Teaching international demography

"I describe a course on international demography in this paper. The course enables students to use demographic concepts to understand the demographics of various countries and regions. The course involves an introduction, examination of specific geographic regions, and a concluding overview. I also describe several student projects and review available course materials."     

Contributors to disruption and dissolution of older-child adoptions

According to recent evidence, adoptive placements that do not work out are increasingly common. This article reviews research on rates of, and contributors to, adoption and "foster-adoption" disruptions and dissolutions. Implications for practice are included.     

Computer support of placement planning: the use of expert systems in child welfare

Computers have become commonplace in nearly every setting, from home to office. In addition to their usefulness for managerial tasks, they have the potential to aid the primary decision-making tasks of professional social service workers. The benefits and background of such "expert systems" are explored, and the structure of one experimental consulting program for child welfare workers, PLACECON, is presented.     

Picking the Winners: Politician vs. Voter Predictions of Two Controversial Ballot Measures

Abstract Both politicians and voters were asked to predict outcomesof two Oregon ballot measures in 1982. As expected, politicians'predictions always were closer to the mark than voters' were.Further, voters showed stronger signs of wishful thinking (the"Looking-Glass effect") in their predictions than did politicians.Using published preelection polls apparently improved politicians'accuracy in 1982, as well as voters' accuracy in a separate1984 survey. No other sources of data improved predictive accuracy.Findings have implications for theories of representative governmentand are consistent with a new theory of public opinion.     

Basic humanitarian principles applicable to non-nationals

This article examines the general status in international law of certain fundamental human rights to determine the minimum "no derogation" standards, and then surveys a number of formal agreements between stages governing migration matters, while examining some of the standard-setting work undertaken by the International Labor Organization (ILO) and other institutions. Article 13 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, proclaims the right of everyone to leave any country, including his or her own. The anti-discrimination provision is widely drawn and includes national or social origin, birth, or other status. Non-discrimination is frequently the core issue in migration matters; it offers the basis for a principles approach to questions involving non-nationals and their methodological analysis, as well as a standard for the progressive elaboration of institutions and practices. As a general rule, ILO conventions give particular importance to the principle of choice of methods by states for the implementation of standards, as well as to the principle of progressive implementation. Non-discrimination implies equality of opportunity in the work field, inremuneration, job opportunity, trade union rights and benefits, social security, taxation, medical treatment, and accommodation; basic legal guarantees are also matters of concern to migrant workers, including termination of employment, non-renewal of work permits, and expulsion. The generality of human rights is due not because the individual is or is not a member of a partucular group, and claims to such rights are not determinable according to membership, but according to the character of the right in question. The individualized aspect of fundamental human rights requires a case-by-case consideration of claims, and the recognition that to all persons now certain special duties are owed.     

Migration and development in the Caribbean: relating policies and people

Throughout the 20th century, the US has feared that political instability in the Caribbean area could be exploited by adversaries; therefore, the US and the nations of the Caribbean share a compelling interest in the region's development. The dramatic increase in legal and illegal immigration to the US from the Caribbean in the last 2 decades has offered an additional human reason for US interest in the region. This migration has also created a new source of dependence and vulnerability for the region. Curtailment of migration would undoubtedly affect the region, and if the effect were social and political instability, then the US would also share those consequences. The 1984 Conference on Migration and Development in the Caribbean held discussions to 1) enhance the benefits of migration to Caribbean development, 2) identify development strategies, policies, and projects that would reduce pressures that have accelerated the rate of international migration, making it less manageable and more costly, and 3) identify ways to reduce dependence on migration by expanding employment and assisting economies in the region to become more self-reliant. The attitudes of both US and Caribbean participants seemed to reflect a considerable degree of ambivalence on the migration issue. The US views itself as "a nation of immigrants" and yet is troubled by the recent large influx of immigrants, particularly illegal migrants and refugees. While Americans recognize that the "brain" reduces the development capacity of developing countries, the US still needs and benefits from young immigrants trained in the sciences, engineering, and computers. Caribbean participants were also ambivalent about immigration. They consider immigration "a way of life" and a "right," but they also recognize that there are significant developmental costs to some types of migration. While many want the US to keep a wide open door to Caribbean immigrants, they are aware that most Caribbean Community (CARICOM) governments are currently closing the door to immigrants even from other CARICOM countries.     

THE EFFECT OF PROVIDER CONTROL OF BLUE SHIELD PLANS ON HEALTH CARE MARKETS

Blue Shield plans often are granted regulatory advantages by the states in which they operate. Run efficiently, such not-for-profit firms should use these lower costs to eliminate their less advantaged rivals, the commercial insurers. However, these higher-cost commercial providers have been able to offer insurance coverage at prices competitive with the Blues, as evidenced by the fact that Blue plans have, on average, less than 50 percent market share. Similar prices with lower overall costs implies that economic rents are being earned, rents which a not-for-profit firm cannot distribute to owners. In this paper we argue that when there are competing goals among the groups controlling the Blue Shield plans, the different possible "uses" of the regulatory advantage become endogenously determined, necessitating the use of simultaneous equation estimation. Testing this model we find the major effect of doctor-control of Blue Shield plans is to raise doctors' fees while lowering the amount of rents captured by both consumers and administrators.     

Voting cycles and the structure of individual preferences

Empirical studies have shown that cyclical preferences are infrequent, but they have been less clear about why. Using thermometer ratings from nationally-representative samples of the U.S., we examine preferences for presidential candidates in order to determine what it is about them that leads to few cycles. Single-peaked preferences as usually construed (meaning that all of a set of preferences satisfy single-peakedness criteria) are, of course, rare. Yet we find a high degree of unidimensionality in the sense that for any given set of preferences, a relatively high proportion of the preference orders are consistent with single-peakedness. We also find that the highest amounts of unidimensionality often do not occur along partisan or left/right lines. Strong feelings for or against candidates, often not derived from an issue base, form the basis for the dimensionality discovered.We would like to thank Daniel Severance for programming the random model calculations and three anonymous referees, whose comments were very helpful in clarifying the presentation in this paper.     

Irregular migration: a rising issue in developing countries

The growing concern with illegal, or undocumented, migration in developing countries is described. The author notes that although such migration occurred in the past without causing concern, changing economic, political, and social factors since the 1970s have caused governments to attempt to control such flows. A review of regional trends is included, and the consequences of illegal migration for both countries of origin and destination are examined. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

Job transfers: a neglected aspect of migration in Malaysia

"This article examines the incidence of [job-related] transfers in Malaysia. The retrospective migration data from the Malaysia Family Life Survey [conducted in 1976-1977] are used to demonstrate that transfers comprise 18 percent of all migration in the country and that there has been a rise in the incidence of transfers over a 35 year period. Factors underlying this trend are outlined. Furthermore, significant differences in age, educational attainment and other characteristics between transferees and other types of migrants are identified and their implications discussed."