The macroeconomics of fertility in small open economies: A test of the Becker-Barro model for The Netherlands and New Zealand

Becker and Barro (1988) formulated a theoretical model which identified a range of macroeconomic variables which can temporarily or permanently affect fertility in small open economies. This article tests the Becker-Barro model with relevant data which covers most of the 20th century for two small open economies, namely The Netherlands and New Zealand. The results show that government subsidies for having children have a strong positive effect on fertility, while the provision of public pensions has a strong negative effect. The degree of intergenerational altruism appears to have been declining. Moreover, there is only weak support for the hypothesis that real interest rates positively influence fertility. Received: 2 March 1998/Accepted: 1 September 1999     

Model-based measurement of latent risk in time series with applications

Summary.  Risk is at the centre of many policy decisions in companies, governments and other institutions. The risk of road fatalities concerns local governments in planning countermeasures, the risk and severity of counterparty default concerns bank risk managers daily and the risk of infection has actuarial and epidemiological consequences. However, risk cannot be observed directly and it usually varies over time. We introduce a general multivariate time series model for the analysis of risk based on latent processes for the exposure to an event, the risk of that event occurring and the severity of the event. Linear state space methods can be used for the statistical treatment of the model. The new framework is illustrated for time series of insurance claims, credit card purchases and road safety. It is shown that the general methodology can be effectively used in the assessment of risk.     

An Individual Mixed‐Evaluation Method for Career Intervention

Economic issues linked to career counseling are a cause for concern to policy makers in developed countries because they expect career practitioners to provide evidence of the efficiency of career counseling interventions. The aim of this study was to test an individual evaluation method mixing time series (outcomes) and life narrative (processes). The method used 5 items related to 1 client's career decision self‐efficacy and studied the evolution of those items throughout the intervention of 1 career counselor (43 days). Changepoint analysis helped in identifying the changes that have to be taken into account for time series and which are contextualized in the client's verbatim analysis. This mixed method highlighted that the career counselor's intervention increased the client's career decision self‐efficacy. Practitioners could use the methodology proposed in this article to evaluate their interventions. They could also report their practice to clients, employers, and decision makers.     

Does the sense of the geographic proximity of a requester influence donation? Three evaluations in field studies

It has been reported that familiarity or incidental similarities with a stranger influenced an individual’s behavior. However, the effect of the sense of geographical proximity believing that someone comes from the same area that somebody has never been examined. Three field experiments examined this effect on donations to humanitarian organizations. In the first study, participants were asked by a confederate to donate food products to a humanitarian organization. In Study 2, participants were asked by confederates to donate money for children. In Study 3, donation boxes were displayed in bakeries with a message that invited customers to donate money for children. In all the studies, participants were led to believe that they would be helping people in need or people who live in their national or local geographic area. Results showed that donations were higher in the geographical proximity condition. This “neighborhood effect” was discussed.     

Social,Relational and Network Determinants of Unprotected Anal Sex and HIV Testing Among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Beirut,Lebanon

Objectives: We examined the social, relational and network determinants of condom use and HIV testing among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Beirut. Methods: Two-hundred thirteen men were recruited via respondent driven sampling and administered a survey. Results: Sixty-four percent reported unprotected anal intercourse (UAI), including 23% who had UAI with unknown HIV status partners (UAIU); 62% of participants had tested for HIV. In multivariate analysis, being in a relationship was associated with UAI and HIV testing; lower condom self-efficacy was associated with UAIU and HIV testing; gay discrimination was associated with UAIU; MSM disclosure was associated with UAI, UAIU and HIV testing; and network centralization was associated with HIV testing. Conclusions: Multi-level social factors influence sexual health in MSM.     

