Theory and techniques of demographic forecasting

This paper focuses on theories and techniques for forecasting fertility and mortality. Period and cohort analyses of fertility and mortality in Germany over the past century are first discussed. Alternative techniques for forecasting future trends in these variables in the Federal Republic of Germany are then outlined. The economic and social policy consequences of different mortality and fertility assumptions are also briefly noted.     

Child health,breast-feeding,and survival in Malaysia: a random-effects logit approach

This study examines the possibility that estimation of the effect of breast-feeding on infant survival is affected by selection bias, in that children who are healthier at birth may be more likely to be breast-fed. Data are from the 1976 Malaysian Family Life Survey. "Ordinary logit models for breast-feeding and survival are estimated, and the results suggest that selection is indeed present. For example, children of higher birth weight appear to be more likely to be breast-fed and likely to survive. In addition, weight at birth and the duration of breast-feeding appear to be linked." Using birth weight as an indicator for the child's health, the authors conclude that "the direct influence of breast-feeding on survival remains of overwhelming importance even after corrections for selection bias are made."     

Researching in the Victorian censuses: a note on a computerized,annotated bibliography of publications based substantially on the census enumerators' books

The authors describe a project, begun in 1981, to locate, list, and annotate all the published work based substantially on the census enumerators' books for nineteenth-century censuses for England and Wales. The results are currently available in a computerized file, enabling a variety of searches by topic, geographical area, and type of population. Information is provided on using the data and the computerized bibliography. The authors note that, subsequently, data for censuses of Scotland and Ireland have been added.     

International factors in the formation of refugee movements

The authors construct a theoretical framework for analyzing factors influencing international refugee movements. "On the basis of detailed case studies by the authors of the principal refugee flows generated in Asia, Africa, and Latin America from approximately 1960 to the present, it was found that international factors often intrude both directly and indirectly on the major types of social conflict that trigger refugee flows, and tend to exacerbate their effects. Refugees are also produced by conflicts that are manifestly international, but which are themselves often related to internal social conflict among the antagonists."     

Pivotal partings: Forced termination with a sexually abused boy

The termination phase of therapy is an integral part of the treatment process engendering its own unique set of dynamics. However, the potential eruption of new material dislodged by the trauma of the impending loss may in some cases require a reassessment of discharge goals and consequent alteration of treatment modality. The likelihood of new material surfacing at this critical juncture is perhaps highest among the caseloads of therapist trainees, wherein the termination date is forced by the time-limited nature of the learning contract. In the following article, supervisor and trainee detail the process of therapeutic shift from a dynamic to a crisis-oriented modality in the case of a young boy whose central trauma emerged during termination.     

Teaching international demography

"I describe a course on international demography in this paper. The course enables students to use demographic concepts to understand the demographics of various countries and regions. The course involves an introduction, examination of specific geographic regions, and a concluding overview. I also describe several student projects and review available course materials."     

Contributors to disruption and dissolution of older-child adoptions

According to recent evidence, adoptive placements that do not work out are increasingly common. This article reviews research on rates of, and contributors to, adoption and "foster-adoption" disruptions and dissolutions. Implications for practice are included.     

Computer support of placement planning: the use of expert systems in child welfare

Computers have become commonplace in nearly every setting, from home to office. In addition to their usefulness for managerial tasks, they have the potential to aid the primary decision-making tasks of professional social service workers. The benefits and background of such "expert systems" are explored, and the structure of one experimental consulting program for child welfare workers, PLACECON, is presented.     

Picking the Winners: Politician vs. Voter Predictions of Two Controversial Ballot Measures

Abstract Both politicians and voters were asked to predict outcomesof two Oregon ballot measures in 1982. As expected, politicians'predictions always were closer to the mark than voters' were.Further, voters showed stronger signs of wishful thinking (the"Looking-Glass effect") in their predictions than did politicians.Using published preelection polls apparently improved politicians'accuracy in 1982, as well as voters' accuracy in a separate1984 survey. No other sources of data improved predictive accuracy.Findings have implications for theories of representative governmentand are consistent with a new theory of public opinion.