Internal Migration in Spain: Dealing with Multilateral Resistance and Nonlinearites

This article investigates the determinants of internal mobility of both foreigners and natives across Spanish provinces over the decade 2004‐14. Building on an extended gravity model, our econometric strategy controls for multilateral resistance to migration by including different fixed effects structures. Additionally, the article allows for some nonlinearities in the key economic determinants of migration, wages and unemployment. The main finding is that the impact of economic factors on internal migration is higher for foreigners than for natives; furthermore, the effect of these factors on internal migration is clearly nonlinear for the group of natives, while this only happens for foreigners when dyadic fixed effects of origin‐destination are considered. Finally, the article shows that the nature of the amenities with the greatest impact on internal movements differs between the two groups: foreigners look for social services and cultural amenities, whereas natives are more attracted by good climate conditions.     

The effect of accounting standards on Big Bath behavior

This paper investigates the influence of accounting standards on systematic earnings understatement. To isolate the effect of reporting regulations from those of other institutional drivers of earnings management, Holthausen (2003) proposes analyzing reporting practices in a country undergoing a transition in accounting standards. We respond to this call by analyzing earnings management practices of large German-listed companies before and after their transitions from German GAAP to IFRS. Specifically, we focus on Big Bath behavior following Chief Financial Officer turnovers between 1999 and 2006. Our findings provide evidence of the effect of accounting standards on the existence of this particular earnings understatement pattern. However, while we detect Big Bath behavior for our sample of German GAAP firms, we find no such indication for those firms reporting under IFRS. Controlling for alternative explanations such as self-selection bias does not change our findings. We conclude that accounting standards seem to have a considerable influence on earnings management behavior, independent of managers’ and auditors’ incentives.     

An Ecological Model for Quantitative Risk Assessment for Schistosomiasis: The Case of a Patchy Environment in the Coastal Tropical Area of Northeastern Brazil

We developed a stochastic model for quantitative risk assessment for the Schistosoma mansoni (SM) parasite, which causes an endemic disease of public concern. The model provides answers in a useful format for public health decisions, uses data and expert opinion, and can be applied to any landscape where the snail Biomphalaria glabrata is the main intermediate host (South and Central America, the Caribbean, and Africa). It incorporates several realistic and case‐specific features: stage‐structured parasite populations, periodic praziquantel (PZQ) drug treatment for humans, density dependence, extreme events (prolonged rainfall), site‐specific sanitation quality, environmental stochasticity, monthly rainfall variation, uncertainty in parameters, and spatial dynamics. We parameterize the model through a real‐world application in the district of Porto de Galinhas (PG), one of the main touristic destinations in Brazil, where previous studies identified four parasite populations within the metapopulation. The results provide a good approximation of the dynamics of the system and are in agreement with our field observations, i.e., the lack of basic infrastructure (sanitation level and health programs) makes PG a suitable habitat for the persistence and growth of a parasite metapopulation. We quantify the risk of SM metapopulation explosion and quasi‐extinction and the time to metapopulation explosion and quasi‐extinction. We evaluate the sensitivity of the results under varying scenarios of future periodic PZQ treatment (based on the Brazilian Ministry of Health's plan) and sanitation quality. We conclude that the plan might be useful to slow SM metapopulation growth but not to control it. Additional investments in better sanitation are necessary.     

More than Subversion: Four Strategies for the Dominated

This article asks what strategies are available to dominated actors in fields of cultural production. Using archival and biographical materials on Ottoman/Turkish women intellectuals, we show that they effectively used, depending on their social and cultural capital and their past practices, at least four strategies. Apart from the well-theorized strategy of subversion, they could also deploy acquiescence, collaboration, and defiance. These four strategies, we argue, constitute a two-dimensional space defined by loyalty vs. resistance on one hand and the overtness vs. covertness of loyalty or resistance on the other. While much of this space is best understood in terms of reciprocal social exchange, the assumptions of exchange break down in the case of overt resistance, showing that strategy goes beyond negotiation and that the understanding of power as always-already implicated with resistance has limits.     

