DISSECTING THE MONTY HALL ANOMALY

We assess competing explanations of irrational behavior in the Monty Hall problem by creating new variants of the problem. Some variants employ a feature that automates the merging of probabilities, thus rendering transparent the probabilistic advantage of the rational choice. That feature also enables systematic variation in informational asymmetry, and in ordering of actions. Data from 77 subjects, each of whom makes 30 binary decisions, indicate that automated merging raises the fraction of rational choices from around 40% to over 80%. Other features examined have much less impact, indicating the importance of a Bayesian updating failure. (JEL C91, D02, D81, D83)     

FOOLING MYSELF OR FOOLING OBSERVERS? AVOIDING SOCIAL PRESSURES BY MANIPULATING PERCEPTIONS OF DESERVINGNESS OF OTHERS

We present a novel experiment demonstrating strategies selfish individuals utilize to avoid social pressure to be altruistic. Subjects participate in a trust game, after which they have an opportunity to state their beliefs about their opponent's actions. Subsequently, subjects participate in a task designed to “reveal” their true beliefs. Subjects who initially made selfish choices falsely state their beliefs about their opponent's kindness. Their “revealed” beliefs were significantly more accurate, which exposed subjects' knowledge that their selfishness was unjustifiable by their opponent's behavior. The initial false statements complied with social norms, suggesting subjects' attempts to project a more favorable social image. (JEL C9, D03, D83)     

Narratives of exile twenty years on: long-term impacts of Indonesia’s 1998 violence on transnational Chinese-Indonesian women

ABSTRACT

In response to Indonesia’s 1998 riots, which included mass rape of Chinese-Indonesian women, many Chinese-Indonesian families sent their daughters out of country to try and ensure their safety. Drawing on interviews with Chinese-Indonesian women currently living in Singapore and Australia, this article considers the long-term effects on transnational families of this departure. In contrast to current views of Chinese-Indonesians as an affluent diaspora, we show Chinese-Indonesian women’s experience to be that of exile, living outside Indonesia with little possibility of permanent return. We illuminate the subtle and enduring effects of political violence on women’s marital, reproductive, and childrearing practices. Interviews reveal fragmented identities and contingent household formations which enabled family resilience for some but created long-term fissures for the majority. We argue for more critical attention to how gender mutually constitutes experiences of exile, and the long-term impacts of political violence on reproduction and family relations for Chinese-Indonesian women.     

Anti-Afropolitan ethics and the performative politics of online scambaiting

ABSTRACT

Online scambaiting problematises the identity of the 419 scammer whose virtual labours connect significantly to the digital dimensions of Afropolitanism. When examined through the photographic practices demanded of 419 scammers in several Internet communities, scambaiting, a form of Internet vigilantism that is targeted at online scammers to avert scam, produces epistemic violence which evacuates the black male body of human dignity. Although scambaiting is potentially an ethical project, it embeds a system of oppression that generates Afropolitan masculinities, caricatured performances of the bodies of 419 scammers exhibited online as objects of shame. As a philosophical and aesthetic response to translocality and mobility, Afropolitanism stresses the cultural experiences and agency of ordinary Africans who assert a global sense of awareness. As both the Afropolitan subject and the 419 scammer are entangled in the assertion of agency, the globalism of both is shown to converge at the intersection of the digital. Building on Lisa Nakamura's essay on dogshaming, I argue that the sexual exploitation of black bodies on scambaiting websites gestures at technology's complicity in interpellating digital subjects and circulating social injustices. Unlike Nakamura, I foreground the performative aspects of scambaiting and connect these to Afropolitanism's intrinsic digitality.     

FORECASTING WITH SOCIAL MEDIA: EVIDENCE FROM TWEETS ON SOCCER MATCHES

Social media is now used as a forecasting tool by a variety of firms and agencies. But how useful are such data in forecasting outcomes? Can social media add any information to that produced by a prediction/betting market? We source 13.8 million posts from Twitter, and combine them with contemporaneous Betfair betting prices, to forecast the outcomes of English Premier League soccer matches as they unfold. Using a microblogging dictionary to analyze the content of Tweets, we find that the aggregate tone of Tweets contains significant information not in betting prices, particularly in the immediate aftermath of goals and red cards. (JEL G14, G17)     

In search of innovation: A national qualitative analysis of child welfare recruitment and retention efforts

This national qualitative study explores recruitment and retention strategies within state child welfare agencies and the perceived effectiveness of these strategies. The study includes a national review of 50 state child welfare websites, and qualitative interviews with 18 individuals in 13 states. The findings highlight agencies' identification and investment of similar types of recruitment and retention efforts; yet agencies still grapple with elevated turnover rates despite continued efforts. This article comprehensively explored national utilized and underutilized strategies that have been employed to help alleviate child welfare recruitment and retention challenges. Further, mechanisms for overcoming and promoting innovation to understand the effectiveness of child welfare recruitment and retention strategies are addressed.     

Library Relocation & Collection Shifts

Abstract

For authors, publishers, and researchers, the information roadmap charts and utilizes evolving technology. “Infomediary” is a new name for an old role, describing participation in both traditional and emerging ways to deliver information and publications. This article briefly defines the role of the infomediary and the types of services provided by companies such as Ingenta, ISI (Institute for Scientific Information), and Gale. The best infomediaries will provide rational order to the growing and changing base aggregation of published material as it moves from researcher to author to publisher to library and back to researcher, particularly as that material evolves from print to electronic form.