topic in recent years. This paper uses data on financial literacy collected in 2012 by Israel’s Central Bureau...     

Bias for Vocalic Over Consonantal Information in 6‐Month‐Olds

Human languages rely on the ability to learn and produce an indefinite number of words by combining consonants and vowels in a lawful manner. The categorization of speech representations into consonants and vowels is evidenced by the tendency of adult speakers, attested in many languages, to use consonants and vowels for different tasks. Consonants are favored in lexical tasks, while vowels are favored to learn structural regularities. Recent results suggest that this specialization is already observable at 12 months of age in Italian participants. Here, we investigated the representations of younger infants. In a series of anticipatory looking experiments, we showed that Italian 6‐month‐olds rely more on vowels than on consonants when learning the predictions made by individual words (Experiment 1) and are better at generalizing a structure when it is implemented over vowels than when it is implemented over consonants (Experiments 2 and 3). Until 6 months of age, infants thus show a general vocalic bias, which contrasts with the specialization previously observed at 12 months. These results suggest the format of speech representations changes during the second semester of life.     

A classification updating procedure motivated by high-content screening data

The current paradigm for the identification of candidate drugs within the pharmaceutical industry typically involves the use of high-throughput screens. High-content screening (HCS) is the term given to the process of using an imaging platform to screen large numbers of compounds for some desirable biological activity. Classification methods have important applications in HCS experiments, where they are used to predict which compounds have the potential to be developed into new drugs. In this paper, a new classification method is proposed for batches of compounds where the rule is updated sequentially using information from the classification of previous batches. This methodology accounts for the possibility that the training data are not a representative sample of the test data and that the underlying group distributions may change as new compounds are analysed. This technique is illustrated on an example data set using linear discriminant analysis, k-nearest neighbour and random forest classifiers. Random forests are shown to be superior to the other classifiers and are further improved by the additional updating algorithm in terms of an increase in the number of true positives as well as a decrease in the number of false positives.     

Desegregation in Higher Education: An Examination of Traditionally Black and White Institutions*

Using the data collection techniques of historical analysis, secondary analysis of EEO-6 records, mailed questionnaires, and personal interviews, race relations among trustees, administrators, and faculty in the southeastern United States were examined during the late 1970s and early 1980s. The conclusion that blacks at traditionally white institutions (TWI) (1) had more tenuous job status, (2) experienced less job satisfaction, (3) experienced greater degrees of institutional alienation, and (4) more often stated a need for affirmative action programs than did their white colleagues at the same institution will surprise no one. Similar patterns and perceptions were found for whites at traditionally black institutions (TBI) where whites were in the “minority.” Although whites at TBIs remained members of the societal majority group as traditionally defined in the sociology of intergroup relations, their position and perceptions within specific TBIs were remarkably similar to the experience of black professionals at TWIs. Some implications for policy are drawn.     

FIRM HETEROGENEITY AND THE PATTERN OF R&D COLLABORATIONS

We consider an oligopoly setting in which firms form pairwise collaborative links in research and development with other firms. Each collaboration generates a value that depends on the identity of the firms that collaborate. First, we provide properties satisfied by pairwise equilibrium networks and efficient networks. Second, we use these properties in two types of situation: (1) there are two groups of firms, and the value of a collaboration is higher when firms belong to the same group; (2) some firms have more innovative capabilities than others. These two situations provide clear insights about how firms' heterogeneity affects both equilibrium and efficient networks. We also show that the most valuable collaborative links do not always appear in equilibrium, and a public policy that increases the value of the most valuable links may lead to a loss of social welfare. (JEL C70, L13, L20)