EVALUATING CHANGES IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF CAPITAL WEALTH

A small-scale general equilibrium model in which the distribution of capital wealth is a key parameter is employed to examine the potential economic consequences of greater capital wealth equality. Every performance indicator examined – aggregate income, consumption equality, social welfare in the sum-of-utilities sense, and aggregate saving –is improved by greater capital wealth equality. However, the bottom-line social welfare gain, relative to the present high-inequality situation – even from the maximum achievable level of complete equality in capital wealth distribution – would be numerically rather modest.     

Lumpers and Splitters: The Public Opinion Information that Politicians Collect and Use

Are the decisions of American policymakers informed by generaltrends in the public’s ideology or by the public’spolicy-specific preferences? In this article we discuss twoexplanations for the types of public opinion information thatpoliticians collect and use. Using a unique data set of privatepolls from the White House of Richard Nixon, we find that whenopinion data on specific policies were available, the presidentrelied on them and not on general ideology data. On less importantissues, however, we find that the president often chose notto collect policy-specific data and instead relied on generalideology data. The differential collection and use of informationby policymakers reflect varying strategic calculations. Theyalso have profound implications for representative democracyand the demands placed on citizens and governors.     

Influence of behavioural tactics on recruitment and reproductive trajectory in the kittiwake

Many studies have provided evidence that, in birds, inexperienced breeders have a lower probability of breeding successfully. This is often explained by lack of skills and knowledge, and sometimes late laying dates in the first breeding attempt. There is growing evidence that in many species with deferred reproduction, some prebreeders attend breeding places, acquire territories and form pairs. Several behavioural tactics assumed to be associated with territory acquisition have been described in different species. These tactics may influence the probability of recruiting in the breeding segment of the population, age of first breeding, and reproductive success in the first breeding attempt. Here we addressed the influence of behaviour ('squatting') during the prebreeding period on demographic parameters (survival and recruitment probability) in a long-lived colonial seabird species: the kittiwake. We also investigated the influence of behaviour on reproductive trajectory. Squatters have a higher survival and recruitment probability, and a higher probability of breeding successfully in the first breeding attempt in all age-classes where this category is represented. The influence of behaviour is mainly expressed in the first reproduction. However, there is a relationship between breeding success in the first occasion and subsequent occasions. The influence of breeding success in the first breeding attempt on the rest of the trajectory may indirectly reflect the influence of behaviour on breeding success in the first occasion. The shape of the reproductive trajectory is influenced by behaviour and age of first breeding. There is substantial individual variation from the mean reproductive trajectory, which is accounted for by heterogeneity in performance among individuals in the first attempt, but there is no evidence of individual heterogeneity in the rate of change over time in performance in subsequent breeding occasions     

A sea change on the island continent: frameworks for risk assessment,prevention and intervention in child health in Australia

This article overviews prevention and early intervention approaches focusing specifically on their relevance to the health of children and young people in Australia. Australian public health has a sound track record although concealed within the aggregate profile are a number of sub-populations with poorer health indicators. Recognition of this has increased efforts to improve the health of children and young people especially in exploring the impact of social environments within the communities where children are raised. This paper examines emerging research in this area drawing out key lessons and learning from Australian experience in the field of early intervention and prevention in community settings.     

A MODEL OF "FAMILY FAIRNESS" AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR DEBT NEUTRALITY

Evidence suggests that a signcant proportion, though by no means all, of bequests is equally divided among the beneficiaries. This is inconsistent with standard models of bequests, which predict that equal division should occur only by chance. This paper proposes a modified model incorporating "family fairness" as well as utilitarianism as an influence on behavior. Various implications for debt neutrality are analyzed.     

Picking the Winners: Politician vs. Voter Predictions of Two Controversial Ballot Measures

Abstract Both politicians and voters were asked to predict outcomesof two Oregon ballot measures in 1982. As expected, politicians'predictions always were closer to the mark than voters' were.Further, voters showed stronger signs of wishful thinking (the"Looking-Glass effect") in their predictions than did politicians.Using published preelection polls apparently improved politicians'accuracy in 1982, as well as voters' accuracy in a separate1984 survey. No other sources of data improved predictive accuracy.Findings have implications for theories of representative governmentand are consistent with a new theory of public opinion.