Connecting Tenure Security with Durable Solutions to Internal Displacement: From Restitution of Property Rights to the Right to Adequate Housing

The end of displacement is a main goal of international peacebuilding strategies, with increasing financial and human resources committed to it. Nevertheless, protracted internal displacement remains unabated, necessitating a review of the responses provided thus far. Durable solutions to internal displacement require a safe, permanent and secure place to settle, which puts security of tenure at the centre of any sustainable option. This article emphasizes the limited understanding of the factors that contribute to secure tenure as one of the main flaws in a predominantly legal approach to the right to restitution and the right to adequate housing in responses to internal displacement. It calls for the design of contextualized and inclusive strategies to align the de jure, de facto and perception dimensions of tenure security to support the sustainable settlement of internally displaced persons as well as the construction of peace.     

Did Wars Make Nation‐States in the Balkans?: Nationalisms,Wars and States in the 19th and early 20th Century South East Europe

Nationalism and protracted warfare are often seen as the most important impediments to social advancement in the Balkans. In contrast to these popular perceptions I argue that for much of its history the Balkan region was characterised by limited inter‐state violence and by notable lack of nationalist ideologies. Furthermore by comparing the processes of state and nation formation and warfare in the South East Europe with those in the Western Europe the article aims to show that it is the weakness, not the strength, of nationalism and protracted warfare that historically have been the principal obstacles for social development. The general argument of the paper is developed in dialogue with Tilly's theory that ties state formation to proliferation of wars and Gellner's model that links the rise of nationalism to emergence of standardised educational systems and industrialisation. In an attempt to partially disprove Tilly and vindicate Gellner I argue that the experience of the Balkan region indicates that although wars can prove important catalysts of state formation they may not necessarily contribute to nation formation.     

The Political Economy of Moral Conflict: An Empirical Study of Learning and Law Enforcement Under Prohibition

The U.S. Prohibition experience shows a remarkable policy reversal. In only 14 years, a drastic shift in public opinion required two constitutional amendments. I develop and estimate a model of endogenous law enforcement, determined by beliefs about the Prohibition‐crime nexus and alcohol‐related moral views. In turn, the policy outcomes shape subsequent learning about Prohibition enforcement costs. I estimate the model through maximum likelihood on Prohibition Era city‐level data on police enforcement, crime, and alcohol‐related legislation. The model can account for the variation in public opinion changes, and the heterogeneous responses of law enforcement and violence across cities. Results show that a 15% increase in the homicide rate can be attributed to Prohibition enforcement. The subsequent learning‐driven adjustment of local law enforcement allowed for the alcohol market to rebound to 60% of its pre‐Prohibition size. I conclude with counterfactual exercises exploring the welfare implications of policy learning, prior beliefs, preference polarization, and alternative political environments. Results illustrate the importance of incorporating the endogenous nature of law enforcement into our understanding of policy failure and policy success.     

中国优秀学术论文急速外流的原因及应对策略

通过对2014年中国SCI和SSCI学术论文外流情况的统计,当前学术论文外流的严重情况被全面和具体地呈现出来。通过系统梳理学术论文外流的相关研究,一方面从国家对论文外流缺乏宏观引导、科研考核机制刺激优秀论文外流、我国缺乏具有国际影响力的期刊以及国内期刊运作机制与国际化水平尚待提升4个方面揭示学术论文外流的具体原因;另一方面从宏观层面提出加强国家引导、集中优势资源打造国际顶级期刊、调整科研绩效考评政策、深化期刊体制改革、设立国内科技论文评奖机制5个方面的应对措施。     

Calibration estimation in dual-frame surveys

Survey statisticians make use of auxiliary information to improve estimates. One important example is calibration estimation, which constructs new weights that match benchmark constraints on auxiliary variables while remaining “close” to the design weights. Multiple-frame surveys are increasingly used by statistical agencies and private organizations to reduce sampling costs and/or avoid frame undercoverage errors. Several ways of combining estimates derived from such frames have been proposed elsewhere; in this paper, we extend the calibration paradigm, previously used for single-frame surveys, to calculate the total value of a variable of interest in a dual-frame survey. Calibration is a general tool that allows to include auxiliary information from two frames. It also incorporates, as a special case, certain dual-frame estimators that have been proposed previously. The theoretical properties of our class of estimators are derived and discussed, and simulation studies conducted to compare the efficiency of the procedure, using different sets of auxiliary variables. Finally, the proposed methodology is applied to real data obtained from the Barometer of Culture of Andalusia survey.