A Taxometric Analysis of Problem Gambling Data from a South African National Urban Sample

We investigate the question whether problem gambling (PG) in a recent South African sample, as measured by the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI), is dimensional or categorical. We use two taxometric procedures, Mean Above Minus Below A Cut (MAMBAC) and Maxim Covariance (MAXCOV), to investigate the taxonic structure of PG as constructed by the PGSI. Data are from the 2010 South African National Urban Prevalence Study of Gambling Behavior. A representative sample of the urban adult population in South Africa (N = 3,000). Responses are to the 9 item PGSI. MAMBAC provided positive but modest evidence that PG as measured by the PGSI was taxonic. MAXCOV pointed more strongly to the same conclusion. These analyses also provide evidence that a PGSI cutoff score of 10 rather than the standard 8 may be called for. PG as constructed by the PGSI may best be thought of as categorical, but further studies with more theory based measurements are needed to determine whether this holds in a wider range of samples and for other screens. A higher cutoff score may be called for on the PGSI when it is used for research purposes to avoid false positives.     

The interdependence between forms of mutuality and the development of theoretical interest in the classroom

The present Vygotskian community is divided by a common language, 1 argue. By closer inspection there appears to be 2 quotation communities. The reasons for this are many, but the main reason seems to be the different reception histories of Vygosky's work in Russia and in the U. S., respectively. Concurrently, on the continent there also exist 2 different quotation communities. In one community Vygotsky's work initially was introduced through his Russian disciples; in the other community through his American adherents. This article focuses on a Vygotsky‐inspired curriculum rationale that is not yet widely known abroad. It is authored by El ‘konin and Davydov. In Russian parlance this approach is called Developmental Education. By closer inspection it turns out that there is a remarkable family resemblance between this approach and the American approach known as the Schools‐for‐Thought movement. Here both approaches are juxtaposed and critically valued.     

Métier de sociologue,approche inductive et objet d'analyse. Brèves remarques à partir de Bourdieu

This article seeks to reveal the role played by the inductive approach in sociology. Grounded Theory assumes its full importance in formulating sociological explanations. However, the theory does pose a problem, in that the “method” is not based on clearly defined operations, which remain implicit. This article attempts to show that the object of analysis—what is being analyzed—makes perceptible the operations implicitly conceived by the analyst, based on Grounded Theory. With qualitative analysis software, such as Atlas.ti, it is possible to shed light on these operations. The article is illustrated by the theory of Pierre Bourdieu and the epistemological considerations he developed as a result of his qualitative inquiry, La Misère du monde. Cet article cherche à montrer le rôle que joue l'approche inductive en sociologie. La Grounded Theory revêt son importance pour formuler l'explication sociologique. Celle‐ci pose toutefois problème. En effet, la «méthode» ne repose pas sur des opérations clairement définies et celles‐ci restent implicites. Dans cet article, on cherche à montrer que l'objet d'analyse—ce sur quoi porte l'analyse—rend perceptibles les opérations que l'analyste conçoit implicitement en s'appuyant sur la Grounded Theory. Les logiciels d'analyse qualitative, comme Atlas.ti, permettent d'autre part de les mettre en évidence. L'article est illustré par la théorie de Pierre Bourdieu et les considérations épistémologiques qu'a développées cet auteur à la suite de son enquête qualitative sur la Misère du monde.     

Diverging Trends in Female Old‐Age Mortality: The United States and the Netherlands versus France and Japan

In the most advanced countries, child mortality and adult mortality under age 65 years have fallen so low that further improvement in life expectancy relies almost completely on the decline of mortality at older ages. This phenomenon is particularly pronounced among women, who are far ahead of men in survival rates. Thus, to project the future of life expectancy, this study focuses on trends in female life expectancy at ages 65 and older. Four countries are selected for this analysis: the United States, Netherlands, France, and Japan. It is particularly interesting to understand why American and Dutch trends in female old‐age mortality have been diverging from those in France and Japan for two decades. It is shown here that most of the divergence derives from the fact that decline in cardiovascular mortality is more and more offset by increases in other causes of death in the United States and the Netherlands, while the other two countries are more successful in reducing mortality from all causes at increasingly older ages. This latter phenomenon could represent a new stage of the health transition.