Providing Spatial Data for Secondary Analysis: Issues and Current Practices Relating to Confidentiality

Spatially explicit data pose a series of opportunities and challenges for all the actors involved in providing data for long-term preservation and secondary analysis—the data producer, the data archive, and the data user. We report on opportunities and challenges for each of the three players, and then turn to a summary of current thinking about how best to prepare, archive, disseminate, and make use of social science data that have spatially explicit identification. The core issue that runs through the paper is the risk of the disclosure of the identity of respondents. If we know where they live, where they work, or where they own property, it is possible to find out who they are. Those involved in collecting, archiving, and using data need to be aware of the risks of disclosure and become familiar with best practices to avoid disclosures that will be harmful to respondents.

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE PREDICTIVE ABILITY OF ADAPTIVE FORECASTING,RE-ESTIMATION,AND RE-IDENTIFICATION USING BOX-JENKINS TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS ON QUARTERLY EARNINGS DATA

This paper assesses the predictive ability of the Box-Jenkins methodology when utilized in an on-going setting. Three procedures are utilized to update the original forecasts generated from the Box-Jenkins models: adaptive forecasting, re-estimation, and re-identification. The results indicate that constant monitoring of the structure and parameters of the time-series models are necessary through time. It appears that adaptive forecasting techniques are insufficient to update BJ time-series models when used in conjunction with quarterly earnings data. Re-estimation is recommended as each new observation becomes available. Re-identification procedures are recommended on a less frequent basis.     

'I made some mistakes . . . but I love them dearly' the views of parents of children in informal kinship care

In-depth semi-structured interviews with 30 parents of children living with relatives in informal kinship care arrangements revealed the parents' views of the reasons for the informal kinship care arrangements, quality of their relationships with the children and their caregivers, their current and future roles in their children's lives, feelings experienced when with and away from the children, positive and negative aspects of kinship care, future goals and dreams for their children, and their assessments of their own strengths and challenges. Results of these interviews suggest several implications for social work practice and research.     

Policy relevant heterogeneity in the value of statistical life: New evidence from panel data quantile regressions

We examine differences in the value of statistical life (VSL) across potential wage levels in panel data using quantile regressions with intercept heterogeneity. Latent heterogeneity is econometrically important and affects the estimated VSL. Our findings indicate that a reasonable average cost per expected life saved cut-off for health and safety regulations is 7 million to7 million to 8 million per life saved, but the VSL varies considerably across the labor force. Our results reconcile the previous discrepancies between hedonic VSL estimates and the values implied by theories linked to the coefficient of relative risk aversion. Because the VSL varies elastically with income, regulatory agencies should regularly update the VSL used in benefit assessments, increasing the VSL proportionally with changes in income over time.     

Bayesian sample-size determination for one and two Poisson rate parameters with applications to quality control

We formulate Bayesian approaches to the problems of determining the required sample size for Bayesian interval estimators of a predetermined length for a single Poisson rate, for the difference between two Poisson rates, and for the ratio of two Poisson rates. We demonstrate the efficacy of our Bayesian-based sample-size determination method with two real-data quality-control examples and compare the results to frequentist sample-size determination methods.     

Bootstrap tests: how many bootstraps?

In practice, bootstrap tests must use a finite number of bootstrap samples. This means that the outcome of the test will depend on the sequence of random numbers used to generate the bootstrap samples, and it necessarily results in some loss of power. We examine the extent of this power loss and propose a simple pretest procedure for choosing the number of bootstrap samples so as to minimize experimental randomness. Simulation experiments suggest that this procedure will work very well in practice.     

世界新秩序和美国对华新政策

本文论述美国１９９７年后对华新政策。文章综述９０年代起美国历届政府的对华的检讨,到１９９７年克林顿政府采取对华新政策,主要是稳定亚洲、中国大陆、台湾,以确保美国在亚洲战略地位和经济利益     

R×C ecological inference: bounds, correlations, flexibility and transparency of assumptions

Summary.  Despite its potential pitfalls, ecological inference is an unavoidable part of some quantitative settings, including US voting rights litigation. In such applications, the analyst will typically encounter two-way tables with more than two rows and columns. Although several ecological inference methods are currently available for 2×2 tables, there are fewer options for analysing general R × C tables, and virtually none that model counts as opposed to fractions. We propose a count R × C method that respects the bounds deterministically, that allows for complex relationships between internal cell quantities, that is easily extensible and that results from transparent assumptions. We study the method via simulation, and then apply it to an example that is drawn from the state of Texas relevant to recent redistricting litigation there.