Surname analysis for estimating local concentration of Hispanics and Asians

Surname analysis is a potentially useful technique for identifying members of particular racial, ethnic, or language communities within a population. We review the existing state of the art for identifying persons of Hispanic or Asian origin, based on surnames distinctive of each group. We describe the logic of surname analysis, profile several available surname dictionaries, and illustrate their applications in local redistricting. Results of our ongoing validation studies suggest promising future directions for improving accuracy and broadening applications.This article is based on a paper presented at the annual Population Association of America meetings at Cincinnati, 1 April 1993.     

Local polynomial estimation of Poisson intensities in the presence of reporting delays

Summary.  The system for monitoring suicides in Hong Kong has considerable delays in reporting as the cause of death needs to be determined by a coroner's investigation. However, timely estimates of suicide rates are desirable to assist in the formulation of public health policies. This motivated us to develop a non-parametric procedure to estimate the intensity function of a Poisson process in the presence of reporting delays. We give closed form estimators of the Poisson intensity and the delay distribution, conduct simulation studies to evaluate the method proposed and derive their asymptotic properties. The method proposed is applied to estimate the intensity of suicide in Hong Kong.     

盆景风格因子初探

盆景艺术风格是盆景艺术家的创作个性在作品中的外在表现 ,它对盆景艺术的发展起着很重要的作用 ,人们对盆景的感性认识直接来源于盆景的风格。大部分盆景方面的书和文章都会涉及到盆景艺术风格的问题 ,但是 ,迄今为止对盆景艺术风格的形成和发展进行过系统研究的人还不是很多。基于对艺术发展规律和中国各种艺术风格盆景发展历史的研究 ,该文详细论述了影响盆景艺术风格形成和发展的内在、外在因素及它们之间的关系 ,并对怎样给我国盆景艺术注入新的活力提出了一些建议 ,对我国盆景艺术的发展和创新起到一定的指导作用     

A Review of Kyoto Protocol Adoption in Russia: Joint Implementation in Focus

Russia’s role in ‘animation’ of the Kyoto Protocol was crucial. Its initial vacillation on ratification was predominantly due to political bargaining with the EU. Domestic economic rationales [i.e. impacts of emission trading and Joint Implementation (JI) projects] were important to a much lesser extent and environmental motives did not seem to play any role in the decision. Since the Protocol entered into force, there have been significant delays in complete establishment of policy implementation frameworks, which are necessary for Russia to start benefiting from JI and emission trading. Only recently, in 2007, have GHG inventories and a national registry been established and the responsibilities for implementation of the Protocol and JI among the government departments have been distributed only to a certain extent. Some constraints hindering JI projects, such as vague legislation, an unfavourable economic climate, lack of commitment to JI projects, corruption, xenophobia, state and agency ‘capture’ still remain.      

Job Insecurity and the Timing of Parenthood: A Comparison between Eastern and Western Germany

This article contributes to the ongoing debate on the economic determinants of fertility behavior by addressing the role of job insecurity in couples’ intentions concerning parenthood and its timing. It starts from the hypothesis that cultural values moderate individuals’ reactions to job insecurity and the way it is related to family formation. With a systematic thematic content analysis of a set of semi-structured interviews with childless men and women around the age of 30 in eastern and western Germany, we are able to show that there are substantial differences in the consequences of job insecurity on intentions to have a first child. In western Germany, a relatively secure job career is expected to precede family formation, and this sequence of transitions is rather rigid, whereas in eastern Germany job security and family formation are thought of and practiced as parallel investments. We suggest that the lack of convergence in family formation patterns between eastern and western Germany after the unification of the country in 1990 is partially related to different attitudes toward job insecurity in the two contexts.