Multiparameter evidence synthesis in epidemiology and medical decision-making: current approaches

Summary.  Alongside the development of meta-analysis as a tool for summarizing research literature, there is renewed interest in broader forms of quantitative synthesis that are aimed at combining evidence from different study designs or evidence on multiple parameters. These have been proposed under various headings: the confidence profile method, cross-design synthesis, hierarchical models and generalized evidence synthesis. Models that are used in health technology assessment are also referred to as representing a synthesis of evidence in a mathematical structure. Here we review alternative approaches to statistical evidence synthesis, and their implications for epidemiology and medical decision-making. The methods include hierarchical models, models informed by evidence on different functions of several parameters and models incorporating both of these features. The need to check for consistency of evidence when using these powerful methods is emphasized. We develop a rationale for evidence synthesis that is based on Bayesian decision modelling and expected value of information theory, which stresses not only the need for a lack of bias in estimates of treatment effects but also a lack of bias in assessments of uncertainty. The increasing reliance of governmental bodies like the UK National Institute for Clinical Excellence on complex evidence synthesis in decision modelling is discussed.     

美学方法论和艺术本质观--从东、西方古典美学看艺术的审美本质

本文从美学方法论的角度 ,以对东西方古典美学艺术本质观的论述为基础 ,结合当前的文艺实践 ,对艺术本质给予了现时代的规定。本文认为 ,西方古典美学和艺术思想的基本特征 ,是以纯哲学和社会学的方法研究艺术 ,把艺术规定为是一种特殊的认识活动 ,将摹拟、再现、认识看作是艺术的本质特征 ;而中国古典美学则主要是以伦理学与哲学的辩证统一、艺术哲学和艺术心理学相统一的方法观察和研究艺术 ,把情感看作艺术的特质 ,将抒情、写意规定为是艺术的基本特征。东西方古典美学各自在艺术本质问题上的合理性和片面性 ,以及当今东西方艺术发展的趋势 ,说明对艺术本质的思考和探求 ,既不能单纯执着于表现主义 ,也不能固守于理智主义 ,而是应该扬弃其各自的片面性 ,对东西方古典美学的艺术本质观 ,在现时代的规定下进行辩证的综合     

人均耕地资源对农业集约经营的影响

从农业生产的历史发展趋势、定性和实证等 3个方面分析 ,认为人均耕地资源是影响农业集约经营的重要因素 ,人均耕地资源的减少在一定条件下将促进农业集约经营水平的提高。     

常规压井确定循环排量的方法

本文通过对压井循环过程的分析，建立了常规压井循环应满足的基本关系，并通过对基本关系的分析，提出了实际压井循环排量应取压井循环允许的最大排量，并给出了求取实际压井循环排量的方法和实例，最后对循环排气时的环空安全问题提出了考查办法。     

Studying the Effects of the Audience on Verbal Behavior

The Analysis of Verbal Behavior -     

Gender and the 'New Paradigm' of Health

This article provides a critical review of literature on the relationship between gender and the 'new paradigm' of health. An overview of the feminist critique of health is given, from the Women's Health Movement of the late 1960s and early feminist debates about medicalisation, to more recent discussions about structural inequalities between men and women, eating disorders, and AIDS. I then go on to explore the feminist response to the so-called 'new paradigm' of health (an approach that emphasises health promotion, individual responsibility for health, and body-monitoring). Arguments that health promotion initiatives target women and confirm their position as principal guardians of health within the family are considered, as well as literature on the breast cancer awareness campaign. I then explore the growing body of literature on masculinity and health, and its account of the relationship between gender and current ideas about healthiness. Finally, I offer up some suggestions for the direction a new feminist critique of health might take.     

Risk Compensation or Risk Reduction? Seatbelts,State Laws,and Traffic Fatalities*

Objective. The risk compensation hypothesis suggests that drivers enjoying greater safety will drive more recklessly and thereby impose greater risks on nonoccupants. We provide a test of the risk compensation hypothesis in the context of state seatbelt laws and belt use rates. Methods. Fixed‐effects models with policy and demographic variables are estimated using annual state data from 1985 to 2002 to test the effect of seatbelt laws and seatbelt use rates on logged fatality rates for occupants, pedestrians, motorcyclists, and all nonoccupants in separate models. Results. Contrary to the risk compensation hypothesis, the results indicate that both occupants and nonoccupants enjoy greater safety due to state mandatory use laws and increased safety belt use rates. Conclusion. Overall, seatbelt laws and the higher belt use these laws induce do not increase nonoccupant risk exposure. If anything, these laws and the accompanying increase in belt use result in safer driving behavior.